The global risks of a second Trump presidency

Plus: Re-examining the question of genocide in Gaza, how podcasts became a necessary campaign stop, and more. October 28, 2024 [View in browser]( [Joshua Keating](is a senior correspondent covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict. [Joshua Keating](is a senior correspondent covering foreign policy and world news with a focus on the future of international conflict.   What a Trump presidency would look like in a much more dangerous world [Donald Trump speaks to the media before boarding Air Force One at Andrews Air Force Base on January 12, 2021.] Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images Editor's note: With the election just days away, Today, Explained is devoting this week to looking at the highly consequential stakes of the presidential election for the world, for immigrants, and more. Today, Joshua Keating, Vox's senior correspondent covering foreign policy, explores how a Trump presidency would react to a global situation that's far more complex — and infinitely more dangerous — than even eight years ago. No less an authority than Vladimir Putin has predicted that the coming years in global affairs will be a “[revolutionary situation](”: a reference to a [line of Vladimir Lenin’s from 1913](, just prior to World War I. This doesn’t mean World War III is inevitable or even likely. But it does mean we are in an era when the decisions of major leaders in moments of crisis could have an outsize impact on global security and the lives of millions. This also is the moment when Donald Trump may return to the presidency. When Trump was elected in 2016 it didn’t exactly feel like a very peaceful or stable moment in world history. The Syrian civil war and the US-led campaign against ISIS [were raging](. In June, one of the terror group’s sympathizers [killed 49 people](at a gay nightclub in Orlando. Russian-backed forces were occupying much of Eastern Ukraine and [shot down a Malaysian airliner](. Ted Cruz was [terrifying 3-year-olds]( on the campaign trail by telling them the world was “on fire.” And yet, viewed from the vantage point of this year, 2016 feels like a simpler time. Wars of all types have gotten [more common and deadlier](, and superpower conflict — a concern that had largely receded in the post-Cold War era — is back on the agenda. In short, the global situation Trump would inherit if he were elected this time around would be far more dangerous and unpredictable. And that in turn raises the risks of his erratic and transactional approach to foreign policy. What was, eight years ago, a localized “gray zone” conflict in Eastern Ukraine is now the first major land war in Europe in decades, one in which Russia’s president has repeatedly [threatened to use nuclear weapons](. Israel’s war in Gaza, already one of the [deadliest conflicts for civilians]( of the 20th century, is [fast spiraling into a regional conflict](. Further east, potentially even more dangerous conflicts loom. Many North Korea watchers believe the country is [preparing for war](, and that the risk of all-out conflict on the Korean peninsula — which [could potentially kill more than a million people](, even if North Korea doesn’t use its nuclear arsenal — has never been higher. Then there’s Taiwan, where a war would mean a [body blow to the global economy](. If the US came to Taiwan’s aid, it could lose [as many troops in a matter of weeks]( as it did in 20 years of fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan. Some analysts believe China could even [preemptively attack US bases]( in the Pacific if it believed US intervention was inevitable, something the US military has not experienced since WWII. And the threat of nuclear weapons use would loom over the conflict: China has the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, [one that is growing fast](. None of this is to downplay the wars and security threats that existed in 2016 and continued through Trump’s presidency, nor the obviously massive disruptive effect of the Covid pandemic. But state vs. state conflict, and even superpower vs. superpower conflict, is an entirely different matter than war against terrorist groups. Recent [rapid advances in drone technology]( and [artificial intelligence]( are likely to make the wars of the future all the more unpredictable, and potentially more destructive. All of which makes the idea of putting back in the Oval Office a president who [proudly calls]( his foreign policy approach “crazy” so dangerous. A world on fire Even putting aside the issues of Trump’s temperament, [mental acuity](, or the warnings from [multiple]( [senior]([national security]( [officials]( from his own past administration that they believe he is dangerously unqualified for the presidency, there are several reasons to believe that a new Trump presidency would amplify this “revolutionary situation” rather than moderate it. First, Trump does not put much value in the idea of territorial integrity. We tend to take for granted that in our current era, [countries rarely conquer each other and borders are rarely changed by force](. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has obviously [challenged this taboo]( against what the [UN Charter calls](the “threat or use of force against the territorial integrity” of other countries. As president, Trump [reportedly told other world leaders]( that the Crimean peninsula, which was illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014, is rightfully Russian because everyone there speaks Russian. Figures close to the Trump campaign like [Tucker Carlson]( and [Elon Musk]( have openly endorsed the view that Crimea is rightfully Russian. Trump overturned decades of US policy and international consensus by recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which [he has described]( as a snap decision made after a quick history lesson from his ambassador to Israel and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. He [did the same]( for Morocco’s claims over the disputed region of Western Sahara, in return for Morocco recognizing Israel. (In fairness, the Biden administration hasn’t reversed either of these moves — once the taboo is broken, it’s hard to reestablish.) For Trump, the president who after all, mused about [buying Greenland](, sovereignty and territorial integrity are like anything else in a deal: negotiable. Second, Trump doesn’t value alliances. He tends to take a narrowly transactional view of them. His antipathy to NATO and threats to pull the US out of the alliance [have been well-documented](, as have his comments that treat the US defense of Asian partners like [Japan](, [South Korea](, and [Taiwan]( as a protection racket. The third point is Trump’s attitude toward nuclear weapons. Defying many predictions [made at the dawn of the nuclear age](, no nuclear weapon has been used in war since 1945, likely thanks to both a bit of luck as well as the power of nuclear deterrence and the very justified fear these weapons cause. Trump, though, seems a bit more blase on the topic. According to former aides, Trump discussed using a [nuclear weapon against North Korea]( as president during the period he was publicly threatening Kim Jong Un’s regime with “fire and fury.” As president, he [withdrew](, or[let lapse]( a number of key arms control treaties, most famously the Iran nuclear deal, instead preferring an approach where the US would [build up its own nuclear arsenal to spend its rivals into oblivion](. Recently on the campaign trail, he suggested that a reason presidents need legal immunity is so they could [use nuclear weapons without fear of legal repercussions](. A number of US allies in [Europe]( and [Asia]( are now actively debating over whether they need nuclear deterrents of their own, driven in part by concerns over whether they could actually count on the US nuclear umbrella. Ultimately, the question is not whether Trump is a hawk or a dove. It’s what a return of the chaos and unpredictability that marked his first tenure will mean in a world where the risk of cataclysm is now so much higher. Read the [full story here](.   [Listen]( Is there a Dr Pepper in the house? Dr Pepper has overtaken Pepsi as the second-bestselling soda in the US. Its rise helps explain dirty sodas, healthy sodas, and the overall explosion of the beverage market. [Listen now](         [Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries in Paris, France, on October 27, 2012.] Bertrand Guay/AFP via Getty Images What's behind the rise in sex trafficking cases: The disturbing recent allegations against Abercrombie’s former CEO, music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs, and rapper Kanye West point to a larger pattern of high-profile figures being accused of sex trafficking. A former prosecutor we spoke to said [it’s not a coincidence that these details are coming out in the aftermath of infamous cases like R. Kelly and Jeffrey Epstein](. Beyoncé finally joins Kamala on the campaign trail: After rumors of a Democratic National Convention appearance in August [turned out to be false](, on Friday evening, Beyoncé performed at a rally for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris in Beyoncé’s hometown of Houston. It’s a long-anticipated team-up, since the “Freedom” singer has allowed use of her hit song for Harris’s campaign. [But do musical celebrity political endorsements even matter?]( Reexamining the question of genocide in Gaza: The Palestinian death toll now exceeds 40,000. Last year, Vox [interviewed scholars]( about how to think about the events of Israel’s war in Gaza. Some were willing to call it a genocide, but most were hesitant due to the high threshold required to define a “genocide” under international law. [Now, many of those same scholars have changed their minds, and feel that the legal requirements for genocide have been met](. How dudes with podcasts were crowned election-cycle royalty: Former President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris have made unusual campaign stops on the podcast circuit, with Trump most recently sitting down for an interview with infamous podcaster Joe Rogan and Harris garnering headlines for her visit to Call Her Daddy with Alex Cooper. [Here’s a field guide to the handful of interviews happening on the campaign trail, and what’s to come](. Is this really Venom’s Last Dance?: Out this past weekend, the latest Marvel film asks a simple question: Is this Tom Hardy’s last hurrah as journalist-turned-anti-hero Eddie Brock? The movie has two post-credits scenes that hint that [this might not be the end of the alien’s superhero era](. And elsewhere ... The Menendez brothers could be released: A Los Angeles district attorney has recommended that Erik and Lyle Menendez be resentenced. The pair, currently serving a life sentence, were convicted of murdering their parents in a controversial 1989 case and are the subject of [a recent Netflix drama]( and documentary. A judge would have to agree with the recommendation, and a parole board would have to approve their release. [[BBC](] Crew-8 returns to Earth: After their trip was extended several times, NASA's Crew-8 mission members have returned to Earth after spending 235 days in space. It was the longest of any human mission on a SpaceX spacecraft. [[NPR](] [Roscosmos cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin (L) NASA astronauts Michael Barratt (2nd L) Matthew Dominick (2nd R) and Jeanette Epps (R) after having landed in the Gulf of Mexico off the coast of Pensacola, Florida on October 25, 2024] Joel Kowsky/NASA via Getty Images   Four in 10 Democrats According to an Axios poll last spring, that’s how many Democrats surveyed were open to the idea of the US government deporting undocumented immigrants en masse. While that support might seem shocking, Americans’ opinions on immigration are more complicated than any one question can capture. Immigration is a top issue for voters this election, but there’s substantial confusion in the country about what different immigration policy plans might actually entail. Senior politics reporter Christian Paz writes about [what recent polling shows and the current window for pro-immigrant candidates to make a vocal case for Americans and immigrants](. [Republican National Convention attendees hold signs that read “Mass Deportation Now!” on the third day of the gathering in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on July 17, 2024.] Alex Wong / Getty Images   Are you enjoying the Today, Explained newsletter? Forward it to a friend; they can [sign up for it right here](. And as always, we want to know what you think. Specifically: If there is a topic you want us to explain or a story you’re curious to learn more about, let us know [by filling out this form]( or just replying to this email. Today’s edition was produced and edited by senior editor Lavanya Ramanathan, with contributions from staff editor Melinda Fakuade. We'll see you tomorrow!   [Help us reach our goal!](   [Help us reach our goal of 5,000 new Vox Members by Election Day. Support journalism that empowers, informs, and drives the conversation.]( [BECOME A MEMBER](   Ad   [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [YouTube]( [Instagram]( [TikTok]( [WhatsApp]( This email was sent to {EMAIL}. Manage your [email preferences]( [unsubscribe](param=sentences). If you value Vox’s unique explanatory journalism, support our work with a one-time or recurring [contribution](. View our [Privacy Notice]( and our [Terms of Service](. Vox Media, 1701 Rhode Island. NW, Washington, DC 20036. Copyright © 2024. All rights reserved.