Recession Soon?

The market is putting in a good performance so far this year. But the economy is still giving an icky feeling. [Shield] AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION [Wealthy Retirement]( [View in browser]( SPONSORED [Could Secret Tech Hidden in Ketchup Factory Make People RICH?]( Barron's says it's "going to be really, really big." J.P. Morgan writes that it'll "infiltrate every sector in some way in the coming years." BlackRock compares this tech to the internet in the early '90s and smartphones in the early 2000s, saying it will "very likely change people's daily lives." [Click here to discover the next big thing in tech.]( [MARKET TRENDS]( [Why Does It All Feel So Icky?]( [Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club]( [Marc Lichtenfeld]( A friend and I were discussing the market and economy the other day, and he emphatically stated, "There will definitely be a recession." He's not alone in his thinking. Nearly everyone with an opinion on the matter has come to the same conclusion. But anticipating a recession may be like expecting the Mets to win the World Series. I wonder if we're all waiting for something that is not going to happen. I don't come to that conclusion lightly. In fact, like most people, I said in January I believed we would have a recession, albeit a mild one, sometime this year. But I'm questioning that idea right now. Recession in 2023? While inflation is still too high, GDP did grow in the first quarter. Growth wasn't exactly white-hot at 1.1%, but it was positive. Importantly, it's tough to have a recession when unemployment is at record lows. And it seems that everyone is participating. The unemployment rate for African Americans, which is usually higher than that of other groups, was 5%, a record low. The unemployment rate for women is the lowest it's been in 70 years. And suffice it to say, in 1953, there weren't as many women who wanted to be in the workforce. Wages are climbing as well. Generally speaking, anyone who wants a job has one, they are probably making more money than they did last year and most can likely easily switch their jobs if they want to. It's hard to have a recession under those circumstances. Furthermore, the stock market, which is a forward-looking indicator, is up year to date. After an abysmal 2022, the S&P 500 has gained more than 8% this year. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq is up nearly 17%. It may not feel like it because the market has been choppy lately - especially with the news of various bank failures - but so far, the market is putting in a very good performance in 2023. [Chart: Market Performance Is Surprisingly Sturdy]( If we look at how stocks are performing, we can see that it suggests a recession is not imminent. But it's not all clear skies ahead. This market and economy don't feel good. SPONSORED [The single greatest medical breakthrough of all time?]( We are on the cusp of a medical breakthrough. And soon, this single breakthrough could lead to the cure of over 6,000 genetic diseases, including Alzheimer's, heart disease, and even cancer! This reminds me of Amgen, where early investors made as much as 46,751% when they released their revolutionary drug to the market. [Get all the details here ]( Inflation is pinching everyone's budgets. Several banks have failed, and there is concern that more will follow. Plus, the debt ceiling is a big wild card. If the president, House and Senate can't get together on a deal and the government shuts down as a result, there will be some real economic pain inflicted on the American people. Despite the Federal Reserve lifting rates, the bond market is not following. Ten-year Treasurys still yield around 3.5%, signaling that rates should fall. And the futures market predicts a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September. Energy prices have come down in recent weeks - another sign of weaker economic output. And, of course, the news that comes out on a daily basis with random (and not random) acts of violence, ineptitude in Washington and geopolitical concerns do nothing to instill confidence. How to Prepare So how should you play it? For your safe and short-term funds, there are few better deals than Treasury bills right now. If you're concerned about a U.S. debt default, you can always buy a certificate of deposit instead. If you have money to put to work in the stock market, don't wait. It may feel like it's not the right time, but that was the case in early 2009 when the economy was still a mess. And yet that was precisely the right time to invest. Furthermore, you can't time the market. By the time you and others believe we have the all-clear signal, the market will be much higher than it is now. Again, the market looks forward. So if the economy is better, the market will have already moved. I particularly like the energy sector and metals. If we avoid a recession, those sectors and others should do well. And because the energy sector has fallen over the past few weeks, there are a lot of cheap energy stocks. In fact, if you're looking for some exposure to the energy markets, then you should [check out my #1 pick for 2023](. It's - without a doubt - the [most promising oil and gas opportunity]( I've ever seen. And it'll help you bring in more monthly income. ([Click here for all the details.]( I think regional banks are also interesting and are perhaps offering the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Their prices have gotten smashed, and there are quality banks that are paying yields over 7%. This is obviously a volatile sector right now, so if you put money to work in the regional banks, you need to be prepared for a wild ride. But I expect investors to be well rewarded over the long term. Lastly, remember the best time to buy a stock is when it feels uncomfortable. That means you're probably getting a great price because so many others have sold it. What are your thoughts? Are we going to see a recession soon? Let me know in the [comments](#comments). Good investing, Marc [Leave a Comment]( [Explore the Wonders of Israel, Jordan and Egypt]( RECOMMENDED LINKS [We've Gone From an Income Desert to an Income OASIS...]( [Stock Legend Takes Down Biden Economy in Epic Video]( MORE FROM WEALTHY RETIREMENT [Image of the Netflix logo on TV with remote]( [Is Netflix Stock a "Buy"?]( [Image of a stock earnings follow profits concept]( [Most Investment Systems Won't Work... but This Will]( [Image of a Verizon sign]( [This 6.7% Yield Isn't as Safe as It Used to Be]( [Image of a bull market vs. bear market concept]( [Let It Bleed and Earn 12% per Year]( [Facebook]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Twitter]( [Email Share](mailto:?subject=A%20great%20piece%20from%20Wealthy%20Retirement...&body=From%20Wealthy%20Retirement:%0D%0A%0D%0AThe market is putting in a good performance so far this year. But the economy is still giving an icky feeling.%0D%0A%0D [Email Share](mailto:?subject=A%20great%20piece%20from%20Wealthy%20Retirement...&body=From%20Wealthy%20Retirement:%0D%0A%0D%0AThe market is putting in a good performance so far this year. But the economy is still giving an icky feeling.%0D%0A%0D [Push Alert]( [Push Alert]( SPONSORED [Will Biden Destroy the Dollars in Your Wallet?]( First it was Nixon... and now it could be Biden. On August 15, 1971, Nixon shocked the world by slashing the ties between gold and the dollar. It set us up for surefire failure... the consequences of which we are paying for today. Now it's Biden's turn. This time I suspect he'll go even further. [Click here to see why I'm convinced he'll start confiscating cash on June 14.]( [The Oxford Club]( You are receiving this email because you subscribed to Wealthy Retirement. Wealthy Retirement is published by The Oxford Club. Questions? Check out our [FAQs](. Trying to reach us? 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