87% Chance of a Kamala Win? Here's How to Prepare...

Don't let crowd behavior kill your portfolio [TradeSmith Daily logo] [TradeSmith Daily logo] November 3, 2024 Note from Michael Salvatore, Editor, TradeSmith Daily: Recently, my friend and colleague Louis Navellier debuted his [“Day-After Summit”]( – a research presentation all about the opportunity to profit in the potentially chaotic postelection weeks and months ahead. If you don’t know Louis, he’s been called the “King of Quants” for his work in quantitative stock research. He has a proven track record stretching back decades, and just this year has closed out gains in Rambus Inc. (RMBS): 133% in 17 months… Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI): 593% gain (1/3 sell)… Gatos Silver Inc. (GATO): 46% in one month… and e.l.f. Beauty Inc. (ELF): 69% in 16 months. Once again, Louis wants to make sure as many folks position themselves to profit as possible. So, to catch the replay of Louis’ preelection summit… and to find out more about his postelection strategy… [here’s a link to watch his broadcast](. And here’s Louis with an election plan for what’s shaping up to be a chaotic week ahead… 87% Chance of a Kamala Win? Here’s How to Prepare… By Louis Navellier, Senior Analyst, InvestorPlace Dear reader, Betting markets favor a Donald Trump win… The RealClearPolitics Betting Average tracks odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets. It’s a snapshot of how bettors are viewing the outcome of the election. And it gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the White House. That sounds about right. Despite what his detractors say, he’s now more popular than ever among voters. And recent polling shows him making gains nationally and in key swing states. But I’ve been a professional investor for more than 40 years. And I can’t ignore what stock market history says about the prospect of a shock win for Kamala Harris. This from Kiplinger… In the 23 presidential elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by [stock market] gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In eight of nine elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. That’s an 87% accuracy rate. The benchmark U.S. stock market index, the S&P 500, is up about 7% since the start of July. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite are also showing gains over that time. If history is any guide, Harris, not Trump, is likely to be the next president of the United States. And that’s not the only indicator pointing to a Harris win. Since 1932, the incumbent party has always won reelection unless a recession occurred during the current term (in this case, President Joe Biden’s term). And right now, no matter how folks may be feeling about the U.S. economy, it’s not in recession. Data released yesterday shows the economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the recent quarter. That’s less than forecast… but it’s nowhere near recession levels. But as I told the more than 5,500 folks who joined me for my free-to-view [The Day-After Summit]( Tuesday night, the real story I’m preparing for is not what happens on Election Day. It’s what could be coming the day after – Wednesday, November 6. It doesn’t matter who you’re voting for. That’s when unprecedented social strife could be unleashed as both sides contest the election. It could also set off a chain reaction on Wall Street – including a bout of massive stock market volatility. This could be the most bitterly fought postelection battle in modern U.S. history – worse than Gore v. Bush in 2000 and Trump v. Biden in 2020. Now, the best thing we can hope for is a clear winner on November 6. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we still didn’t have a clear winner come Inauguration Day, on January 20, 2025. Fortunately, there’s a way you can not only avoid big potential losses… but also profit… as the most chaotic chapter of the election plays out. First, it’s important you understand that this isn’t my first big election call. SPONSORED AD [Critical Election Day Warning]( [image]( Something totally new has crossed my desk… The day AFTER the election, a “chaos convergence” of two events could send markets reeling… And trigger an event not seen in America since 1876. [Click here now to watch the replay of the Day-After Summit now.]( The “Age of Chaos” Is Entering Warp Speed Back in December 2023, I made a presentation about the “Californication” of America. I warned that Biden would drop out of the presidential race and be replaced by a California Democrat who would spread the state’s ultra-liberal policies across America. (I predicted that candidate would be California Gov. Gavin Newsom, not former California Attorney General Kamala Harris. But we indeed ended up with a liberal California Democrat instead of Biden.) I also warned that we were entering an “Age of Chaos” – a time of unprecedented chaos and danger for Americans. That presentation has now been viewed more than 3.2 million times. Folks who tuned in heard the steps I’ve recommended taking to prepare. But none of that compares to the volatility that could happen next week as the Age of Chaos enters warp speed. You see, this isn’t just about the votes we cast for president. On November 7, the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee will meet behind closed doors at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington, D.C., to vote on their policy for key interest rates. Right now, markets are expecting a quarter-point cut to follow the half-point cut we got in September. But it could be another half-point cut. Or the Fed could decide to leave rates where they are. That’s three more market-moving variables that will compound uncertainty after the election. In normal times, Fed decisions are big market drivers. But this is coming right after perhaps the most contentious presidential election in modern history. The entire country will be on edge. That could lead to even more severe stock market volatility as these two shocks hit our political and financial systems at once. Stocks could whipsaw violently as investors try to cope with all the uncertainty. And from what I’m hearing, investors are already getting nervous… Earlier this week, a colleague said she recently called her broker for a routine question about her IRA. He immediately asked, “Are you calling me to move your money out of the markets?” He went on to say he’d had a deluge of such calls over recent days due to fears of election chaos. You may be worried about your own nest egg. And that’s only natural. We’re humans, after all. And as humans, we tend to crowdsource our decision-making, especially when we’re facing fear and uncertainty. That’s as true today as it was 200,000 years ago. Don’t Let Crowd Behavior Kill Your Portfolio Imagine you and your hunter-gatherer tribe are moving to a place with more fresh water. On your way, you spot dozens of terrified members of another tribe running for their lives with terrified looks in their eyes. It’s a human stampede. Your instincts will tell you to run like the wind along with them. It doesn’t matter if you can’t see a saber-toothed tiger or a rival tribe brandishing their spears. You just know it’s time to run. This crowd instinct is one of the reasons we survived in the wild and became the dominant species on Earth. But the urge to join a stampeding crowd can kill your stock portfolio. The human brain is a marvelous tool for creating art, music, language, and feats of engineering. It’s a terrible tool for investing. That’s why, during my [Day-After Summit]( Tuesday night, I laid out an alternative approach to navigating the postelection chaos. It has nothing to do with following your instincts… or with human emotions. Instead, it’s a quantitative system I consider to be the No. 1 tool for anyone looking to turn uncertain macroeconomic, financial, or political events into outsized stock market gains. In backtests, it’s identified 3,500 stocks that have gone on to soar 1,000% or higher. And the greater the volatility, the greater the potential gains. That volatility could be from a bitterly contested election. It could also be from any number of shocks that hit the market as the Age of Chaos plays out. Whether it’s a currency shock… Another supply-chain issue… A new law within the next president’s first 100 days in office… A new war breaking out… Or a powerful new technology transforming the world… If a shock event causes volatility to flare up, this system shows you how to trade it for gains. You can get full details of how it works, and how you can use it to position yourself to profit ahead of Election Day, by [watching my broadcast here.]( To get you started, I’ve included details of one trade you can place right now that I believe will pay off… no matter who’s eventually declared the winner. And if targeting short-term gains using a quantitative system isn’t your thing, that’s fine, too. Just remember that the worst thing you can do when volatility kicks up is to panic-sell out of your long-term stock holdings. The point is, we could be in for a trying couple of months. But eventually, we’ll have a new president. And markets will return to a more stable footing. You just may need plenty of patience… and a strong stomach… to ride out the churn between now and then. Sincerely, Louis Navellier Senior Quant Analyst, InvestorPlace Get Instant Access Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for research throughout the week. 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