Long Island and the 2020 Race to Watch

Plus: What's Bloomberg thinking? [Politics Brief from WNYC + Gothamist] [Keep friends and family informed. Forward the Politics Brief.]( Who Will Replace Peter King on Long Island? By [James Ramsay]( Spencer Platt/Getty After 14 terms in office, Republican Congressman Peter King is not running for re-election in 2020. And it's far from certain that another Republican will take his place. New York's 2nd Congressional District, which includes a chunk of Suffolk County's south shore and a sliver of southeastern Nassau County, saw its most competitive race in years during the 2018 midterms. Rep. King beat his Democratic challenger, Liuba Grechen Shirley, by 6 points; he'd won his previous three elections by an average of 27 points. "It’s going to be an extremely difficult seat for the Republican Party to hold," former Suffolk County Republican Chairman John Jay LaValle [told Politico](. "Compounded with the fact that we’re in a very blue state and there will be any number of states up for grabs across the country, this might not be the highest priority for the [National Republican Congressional Committee]." Though he's been labeled [a moderate]( by some, King really came to embody the interests and idiosyncrasies of white, working-class Long Island. He built a reputation for bi-partisanship by working with Democrats to get post-Sandy aid and support for 9/11 first responders. And he opposed the 2017 GOP tax bill, which caps property tax deductions for many homeowners in his district. But even with a growing Latino constituency, he sided with President Trump as an immigration hardliner. And then there's the thing he may be remembered for the most: his 2011 hearings on what he called the radicalization of American Muslims. WNYC's Arun Venugopal, who covered those hearings, says King's argument was that there were too many mosques in the U.S. "He also floated a rumor that most American mosques were run by extremists," [says Venugopal](. Grechen Shirley, the Democrat who narrowly lost to King in 2018, [told Gothamist]( last year that the incumbent had lost touch with his constituents. But that doesn't mean his constituents are eager to flip the district; the University of Virginia Center for Politics recently switched its rating for the district from likely Republican in 2020 to "leaning Republican." What's likely to happen now, according to [Hofstra's Larry Levy]( "This seat becomes more competitive and should attract A-list marquee candidates and millions of dollars from around the country." So far, Jackie Gordon, a military veteran and Councilmember from Babylon with an endorsement from EMILY's List, is the lone Democrat in the race (She declared back in May). She could be joined by Suffolk County D.A. Tim Sini and State Senator Monica Martinez. Among Republicans, Suffolk County Legislator Tom Cilmi is considered a possible favorite. And Former Rep. Rick Lazio, who lost to Hillary Clinton in a 2000 Senate race and again lost a gubernatorial election in 2010, is reportedly considering a run. Grechen Shirley, a mother of two who successfully got the Federal Elections Committee to allow candidates to spend campaign funds on childcare, has yet to declare a run for 2020. But she has said she's "[seriously considering]( it. Bloomberg Is Going Where Few Candidates Have Gone (Yet): Arkansas Though former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has yet to officially announce his candidacy as a Democratic presidential hopeful, he did recently file paperwork to appear on primary ballots in Alabama and Arkansas. As [we've covered]( in this newsletter, Bloomberg has been saying he'd enter the race if Biden started slipping in the polls. And Biden is ([sort of]( slipping. But...why does Bloomberg think he's the candidate who needs to step in? (As opposed to, say, former Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick, who's also now [planning to jump into the race]( According to [the Times]( Bloomberg conducting a bunch of polls and decided that a) his "biography in business and government" is compelling to voters, and b) he has a viable strategy in skipping Iowa and New Hampshire and focusing now on Super Tuesday states like North Carolina, Arkansas and Alabama. The gamble: If a commanding front-runner doesn't emerge from the early primaries, he'll be there to pitch himself as a capable, moderate Democrat who can win a general election. Bloomberg [previously said]( that if he entered the race, he'd need to go on an "apology tour" to atone for things like his stop-and-frisk policy and his history of [sexist comments](. No word on whether that's still part of the plan. Meet Six New York Democrats Challenging Incumbents in the 2020 Primaries In no particular order, you have: - Lindsay Boylan, a former special adviser to Gov. Cuomo, running against Rep. Jerry Nadler in District 10. - Jamaal Bowman, a Bronx middle school principal, running against Rep. Eliot Engel in District 16. - Melanie D'Arrigo, a Long Island health and nutrition specialist, running against Rep. Tom Suozzi in District 3. - Shaniyat Chowdhury, a Queens bartender, running against Rep. Gregory Meeks in District 5. - Lauren Ashcraft, a stand-up comedian and former project manager at J.P. Morgan, running against Rep. Carolyn Maloney in District 12. - Mel Gagarin, a student and stay-at-home dad, running against Rep. Grace Meng in District 6. They're not ideological clones (they're also not the only people challenging incumbents next year), but these six politicians are all younger, more progressive candidates than the people currently representing their districts. They're all trying to mimic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's 2018 upset primary win over Joe Crowley. And they were all photographed and written up in this handy profile. ([City & State]( What Can New Jersey Lawmakers Accomplish Before 2019 Is Over? Now that Election Day has passed, lawmakers in Trenton are entering a two-and-a-half-month lame duck period before the next — [and slightly altered]( — Assembly class takes over. In theory, that means it's go-time for Democrats, who control both chambers of the legislature, and can now pass a bunch of laws without worrying if it'll hurt them at the ballot box. Some priorities on the table: rebates for drivers who buy electric cars (plus a broader network of charging stations), bans on flavored vapes and menthol cigarettes, and a ban on single-use plastic bags. On cannabis legalization, which is perhaps the biggest goal that Democrats have yet to achieve, there was growing support for making it a ballot question and letting voters decide. But now, Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin says there's a chance the legislature could pass a bill before the end of the year. "We had the votes in the Assembly the last time," Coughlin said. "And I’ll leave it to the Senate president [Steve Sweeney] to tell you whether he has those votes." ([NJ Spotlight]( An Update on the Other Local Who's Currently Running for President Charlie Neibergall/AP New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker, having successfully blown through [a do-or-die fundraising goal]( earlier this fall, is still in the race. But he's sitting at under 3 percent in [an average of national polls](. In this [hour-long interview with Jonathan Capehart]( Booker argues that polls this early don't reflect a bigger truth: that voters haven't actually made up their minds yet, and name recognition is still buoying candidates like Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. "I have elder relatives of mine, black folks, who are like, 'I like Joe Biden, he was Barack Obama's person,'" Booker says. "That's gonna be there for a while." Whoever gets the Democratic nomination, though, Booker says it's essential that they boost black turnout in Detroit and Milwaukee. "We cannot win — there is no pathway through the swing states — without record turnouts from African Americans," he says. "If your big issue is beating Donald Trump, please think about who is going to put together the coalition that had record turnouts in '08 and '12." Support WNYC + Gothamist Make a donation to support local, independent journalism. Your contributions are our largest source of funding and pays for essential election coverage and more. [Donate]( Copyright © 2019 New York Public Radio, All rights reserved. Our mailing address is: New York Public Radio 160 Varick Street New York, NY 10013 [unsubscribe]( [update preferences]( [privacy policy](