Why the US struck Yemen

Plus: A brief history of the Iowa caucuses   Good afternoon! Here’s what’s on tap today: UP FIRST: US-UK airstrikes in Yemen CATCH UP: A brief history of the Iowa caucuses — Nicole Narea, senior reporter   UP FIRST US and UK hit Houthis in Yemen [Ecuadorian troops patrol in Quito, Ecuador, Jan. 9, 2024. Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa on Tuesday declared ''internal armed conflict'' and mobilized the army to combat organized crime linked to drug trafficking, following an escalation in violence in the South American country.] MOHAMMED HUWAIS / AFP Yemen’s Houthis, a militant rebel group partially in control of that country and backed by Iran, have launched dozens of attacks on commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea in recent weeks in protest of Israel’s bombardment of Gaza. Those attacks were repeatedly denounced by Western powers — but had only led to some military posturing rather than outright violence, until Thursday night. The US and UK struck over 60 Houthi targets in Yemen in what President Joe Biden said was a “[direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks](.” US Air Forces [claimed]( Houthi “command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems” were destroyed. The US’s actions could risk stoking regional escalation of the war in Gaza. Given that the Houthis have [vowed to retaliate](and that [mass protests broke out in Yemen]( Friday characterizing the strikes as “terrorism,” they seem to have only stoked anti-US sentiment. Here’s some background on the attacks and how we got here: - The Houthis, in brief: The anti-West, minority Shia Muslim sect controls Yemen’s capital and most of the country’s population, but is not recognized internationally as Yemen’s legitimate government. - Houthi attacks have disrupted global trade: Shipments of everything from oil to consumer goods have been delayed, and some companies are rerouting their ships around the Cape of Good Hope. - The US-UK attack was anticipated: It came after a final warning issued by the US and its Western allies last week that the Houthis would “[bear the responsibility of the consequences](” if they continued their attacks. The group responded by detonating an explosive unmanned surface vessel near a US Navy ship and several commercial ships, but not close enough to damage them. - A lose-lose situation for the US: Thanassis Cambanis, senior fellow and director of the policy think tank Century International focused on Middle East issues, told me that the strikes “represent a sort of trap”: “Washington has to respond to the outrageous Houthi attacks on international shipping — but now the US is involved in a direct armed conflict with the Houthis that only benefits the Houthis.” - A PR win for the Houthis: Through the crossfire, the Houthis have been able to “reap the benefits with their own constituencies of being seen to stand up for Gaza and against the US and Israel,” Cambanis said. That gives them [leverage]( in discussions over the future of Yemen following a 2022 UN-brokered ceasefire in the country’s civil war. - The risk of regional conflict: Experts are divided on just how much the strike risks further escalation, but Cambanis believes there’s cause for concern: “Perhaps the US and other regional players can pull back before we elsewhere in the region see the kind of total conflict we’re already seeing in Gaza. But we’re squarely in the danger zone.”   CATCH UP The time-honored, possibly dying Iowa caucuses [A Palestinian man dressed in all black stands in the ruins of a bombed room, pointing towards the missing exterior walls; all around him are pieces of broken household goods.] Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images Republicans are holding their Iowa caucuses on Monday, and it might be a quieter affair than it has been in the last half-century as the first contest of the presidential campaign calendar. In large part, that’s because former President Donald Trump is widely expected to have a dominant showing in the contests. But it’s also because Democrats adopted a new primary calendar this year that no longer puts Iowa first, as well as a new mail-in process for Iowa voters to express their presidential preferences. So there’ll be no crowds hyping President Joe Biden. In many ways, it’s strange the caucuses ever became more than the tame proceedings we seem to be headed toward this year. In fact, they weren’t initially intended to play such an outsize role in American presidential elections at all. This week, I wrote about how the Iowa caucuses’ rise to prominence was, as one political scientist told me, just a “quirk of history” whose importance dates back to Jimmy Carter, whose strong performance in the state determined his path to the presidency and inspired many candidates after him. Carter’s win began the perception that the caucuses can catapult candidates to their party’s nomination or even the White House — and doom candidates who underperform expectations. They became so significant only because the media, donors, and candidates themselves ascribed significance to them as the first contest. Ironically, the Iowa caucuses as we know them today were a product of reforms designed to make electoral politics more inclusive — the same objective that some Democrats [now cite in seeking to put the tradition to rest](. For more, read my story, “[How Iowa accidentally became the start of the presidential rat race](.”   VERBATIM 🗣️ “Voters are kind of mad and cranky about pretty much everything right now, and we’re seeing that across all the data. That extends to the current administration.” — [Natalie Jackson,]( a longtime pollster and the vice president of the public opinion research firm GQR, on a possible explanation for why Biden’s poll numbers with young people are so low. [[Vox](]   AROUND THE WEB - Taiwanese to hold elections Saturday: China, which lays territorial claim to Taiwan, has framed the elections as a choice between "peace and war" and vowed to quash the struggle for Taiwanese independence. [[Reuters](] - Israel defends against genocide accusation: Israel argued Friday before the United Nations’s top court that it’s acting in self-defense in Gaza following the October 7 attack by Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that many countries consider a terrorist organization. [[Wall Street Journal](] - More student debt relief to come: The Biden administration is set to forgive the debt of borrowers who have been making payments for at least 10 years and who borrowed less than $12,000 at first. 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