Where Is The Bottom Of This Bear Market?

What is going to happen next? [image] [image] Still More To Got! The major indexes are now officially in bear territory. They have all dropped at least 20% and many are down even more so we are definitely in a bear market. The real question is where is the bottom of this bear market? When will it end? The answer is both simple and complicated. But we can look at: - Average length - Technical analysis - Fundamental analysis In a nutshell, I look for economy to go into a recession in the 4Q of this year or, more likely, the 1Q of next year. That means that the stock market will likely bottom in the first quarter of next year. Here’s why. Let’s go through these one at a time. [Look Over Courtney's Shoulder As He Makes Moves You've Never Seen Before. Click here to learn more!](=) History tells us that bear market last about one year. I think this particular bear market might last slightly longer because the Fed is starting their tightening cycle at a much lower level than they usually do. Normally interest rates are around two or 3% before the Fed starts to tighten. But this time, they are starting to zero so it’s going to take more months before they peek out. In addition, the economy is coming into this recession with a lot of upside momentum and so it will take longer before it turns around and starts to go down. Remember that the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy so we need to see the economy in the middle of the recession before stocks will start to rally. I think that is going to take until the first quarter of next year and possibly into the second quarter. Another reason for the longer lead time is that the economy got very distorted when the government shut down the economy in 2020 then handed out hundred dollar bills on the street corner to stop the 2020 recession. Technically, the average bear market drops about 30-35% so we still have a ways to go. 3 of the last 12 bear markets dropped over 40% and this could be one of those. But you may be thinking that there is not much distance to go on the downside. How could the bear market go all the way to first quarter of next year? The problem is that markets don’t go straight down or up. In fact, I think the market will rally this week and next and that will delay the bottom by another month. This process of rallies taking a month to rally and then drop is what will cause the market to drag to the lows in first quarter. Further, we have a good chance to see a two month rally in the normal fall seasonal bullish period so, once again, that will delay the low until the first quarter. *********************************************************** Live Trading With Courtney! Announcing! A new hybrid course, My Money Making Machine!This course is all about short term trading the stock market. You get access to How To Quit Your Job Trading Stocks and Options (TSO) plus live trading the techniques with Courtney!This is the ideal way to learn how to trade profitably. Study the techniques with the online course then join Courtney twice a week for 8 weeks as he analyzes the market, picks the bet trades, and puts them on in his own account! Look over the should of a pro trader as he creates money out of thin air! [Click here to apply now.]( ************************************************************* Fundamentally, the Fed is at the beginning of the tightening cycle to counteract inflation. The last cycle peaked at 3% and the one before that at 5%. The Fed has already said they will raise rates by a full 1% before the end of the summer but that leaves them at least 1% below the 3% target of the last recession. So I think that will take until the end of the year to trigger a real recession. But it may take longer! The best time to buy stocks is in the depth of the recession which is another reason I’m looking for 1Q2023 as a preliminary target for the bottom of this recession. It also coincides with the timing factors outlined above. But now the best way to make money is through bearish strategies. But you have to be nimble because we are going to see a lot of sharp rallies during this bear market. The best way I can help you make money is through subscribing to my Stock Navigator service where I give you my actual trades I’m doing in my account. Of course, I’m making money in this bear market and expect to make more throughout the year. Don’t lose money in this bear market! Joint the winning team by clicking here to learn more and apply for membership! Thanks! Good bear trading, Courtney Smith P.S. One of the things you get when you join the Stock Navigator is my daily Macro Report. This unique video briefing outlines what is going on in the world and how you can make money from it. I just got this yesterday: “ "Thank you, Courtney. Each daily Macro Report and weekly WSW video that I watch, I find absolutely fascinating and enjoy learning from you.You're an amazing asset to have in my portfolio." - Robert Robert is talking about my daily video report, the Macro Report, where I tell you what the next big moves are and then share specific stock trades to make money from them. There is not report like this in the world! [Click here to learn more about the Stock Navigator and to apply to join.](=) Words To Live By The bear side doesn’t appeal to me any more than the bull side, or vice versa. My one steadfast prejudice is against being wrong. Even as a lad I always got my own meanings out of such facts as I observed. It is the only way in which the meaning reaches me. I cannot get out of facts what somebody tells me to get. They are my facts, don’t you see? If I believe something you can be sure it is because I simply must. When I am long of stocks it is because my reading of conditions has made me bullish. But you find many people, reputed to be intelligent, who are bullish because they have stocks. I do not allow my possessions—or my prepossessions either—to do any thinking for me. That is why I repeat that I never argue with the tape. To be angry at the market because it unexpectedly or even illogically goes against you is like getting mad at your lungs because you have pneumonia. Where to get more Courtney! Youtube: [Freebee Wall Street Winners]( Podcast: [The Courtney Smith Show]() Substack: [courtneysmith.substack.com](=) Medium: [Courtney Smith – Medium]() [Profile Image] COURTNEY SMITH WealthBuilder LLC Work (702) 761-6837 | Text Message (702) 718-8588 Support@WealthBuilderLLC.com CourtneySmith.com Share The Love If you like Trade Secrets, then please pass it on to your nearest and dearest so they can [sign up]( too. If you believe in the power of good journalism, make it something you subscribe to. Sharing is caring. [image] 1. 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