Over/Under on Fed Rate Hike Today

The plunge in discretionary has not seen this amplitude since the Great Depression, when the Roaring 20s came to a spectacular close and the days of golden licentious days of Fitzgerald gave way to gray solemn Steinbeck. ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ May 3, 2023 |  [View Online]( |  [Sign Up]( Over/Under on Fed Rate Hike Today “Eat your betting money, but don’t bet your eating money.” –Anonymous gambler’s adage Dear , “Normally when we are discussing problems with banks, it’s after a credit cycle. We haven’t even started the credit cycle,” says Former Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan on Bloomberg Surveillance. “We’ve got the credit issues yet to come…” and later, “We’re in the second or third inning of this issue.” The conventional understanding among experts is that the Fed will raise rates another 25 “bips” again today at 2pm EST. The market expects today’s committee decision to be the last interest-rate increase for a while. Call it a “Hawkish pause.’’ All quiet in the stadium of our savings. Amid continued softness in the banking sector, more tightening at bat today. Credit creation is harder and harder to justify. If we are to expect Kaplan’s “credit issues” in later innings… POWERED BY RESOURCE STOCK DIGEST #1 Stock in Green-Energy Space Investors are cashing in on the green-energy revolution in 2023 as the world seeks to attain net-zero! And they're doing so by investing in select small-cap mineral exploration companies that are set to be the NEXT suppliers of the green-energy sources the world needs most in the clean-energy transition. We've done our research… and we've found an under-the-radar mining stock — currently trading below US $0.20 per share — that just confirmed MULTIPLE salt dome anomalies on its properties. [It's all in the FREE report you can get here.]( CONTINUED... The last cheers and jeers of an era of Mouse-click money fizzling as fixed income traders— institutional and individual— flee to quality. Meaning bigger and bigger banks. “Another hike you've got to be kidding Americans,” a comment reads on YouTube. The sports analogy remains apt. Reminder: Three of the four largest-ever bank failures have happened since March.(Source: Washington Post) Regional bank stocks continue to take the heat as regional bank fears persist. PacWest plummeted 28%. Western Alliance ended Tuesday down 15%. Zions, Comerica and Key, all fell between 9-12%. While the similarities to the ‘08 crisis are there, the constant specter of inflation reminds us that this is a crisis of the employed. The increasingly difficult cost of living continues to be the Fed’s primary demon to fight. And yet, the consumer shows remarkably little sign of rollover. We can look at discretionary spending as a way in. Cruise companies like Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line are scheduled to report earnings this week. Carnival’s earnings— which we have a position in and track regularly on The Essential Portfolio— indicate the cruise line industry’s January-through-March travel season was hot. I know my son, Henry, and his girlfriend’s family went to Cabo San Lucas on a whim in January. Carnival is the party one. Robinhood reports with incision: “Carnival said it achieved record quarterly booking volumes during a ‘phenomenal’ season, with sales at 95% of 2019 levels. Still, its bottom line was sunk by a nearly $700M loss. While cruise demand has rebounded as Americans splurge on experiences, higher costs (think: fuel) could weigh down profits.” “From what I’m seeing,” adds our Investment Director Zach Scheidt, “spending on travel and leisure is still strong. Another indication of this is strong casino stocks—LVS / WYNN / MGM—which benefit from similar consumer spending patterns. Affluent consumers still have cash to spend. Carnival and competitors should still have pricing power (higher ticket prices) to help them offset higher expenses. Still a bullish area IMO.” Henry was also at a casino in Meridian, Mississippi just last month. Is this younger generation part of the problem? POWERED BY VAULT METAL Little Known Law Could Confiscate Your Retirement Savings. If You Have $50,000 or More in an IRA or 401(k), BEWARE! Bail outs are a thing of the past…Now, the Fed and your Bank are conspiring to seize the funds in your checking and savings account to stabilize the economy. Luckily, there is a little-known tax law – that enables ANY American to legally move their money out of an IRA or 401(k) – tax-free! [This free "Bank-Bail In Guide" reveals the full details behind the sneaky law, big banks are praying you never see…Click here to download.]( # CONTINUED... A sign of confidence? Maybe. Arrogance? Less so. A hopeful ignorance. Bingo. The distortion between post-Pandemic splurge spending and real, important savings plays is evident when we look at how consumer credit has been expanding in relation to savings. Credit expanded while savings plummeted after the re-opening of the economy. People are traveling, going to restaurants, buying clothes, luxury pocketbooks, cars etc. mostly on credit and loans… Meanwhile the Fed continues its hawkish tear. Credit expanded while savings plummeted even as the economy reopened. People are traveling, going to restaurants, buying clothes, luxury pocketbooks, cars etc. mostly on credit and loans. A corollary drop in discretionary spending: The plunge in discretionary spending has not seen this amplitude since the Great Depression, when the Roaring 20s came to a spectacular close and the days of golden licentious days of Fitzgerald gave way to gray solemn Steinbeck. Meanwhile, Chairman Powell continues to hone his best impression of the inflation slayer, Paul Volcker. So it goes, Addison Wiggin Founder, The Wiggin Sessions P.S. The above charts were ripped from the Wealth365 live webinar we did on April 17th. If you missed it you can view it [here](. POWERED BY DEMISE OF THE DOLLAR The Daily Missive from The Wiggin Sessions is committed to protecting and respecting your privacy. We do not rent or share your email address. 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