💼 April Added More Finance Jobs

U.S. private non-farm payrolls added 192k jobs in April… not bad. May 3, 2024 | Peel #702 Silver Banana goes to... [NativePath. ](20Street%20Oasis///) In this issue of the Peel: - 💼 U.S. private non-farm payrolls added 192k jobs in April… not bad. - 🚗 Last year, we gave Carvana a Platinum Banana. Now, they’re still up! - 🍎 Apple announced a $110bn share repurchase program. Market Snapshot 📸 = Banana Bits 🍌 - Skydance has some competition for Paramount now, with [Apollo and Sony]()ponying up $26bn as the prior’s exclusivity period ends - Coinbase smashed expectations, but because good news is bad news, [shares are off after hours]() - Sales of weight-loss drugs are gaining weight at Novo Nordisk, more than doubling annually, but [shares fell on earnings]() - Peloton’s CEO is finally dipping out as [shares fall even further](, maybe creating the first stock to fall over 100% of all-time - Little out of the blue, but I was glad to see that one of you wise apes finally figured out [how to use medicine]() Restore Your Youthful Glow Collagen loss as you age may result in weaker joints, wrinkles, and a decline in overall vitality. It’s a natural process, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing you can do to slow it down. Replenishing collagen can restore your vibrancy and power, and the journey starts with NativePath. NativePath’s grass-fed collagen powder features a premium formula that absorbs rapidly, rebuilding strength and enhancing beauty from within. Simply add one or two scoops to your daily routine and witness the transformative effects. [Get 55% Off Today](20Street%20Oasis///) Macro Monkey Says 🐒 Vibe Check Everybody always asks “what’s the vibe?” or “wow, how did David kill the vibe so fast?” but nobody ever asks “how’s the vibe doing?” Today, we seek to answer all of those questions—asked or unasked—because soon, we’ll get the latest official vibe check of the U.S. labor market. The BLS’s Employment Situation Report gets released in a few hours, so for all of you non-disappointments-to-your-parent that actually do regain consciousness before 8:30am, let’s speculate wildly on what hell we’re in for. The Numbers According to one of the nation’s largest HR software providers, ADP, U.S. private non-farm payrolls added 192k jobs in April, continuing the streak of potentially Too Hot To Handle job growth numbers we’ve seen all of 2024. [Source](=) Job gains were strong across the board unless, ironically, you happen to identify as a tech nerd. These guys have been soaking up jobs and raking it in since the printing press was invented, outside of that teeny, little dotcom crash thing, but the past 1.5 years have been especially strong for anyone who knows what the hell a C++ is. Leisure & hospitality, construction, and trade, transportation, & utility jobs led the gains. But, good news for you soon-to-graduate apes—jobs in “Financial Activities” grew by a whole 16k. So, finding a job in the U.S. isn’t quite as shooting-fish-in-a-barrel-easy as it was immediately post-pandemic, but there are still plenty of roles to go around… unless you’re looking for roles in IB, obviously. [Source](=) And as we can see above, employers are especially horny to steal somebody else’s old employees. Pay gains for job switchers have bumped back up to where they were last summer after a slowdown in hiring last fall and winter. These wage gains are also following the previously unheard-of trajectory where low-wage workers are experiencing the fastest pay gains… on a percentage basis, not in real dollars… don’t go crazy on me now… [Source]( Seeing this data, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why inflation has come back to f*ck our sh*t up again (pardon my language, hate using the “i” word). So, to summarize, in 2024 so far, we have: - Added 829k jobs, way stronger than expected and way more than the 494k in the last quarter of 2023, - Seen wage growth spike back up, and - These gains have been broad-based, confirming that this is one thing in finance that hasn’t purely been boosted by AI The Takeaway? Maybe the Fed’s dovish pivot and accompanying Santa Claus rally was really in the labor market—not the stock market. If the BLS data today confirms the strong performance that ADP is alleging, this certainly could translate into JPow ruling that his previous ruling out of higher rates is in fact a rule that needs to be broken. I’m gonna be in therapy for weeks attempting to accept the fact that the next move for rates might, in fact, be higher. And I suggest you apes call your local overpaid psych major as well because, unfortunately, it seems like this is all too possible. So, to answer our earlier questions, the labor market vibe is good. Too good, in fact. And it’s pretty obvious how David killed the vibe—by saying in yesterday’s edition that Hate Bein Sober is by Juice WRLD instead of Chief Keef. Shoutout to “Sam” for the correction and calling for this “Pls Fix” that finally got me fired. = What's Ripe 🤩 Carvana (CVNA) 📈33.8% - So far, the winner of the esteemed 2023 Platinum Banana Company of the Year Award (Carvana) is doing a helluva lot better than prior winners (like FTX). - Let’s hope it stays that way. With numbers like this, shouldn’t be too hard as the used car retailer posted EPS of $0.23/sh vs the $0.74/sh loss that was expected. - Due to one time adjustments, those aren’t really comparable. But, revenue beat by 14.6% and adj. EBITDA margins rose to 77%, causing shares to rip faces off of short sellers. Qualcomm (QCOM) 📈9.7% - 2024 is the year of the nerds. Just think—the dorkier the company, the better the stock has done, and Qualcomm’s solid Q1 earnings just confirmed this. - EPS came in at $2.42/sh on sales of $9.4bn vs estimates for $2.32/sh on $9.34bn. - Although expecting weakness in Q2 from their premier unit—chips sold to smartphone makers—no one cared as Qualcomm’s NPUs dominate the market. - NPUs are “natural processing units.” Any phone with them, Qualcomm calls an “AI-powered smartphone” so is this the Nvidia your phone has been waiting for? What's Rotten 🤮 Etsy (ETSY) 📉15.1% - The day good ol’ American consumerism dies, that’s the day America dies too. Based on Etsy’s latest earnings, that day might be close… - This pure play on discretionary spending sh*t the bed as revenue grew just 0.6% to $646mn, in line with estimates, while EPS of $0.48/sh missed by 1 cent. - Gross merchandise sales fell 5.3% on the core Etsy site and 3.8% in total. Usually, volume or price is the problem, but Etsy decided to go with and instead. Zillow Group (Z) 📉4.9% - Clearly, the present values of Zillow’s future cash flows should be falling 5% on next quarter’s guidance coming up a whole $19mn short. Should’ve been 50%. - The original WSO Alpha pick sank despite beating on sales by 3.9% and posting narrower than expected losses of $23mn, flat compared to last year. - As go homebuyers, so goes Zillow. And in case you’ve been living under a rock, on Mars, with a tin foil hat on, you know wannabe homebuyers are getting screwed harder than Kim K. Thought Banana 🤔 Earnings Spotlight: Apple Inc Rumors are swirling—alleging that Shawty may, in fact, have had them apple bottom jeans… some sources even go as far as to say they had the boots and (and!) the fur. We can’t confirm these reports. However, we can confirm that the words “Apple” and “bottom” have no business being anywhere near each other after last night’s earnings report. Let’s get into it. The Numbers iPhone revenue missed, iPad revenue missed, and “Other” products missed too. So obviously, shares gained just over 6% in response. Thankfully, The Kingpin of Cupertino beat on Mac and Services revenue, leading to an overall sales beat of 0.82% at $90.75bn. Earnings beat, too, clocking in at $1.53/sh vs the $1.50/sh expected. Quite honestly, those are abysmal numbers for the likes of Apple. But, to maintain their Silver Medal as the “world’s most valuable company,” Apple is flexing on everyone, showing that they could easily buy any public company in the world outside the 134 largest by market cap. The firm announced $110bn in buybacks for 2024, up 22% from last year and setting a new record for the largest share repurchase program in history… beating out themselves from last year for the Gold Medal here. But, as we can see above, sales are still down compared to last year and last quarter. Q2’23 is a tough base, however, as CEO Tim Cook made clear on the conference call, given that last year included revenue from delayed C-19 iPhone orders. Net income was down just 2.17% from last year, largely due to strong cost cuts that allowed margins to continue to expand. If that wasn’t the case, the 10% annual decline in iPhone sales would’ve taken quite a toll. However, a shifting revenue mix in favor of services is accretive to margins anyway, given that software-based services have a much lower associated variable cost. At $23.9bn, Apple’s Services revenue now makes up more than that of the iPad, Mac, and “Other” combined. [Source](=) No guidance was given, but Tim Cook had to tease us a little bit, implying sales growth would be in the “low single digits” for Q3 (counting is tough when you’re worth more than $2tn). The Takeaway? Besides Nvidia, Apple’s earnings round up the Q1 releases from the so-called “Magnificent” 7. Down 6.8% YTD while the S&P is up 6.8%, I’d hardly call Apple’s recent returns “magnificent.” The AI boom, as of right now, is helping more so on the cost side for firms like Apple. We know companies like Microsoft and Google are looking to turn on the revenue switch ASAP, but as long as this new tech is helping pad margins, that’s all that matters. 💭 The Big Question 💭: Will Nvidia continue to carry the torch when they report on the 22nd? How and when will Apple step into the AI game and what kind of returns can we expect because of that? Are we past peak iPhone? Banana Brain Teaser 💡 Previous 🗓 Al and Ben are drivers for SD Trucking Company. One snowy day, Ben left SD at 8:00 am heading east and Al left SD at 11:00 am heading west. At a particular time later that day, the dispatcher retrieved data from SD’s vehicle tracking system. The data showed that, up to that time, Al had averaged 40 miles per hour and Ben had averaged 20 miles per hour. It also showed that Al and Ben had driven a combined total of 240 miles. At what time did the dispatcher retrieve data from the vehicle tracking system? Answer: 2:00 pm Today 🕐 Of the land owned by a farmer, 90 percent was cleared for planting. Of the cleared land, 40 percent was planted with soybeans and 50 percent of the cleared land was planted with wheat. If the remaining 720 acres of cleared land was planted with corn, how many acres did the farmer own? Send your guesses to vyomesh@wallstreetoasis.com Wise Investor Says 🤓 “Innovation distinguishes between a leader and a follower.” — Steve Jobs How Would You Rate Today's Peel? 😁[All the bananas]() 😐[Meh]( 😩[Rotten AF]( Happy Investing, David, Vyom, Jasper & Patrick [ADVERTISE](=) // [WSO ALPHA]() // [ACADEMY](=) // [COURSES](=) // [LEGAL](=) [Unsubscribe]( IB Oasis Corp. (aka "Wall Street Oasis") 20705 Saint Charles St Saratoga, California 95070 United States (617) 337-3353