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Small-Caps Are Sizzling - Let's Cash In
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Hello my friend... How are you?
Happy Saturday and thanks for stopping by.
If this your first time here - "Welcome!"
If you've come by over the past couple of weekends, and acted on the recommendations in this column, well then -- "Congratulations."
Because the recent picks you heard about are performing nicely.
Both of the small-cap ETFs you read about on July 26th are up. The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) (which tracks one of our small-cap proxies) has gained +6.45%.
The ETF's price chart just made a bullish "golden cross" (purple arrow). That's where the fast-moving 50-Day Moving Average crosses above the slower-moving 200-Day Moving Average.
Typically, a golden cross foretells a breakout in the price of a stock or ETF.
Our second ETF from last week, the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) (which tracks our other small-cap proxy) is also up, by +6.61%.
IJR's price is approaching a key resistance level near $76.25. The 50-Day Moving Average is approaching the 200-Day. If IJR penetrates that key level we could see a real breakout in this small-cap ETF.
Finally, our pick from last week, the SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF (XSD) has also gained in value. It's up +1.68%.
And you're going to get another great recommendation today.
But before we turn to that, let's see how the "external" market acquitted itself over the past week...
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All five of the major averages crushed it this week, and small-caps positively outdid themselves.
(You probably knew I was about to say that; look at how well our two small-cap ETFs have performed.)
Our small-cap proxies finished in the top two spots. The Russell 2000 (RUT) gained an amazing +5.99% while the S&P 600 (SML) rose +5.34%.
The "big three" - the Dow Jones, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite gained +3.80%... +2.47%... and +2.45% respectively.
Very nice!
The "Internal market -- aka "sector breadth" -- is showing strength as well.
At True Market Insiders we break the market into 45 "mini-markets" or sectors.
Our custom-built data engine (called Sector Prophets Pro) lets us quickly see how the different sectors.
Here's how the sectors stood as of the close of trading last Friday (July 31st)...
The sectors colored blue are the ones the bulls control. Meaning, if you look at the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) charts for those sectors you'd discover that the chart is in a column of X's -- an indication of short-term strength.
The sectors colored red are the ones the bears control. Meaning, if you look at the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) charts for those sectors you'd discover that the chart is in a column of O's -- an indication of short-term weakness.
On July 31st the bears controlled 13 of the 45 sectors (29%). The other sectors were in the hands of the bulls.
Here's what the market looked like yesterday (August 7th)...
The bears controlled just 8 of the 45 sectors (18%). The other sectors were in the hands of the bulls.
One reason for this increasing strength in both the external and internal markets can be put down to earnings.
So far, 89% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual financial results for the second quarter of 2020. So far a full 83% of companies have reported EPS results that beat estimates.
According to FactSet (which aggregates earnings season data, among many other valuable metrics) "If 83% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008."
"In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 22.4% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average."
And according to Barron's, "Most of the small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 have also beat earnings expectations in the second quarter... and [w]hile small caps’ 2020 earnings growth is expected to lag behind that of their larger peers, analysts think their recovery trajectory should come in ahead of large caps in 2021."
Ok... How can we cash in on this market strength, and especially small-cap strength?
Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF (GSSC) is designed to give you investment results that track the performance of the Goldman Sachs ActiveBeta U.S. Small Cap Equity Index.
For its part, the index is designed to give exposure to small-cap U.S. stocks. Also, the Index looks to provide investors with exposure to certain "factors" that typically drive a stock's performance versus the market.
Factor investing is an approach that targets those drivers. For example the approach we take at True Market Insiders (which you can call "relative strength investing") focuses a lot on a factor called "momentum".
That is, we look to be in the strongest stocks and ETFs that reside in the strongest sectors. The bedrock idea is that "something in motion tends to stay in motion". So once a stock or sector starts outperforming, it'll likely (although not definitely) continue to do so.)
Other factors are things such as "value" (targeting stocks trading at a discount to relative to their supposed fundamental value)...
And "quality" which targets stocks of financially healthy firms.
More than 75% of the ETF's holdings are concentrated in five broad sectors -- Healthcare... Financials... Industrials... Information Technology... and Consumer Discretionary.
The fund is up 53% since bottoming with the market on March 23rd.
It's very close to putting in one of those golden crosses we talked about a moment ago.
This ETF doesn't trade options, so this will be a straight purchase.
I'm excited to see how this investment performs for us.
Thanks for reading, and I'll see you soon.
And I hope you'll take 30 seconds to save a seat in Costas Bocelli's FREE online event called ["10 Years of Profits"](.
Costas and all of True Market Insiders are celebrting an amzing achievement -- the 10-year anniversary of his profit Skimmer service.
It's amazing because, in a world where most trading services last a year, two years tops...
Costas has been cranking out profitable trades for his readers for an entire decade.
[Go here to save a seat and celebrate along with Costas](!
Until then, have a great week!
[Bill_Sig](
Bill Spencer
Editor-In-Chief, True Market Insiders
P.S.: Remember - starting very soon -- perhaps as early as next week -- I will be publishing this column on Monday morning instead of on a Saturday or Sunday.
So now, if I recommend a stock or ETF, you can act on it immediately, if you want.
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DISCLAIMER
The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor’s investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. True Market Insiders LLC is not an investment advisor and is not licensed to give specific financial advice. The chairman of True Market Insiders, Chris Rowe, is also the CEO, CIO and owner of Rowe Wealth Management LLC, which is not owned by and is not the owner of True Market Insiders.
Information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services, issuer reports or communications, or other sources believed to be reliable (“information providers”). However, such information has not been verified by True Market Insiders or the information provider and TMM and the information providers make no representations or warranties or take any responsibility as to the accuracy or completeness of any recommendation or information contained herein. TMM and the information provider accept no liability to the recipient whatsoever whether in contract, in tort, for negligence, or otherwise for any direct, indirect, consequential, or special loss of any kind arising out of the use of this document or its contents or of the recipient relying on any such recommendation or information (except insofar as any statutory liability cannot be excluded). Any statements nonfactual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation or an offer to buy any securities, commodities or exchange traded products. This document does not purport to be complete description of the securities or commodities, markets or developments to which reference is made.
Unless otherwise stated, performance numbers are based on pure price returns, not inclusive of dividends, fees, or other expenses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Potential for profits is accompanied by possibility of loss. You should consider this strategy’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. The examples and information presented do not take into consideration commissions, tax implications, or other transaction costs.
The material has been prepared or is distributed solely for information purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or instrument or to participate in any trading strategy.
Some performance information presented is the result of back-tested performance. Back-tested performance is hypothetical (it does not reflect trading in actual accounts) and is provided for informational purposes to illustrate the effects of the True Market Insiders LLC strategy during a specific period. The relative strength strategy is NOT a guarantee. There may be times where all investments and strategies are unfavorable and depreciate in value. Relative Strength is a measure of price momentum based on historical price activity. Relative Strength is not predictive and there is no assurance that forecasts based on relative strength can be relied upon.
Back-tested performance results have certain limitations. Such results do not represent the impact of material economic and market factors might have on an investor’s decision making process if the investors were actually managing money. Back-testing performance also differs from actual performance because it is achieved through retroactive application of a model investment methodology designed with the benefit of hindsight. True Market Insiders believes the data used in the testing to be from credible, reliable sources, however; True Market Insiders makes no representation or warranties of any kind as to the accuracy of such data. All available data representing the full platform of investment options is used for testing purposes.