Is the U.S. Economy Set to Rebound from Summer Lull?

The Delta surge and supply chain snags have slowed growth—but the economy still has room to run. The U.S. Economy Hit a Late Summer Lull – Will It Rebound? Macroeconomic headwinds started to build throughout the summer, which was also when the surge of the highly contagious Delta variant started to take a toll. Many businesses reluctantly delayed office re-openings and in some parts of the country, indoor capacity restrictions were reinstated. The travel and hospitality industry largely reported that bookings hit a soft patch. Meanwhile, supply chains have not helped – product shortages, ballooning shipping costs, and backups at U.S. ports have hampered inventory restocks and snarled production at factories globally. Everything from cars to toys to Christmas decorations is in tight supply and starting to experience price pressures. The effect on U.S. growth was palpable – consumers trimmed spending on hospitality services and travel in July, and supply constraints led many economists to trim GDP growth estimates for Q3. In one notable recalibration, the forecasting firm IHS Markit lowered their Q3 GDP forecast from 7.8% in July to 3.6% by late September.1 --------------------------------------------------------------- [Are We Headed for Another Economic Rebound? Protect Your Investments in the Meantime!]( With questions surrounding the economy and whether a rebound is around the corner, do you know that there are things you can do now to navigate through these turbulent times? No matter the state of the market – if you focus on the fundamentals instead of fear and media hysteria, you can protect your investments for the long term. To help you navigate this market, we are offering an exclusive look into our just-released October Stock Market Outlook Report. This report contains some of our key forecasts to consider such as: - Zacks Rank S&P 500 Sector Picks - Zacks view on equity markets - What produces 2021 optimism? - Zacks forecasts for the remainder of the year - Zacks ranks industry tables - Sell-side and buy-side consensus - And much more If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! [IT’S FREE. Download the Just-Released October 2021 Stock Market Outlook2]( --------------------------------------------------------------- Taken together, the persistent pressures on the global economy have led many investors to increase inflation expectations while lowering growth expectations, and for some, the outlook for the U.S. economic expansion has soured. I’ve even noticed the more frequent use of the term “stagflation” in the news lately, which describes the scenario of high inflation and low or negative growth. I think these worries are overblown. Households have a record $142 trillion in net worth, wages are on the rise, and there are still roughly as many job openings as there are unemployed Americans. Consumers are paring spending on big-ticket items, like vehicles and furniture, but they are spending more in areas like retail and services. According to one estimate, households have still only spent about 25% of 2021’s stimulus payments. In a sign that spending and growth remain in an upward trend, personal outlays on goods and services rose 0.8% in August compared to July, according to the Commerce Department. As you can see in the chart below, U.S. consumer spending has not missed a beat. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis3 August also saw companies report a strong increase in new orders for durable goods, such as appliances, computers, TVs, and home furnishings. Even though a late-summer lull may have seen consumers hit the ‘pause’ button on economic activity, businesses are still largely reporting a struggle to meet demand in the marketplace. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis4 Finally, I remain optimistic about the economic expansion because of further labor market improvements I see in the coming months. September was the first month that the expanded federal unemployment benefits expired, and school re-openings should pull some workers off the sidelines. There is, of course, no shortage of jobs waiting for those who re-enter the workforce – as I mentioned previously, the number of job openings in the U.S. roughly equals the number of unemployed Americans. Wages are also higher. Bottom Line for Investors If there is one thing I’ve learned about economic expansions over the years, it is that analysts are always looking for reasons to doubt the expansion’s resilience. July’s weak retail spending, which showed sales at retailers and restaurants falling -1.1%, was enough for many to start calling into question whether growth would last. A short period of weak growth coupled with largely expected high inflation readings was enough to declare stagflation. I disagree. In addition to the fundamentals detailed above, I would also point out that the economic drag from the latest Covid-19 surge was far more tempered than previous surges, which to me indicates the economy and businesses have learned and are adapting. In my view, aggregate demand and future growth were not lost as a result of the Delta surge but were merely delayed by a few months. I’m adjusting my growth expectations higher for Q4 2021 and 2022, accordingly. In the meantime, I recommend that you focus on the fundamentals and facts that can positively impact your investments in the long term. Make the most out of this market! Our [just-released October Stock Market Outlook report5]( will help you do just that. This report is packed with newly revised predictions that can help you base your next investment move on hard data. For example, you'll discover Zacks’ view on: - Zacks Rank S&P 500 Sector Picks - Zacks view on equity markets - What produces 2021 optimism? - Zacks forecasts for the remainder of the year - Zacks ranks industry tables - Sell-side and buy-side consensus - And much more If you have $500,000 or more to invest and want to learn more about these forecasts, click on the link below to get your free report today! [FREE Download – Zacks' October 2021 Stock Market Outlook Report5]( About Zacks Investment Management Zacks Investment Management was born out of one of the country’s largest providers of independent research, Zacks Investment Research. Our independent research capabilities from our parent company truly distinguish us from other wealth management firms - our strategies are derived from research and innovation, including the proprietary Zacks Rank stock selection model, earnings surprise and estimate revision factors. At Zacks Investment Management, we work with clients with $500,000 or more to invest, and we use this independent research, 35+ years of investment management experience, and tools we’ve developed to design customized investment portfolios based on each client’s individual needs. The end result is investment management that is research driven, results oriented and client focused. Ready to get serious about pursuing your financial goals? Call [1-800-701-9830](tel:8007019830) today, or schedule a time with a Zacks Wealth Advisor. © Zacks Investment Management | [Privacy Policy]( 1[Wall Street Journal. September 29, 2021.]( 2 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion. 3[Fred Economic Data. October 1, 2021.]( 4[Fred Economic Data. October 4, 2021.]( 5 Zacks Investment Management reserves the right to amend the terms or rescind the free Stock Market Outlook offer at any time and for any reason at its discretion. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Inherent in any investment is the potential for loss. Zacks Investment Management, Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zacks Investment Research. Zacks Investment Management is an independent Registered Investment Advisory firm and acts as an investment manager for individuals and institutions. Zacks Investment Research is a provider of earnings data and other financial data to institutions and to individuals. 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