Will bird flu make things more ... eggspensive?

Plus: India's overseas assassination plots, America's oversize cars, and more April 30, 2024 [View in browser]( Good morning! We've already talked about the rise of bird flu in mammals, including dairy cows in at least nine states. It's also continuing to rip through chicken farms across the country. Senior reporter Whizy Kim is here to figure out what this all means for your grocery bill going forward. —Caroline Houck, senior editor of news   [Eggs are seen at a grocery store ] Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images Why egg prices are rising again Egg prices are rising again. The culprit, again: bird flu. At least, that’s the surface-level reason. In the current wave, [according to the CDC](, the H5N1 bird flu has been found in over 90 million poultry birds across almost every state since 2022, and has even spread to dairy cattle, with over 30 herds in nine states dealing with an outbreak at the time of this writing. The last time bird flu struck US farms, in early 2022, egg prices more than doubled during the year, reaching a [peak of $4.82 for a dozen in January 2023](. During the bird flu outbreak in 2014 to 2015, egg prices also [briefly soared](. While prices now are still nowhere near the peak they reached in January 2023, they’ve been creeping up again since last August, when a [dozen large eggs cost $2.04](. As of March, we’re bumping up against the $3 mark, which is a nearly 47 percent increase. It’s also a huge increase from the price we were used to a few years ago: In early 2020, a dozen eggs were just $1.46 on average. The H5N1 strain of bird flu is highly contagious and obviously poses a big risk to hens. But the fact that bird flu outbreaks keep battering our food system points to a deeper problem: an agriculture industry that has become brittle thanks to intense market concentration. [chart showing the number of chickens raised on mega-factory farms increase from about a billion in 1987 to more than 7 billion in 2022. The number not raised in such facilities decreased from just over 3 billion in 1987 to 2 billion in 2022. ] The egg market is dominated by some major players The egg industry, like much of the agricultural sector, is commanded by a few heavyweights — the biggest, Cal-Maine Foods, controls [20 percent of the market]( — who leave little slack in the system to absorb and isolate shocks like disease. Hundreds of thousands of animals are packed tightly together on a single farm, as my colleague [Marina Bolotnikova has explained](, where disease can spread like wildfire. According to the government and corporate accountability group Food & Water Watch, three-quarters of the country’s hundreds of millions of egg-laying hens are crammed into [just 347 factory farms](. The system also uses genetically similar animals that farms believe will maximize egg production — but that [lack of genetic diversity]( means animal populations are less resistant to disease. When a hen gets infected, stopping the spread is an [ugly, cruel business](; since 2022 it has led to the [killing of 85 million poultry birds](. For the consumer, it often means paying a lot more than usual for a carton of eggs. Preventing any outbreaks of disease from ever happening isn’t realistic, but the model of modern industrial farming is making outbreaks more disruptive. And it’s not just these disruptions driving price spikes. Egg producers also appear to be taking advantage of these moments and [hiking prices]( beyond what they’d need to maintain their old profit margins. “It is absolutely a story of corporate profiteering,” says Rebecca Wolf, senior food policy analyst at Food & Water Watch. Cal-Maine’s net profit in 2023 was about $758 million — 471 percent higher than the year prior, according to its [annual financial report](. Most of this fortune was made through hoisting up prices; the number of eggs sold, measured in dozens, rose only 5.9 percent. Last year, several food conglomerates, including Kraft and General Mills, were awarded [almost $18 million in damages]( in a lawsuit alleging that egg producers Cal-Maine and Rose Acre Farms had constrained the supply of eggs in the mid- to late 2000s, artificially bumping prices. A [farmer advocacy group last year]( called on the FTC to look into whether top egg producers were price gouging consumers. [Rows of thousands of chickens inside a large barn.] Edwin Remsberg/Getty Images Are we doomed to semi-regular price surges for eggs? Our food system didn’t become so consolidated — and fragile — by accident. We got here because of three big reasons, Wolf says: by not enforcing environmental laws, by not enforcing [antitrust]( laws, and by giving away “tons of money” to the agriculture industry. During the New Deal era, the federal government put in place [policies]( that would help manage food supply and protect both farmers and consumers from sharp deviations in what the former earned and the latter paid. Under Secretary of Agriculture Earl Butz in the 1970s, though, [those policies started getting chipped away](; Butz’s famous motto was for farmers to “get big or get out.” The spread of [giant factory farms]( is in part a product of this about-face in managing supply. Because our food system is so concentrated and intermingled, it also means any single supply chain hiccup — whether due to disease, wars, or any other reason — can have ripple effects on others, affecting prices in a vast number of essential consumer goods and services. “When we have things like E. coli outbreaks, it’s hard to know where the problem lies because the way that we process and manufacture is so hyper-industrialized that you then have a problem with millions of pounds of food,” says Wolf. Thankfully, the [Biden administration]( has been making some strides in loosening up food industry consolidation, often by [shoring up enforcement]( of [long-existing]( [antitrust laws](. But there’s still more we could do. There are bills that have been introduced to [Congress](, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Price Gouging Prevention Act, that would give the FTC the authority to first define what counts as price gouging and then crack down on companies that raise prices excessively. The cycle of food chain snags and higher prices doesn’t have to keep repeating. “We are maximizing profit truly over everything else — over the welfare of the animals, over the rights and wages of people who work in the food system, for even consumers who are at the grocery store,” Wolf says. “None of this is inevitable — we shouldn’t have to be here.” —[Whizy Kim, senior reporter](   [Listen]( The failed promise of egg freezing Egg freezing was once hailed as a reproductive game changer, but as Vox's Anna North reports, it might not live up to the hype. [Listen now](   HEALTH - Egg freezing promised women freedom. What did it really offer?: The procedure is big business in the US. [[Vox](] - How climate change fuels health crises: Look to Madagascar, where people are confronting rising malaria and malnutrition crises. [[MSF](] AMERICA - Why are 4 out of every 5 cars sold an SUV or pickup truck?: The ever-growing size of America’s cars are the result of specific government policies. 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