Who Earns More: Us Or Our Parents?

World War III is already underway, and it’s a battle of the ages June 24, 2024 | Peel #736 Silver Banana goes to... [Brilliant. ]( In this issue of the Peel: - 🥊 World War III is already underway, and it’s a battle of the ages - 🍔 One great American institution is still holding on strong - 🚭 The ArmaggedZyn has caused many casualties but should be over soon Market Snapshot 📸 Banana Bits 🍌 - It’s been 377 days since the S&P dropped more than 2% in a day, the [longest streak since the GFC]( - Consumer spending data is still [holding up strong overall]( - Our favorite certified smarty pants just published their [mid-year outlook]() - Get ready for what’s been called the “Manhattan Project of pharmaceutical stimulants” that is the [Trump vs Biden debate this week]( Juice Your Job Like Jim Simons Only true finance pros can pronounce “EBITDA”, just like only true finance pros know that Jim Simons is the Wall Street GOAT, not Warren Buffett. His secret to success? Math brilliance. 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And you can [try it free for 30 days.]( Learn math like Simons and invest in yourself like Buffett - what more could an investor need? Don’t work harder or smarter - work Brilliant. Macro Monkey Says 🐒 World War III: Gerontocracy vs Young People We’ve never been for inciting riots, but then again, we’re always down to try new things. And if there was ever a reason for one, this is it. Or, at the very least, it’s definitely a better reason to go rob a Target, and we’re already doing that anyway, so… Young people across the globe are facing a new paradigm—for the first time since we’ve been able to keep track, our generations are not doing as well as their parents were at the same age. The U.S. presents what is probably the best microcosm of this. Let’s get into it. What’s Happening? If it seems to you like it’s harder to develop economic independence and security than it was for your parents, you are correct. [Source]() Here, we can see that since WWII, the percentage of Americans earning more than their parents did has declined precipitously with each generation. People like Scott Galloway, an NYU Professor, [talk about this]( a lot. However, Scott and others seem to think this is a problem new to the 21st century when, in fact, it has been going on for nearly a century now. The most alarming part of the above graph can be seen in the 1980s cohort when, for the first time ever, less than half of 30-year-olds were earning more than their parents did at age 30, even when their parents were earning the median income. And it’s not just incomes that are a problem: [Source]() According to Scott’s team’s analysis, the average home costs 7 years of the average income, far higher than the 3 and 4 years it took earlier generations. Meanwhile, the cost of earning a degree—even at public colleges—has more than doubled as a percentage of income compared to our parents and has more than tripled that of our grandparents. So, young people today are getting squeezed on both absolute income and income relative to the cost of basics like housing and education. I just have three words: This is bullsh*t. How Do We Fix It? For starters, those elected to shape society at the national level—members of Congress—are a lot older than we’re used to. This partially makes sense, given that birth rates declining relative to that of death necessitates a rise in the median age of a population. But this is getting absurd. If we look at the median age of the largest generational cohort among Congresspeople, we can see that the aging of the median member of Congress is actually speeding up. [Source]() So, a starting point to fix this nationwide screwing of young people is to vote them into office. You have to be 25 to run for the House and 30 to run for Senate, so for anyone born from 1994—1999, I beg you to replace practicing your elevator pitch for stump speeches. But, it’s also not as simple as just old people voting in benefits for their peers, such as no-brainer increases in Social Security checks, while legislation impacting young people, like Child Tax Credits or military benefits, can’t get through without years of fighting. [Source]( Speaking of the decline in birth rates, we can see that today’s birth rate is less than half that of the birth rate during the post-WWII baby boom. With fewer and fewer people having kids, fewer people will care about the next generation out of a lack of “skin in the game.” Incentivizing childbirth and investing in their well-being through things like increasing investment in and localizing public education would help to turn these issues around and make us care about the next generation again. Other factors like the loss of purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, decline in vocational training programs, exportation of low-training jobs overseas, a drop off in homebuilding rates, and much more contribute to this as well, but unfortunately, I have a word limit. The Takeaway? The “get off my lawn” generation needs to recognize the importance of upholding the social contract with young people. Otherwise, there won’t be enough people earning enough money to support things like Social Security. While younger people today undoubtedly grew up with more material comfort and access to information and communication, I think most of us would happily trade that for a return to a similar economic opportunity afforded to our elders. And these issues aren’t just economic, as we can see a dramatic increase in deaths of despair among young people, leading to the recent decline in life expectancy in the U.S. Hopefully, this motivates young people to work their *sses off even more so than their parents because we’re gonna need to. And, maybe some of the elder apes among us can understand where we’re coming from. Or, in the worst-case scenario, young people can just start that riot we were talking about. What’s Congress gonna do? Wheel away on their walkers? What's Ripe 🤩 Hertz (HTZ) 📈16.0% - After up-charging me despite the humiliation that came with renting a neon orange Kia Soul, Hertz is starting to improve its cash flow problems. - The firm is issuing up to $1bn in less sh*tty debt to pay off half its $2bn in revolving credit and improve its current $1bn annual free cash flow deficit. - The new debt includes $750mn in senior secured notes due 2029 at 12.6% and $250mn in convertibles at 8%. McDonald’s (MCD) 📈2.2% - At least one great American institution is still doing well. The heroes at McDonald’s are taking arms alongside JPow and fighting inflation. - The company released a $5 meal deal that smells a lot like the Wendy’s Biggie Bag, one of history’s great innovations. - The goal is to bring in more traffic as Americans increasingly view fast food as a “[luxury.]()” What's Rotten 🤮 Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) 📉12.9% - George Washington is crying in the club right now as Americans apparently feel no need to flex their right to bear arms weeks before the country’s birthday. - This freedom, I mean, *firearms manufacturer tanked Friday on poor earnings and a worse outlook, expecting a 10% sales decline in Q1 next year. - This is especially strange in an election year, likely explaining why analysts seem so shocked at the company’s lousy guidance. Palantir (PLTR) 📉6.7% - The Street is listening, apes, as Palantir shares tanked on a [call we made months ago](=). Their valuation is finally getting recognized as a problem. - No better sector exists for investors in 2024 than where AI meets defense. But, given the 271% gain since the start of 2023, analysts are getting nervous. - When runups occur, the firm’s margin of error narrows, hence the $20/sh price target issued on Friday, implying a 22% downside from Thursday. Thought Banana 🤔 ArmageddZyn Just weeks after we were hyping up Phillip Morris like a tobacco lobbyist with COPD, everyone’s favorite product is disappearing faster than Boeing whistleblowers. Zyn, the tobacco-free nicotine pouches taking over America more than the “HAWK TUAH” girl, is in short supply. If you weren’t ready to riot after Macro Monkey, you better be now. Let’s shut down a highway or vandalize the Sistine Chapel or some sh*t. What Happened? Despite communist attempts to crack down on Zyn in the upper levels of Congress, Americans can’t get enough. In 2023, over 385mn Zyn cans were distributed across the U.S. by Phillip Morris’ North American branch of subsidiary Swedish Match, our hero of the day and the inventor of Zyn. In 2024, that number is expected to jump 35.1%. [Source]( The issue comes down to Swedish Match North America’s underestimation of how chill Americans are, expecting us to require far fewer stimulants. But there’s nothing like staring at Excel and buzzing off a zynfinite amount of nicotine. Go into any corporate office in America and you’ll probably see more tins of this stuff than you’ll see ties. As such, there is only one Zyn production plant in the U.S. based out of the town of Buttf*ck, Kentucky. However, SMNA has announced plans to launch another site later this year and into 2025, so hopefully, the zynsurrection can hold off for a while. The Takeaway? This national tragedy has plagued gas station shelves for weeks now. Like American troops abroad, just one loss is too many, in our view. But the good news is this abominatzyn should be over soon. Stay strong, apes. The Big Question: What other products have experienced similar shortages in recent years? Is this a buy signal for the demand or a sell signal based on poor supply chain management? Banana Brain Teaser 💡 Previous 🗓 In country C, the unemployment rate among construction workers dropped from 16 percent on September 1, 1992, to 9 percent on September 1, 1996. If the number of construction workers was 20 percent greater on September 1, 1996, than on September 1, 1992, what was the approximate percent change in the number of unemployed construction workers over this period? Answer: Approximately 30% decrease Today 🕐 In a box of 12 pens, a total of 3 are defective. If a customer buys 2 pens selected at random from the box, what is the probability that neither pen will be defective? Send your guesses to vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says 🤓 “An investment in knowledge pays the best interest” — Benjamin Franklin How Would You Rate Today's Peel? 😁[All the bananas]( 😐[Meh]( 😩[Rotten AF]( Happy Investing, David, Vyom, Jasper & Patrick [ADVERTISE]() // [WSO ALPHA]() // [ACADEMY]( // [COURSES](=) // [LEGAL](=) [Unsubscribe]( IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 14435 Big Basin Way PBN 444 Saratoga, California 95070 United States