Never Fear the "October Surprise"

Prepare to buy elite small caps like this one on the next pullback... [TradeSmith Daily logo] [TradeSmith Daily logo] October 8, 2024 Note from Ashley Cassell, Managing Editor, TradeSmith Daily: Our research indicates that smaller stocks are where the real “magic” will happen in the coming months, as you’ll read today from Lucas Downey. And in case you missed [Luke Lango’s investment briefing]( – that’s also how he recommends you prepare for Elon Musk’s robotaxi reveal on Thursday. Because, although Tesla is the one showing off a concept car this week… Luke believes that TSLA is actually not the [best way to invest in the trend now](. Luke has his eye on smaller companies that supply Tesla (and other automakers) with the components they need as they build their fleets of autonomous vehicles and race to dominate this early-stage market. Those stocks have gotten way less attention – until now – meaning they’re much cheaper than TSLA… and could take off even faster when Elon takes the stage Thursday. Already, Google has self-driving Jaguar I-PACEs on the road for its Waymo robotaxi service in Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Phoenix, Arizona – where Luke lives and has firsthand experience with the trend. Now, thanks to all the publicity from Tesla, the robotaxi opportunity is poised for another huge leap forward. [Watch this to get up to speed on this technology and the investment opportunity](. Now that these companies are in play, the automotive industry (and ride-sharing) will never be the same. Never Fear the “October Surprise” By LUCAS DOWNEY, CONTRIBUTING EDITOR, TradeSmith Daily Step outside in October and you’ll be greeted with cooler temps. Pass a coffeehouse and you’ll be met with a fragrant pumpkin-spice aroma. In the real world, October equates to a welcome seasonal change. In the stock market, however, election-year Octobers are known for pre-election shocks. This glitch when presidential elections experience out-of-the-blue events leading up to the vote has come to be known as the “October surprise.” Turns out the term October surprise dates back to the 1800s. But a few recent examples you’ll likely remember include 2012’s destructive Hurricane Sandy, 2016’s Clinton email scandal, and 2020’s COVID-19 outbreak in the White House. Is 2024 set for an October surprise of its own? Only time will tell. And while investors may face some hurdles this month, we’ll unpack a powerful trade setup to turn any sudden volatility from an unwelcome burden to a buying opportunity. Our year-end outlook is bullish, as [we were on record last week]( detailing. Today, we’ll refine that thesis with near-term, evidence-based analysis. That way, instead of fearing an October scare, you’ll be prepared for it. SPONSORED AD [Could Elon Musk’s Robotaxi Help You 20X Your Money?]( [image]( This coming Thursday night Elon Musk is set to reveal his new AI product he calls “Robotaxi…” And tech legend Luke Lango believes it could help send shares of [this little-known supplier skyrocketing by as much as 20X.]( The time to buy this sub-$3 stock is now. If you wait until after Elon’s Robotaxi event, it could be too late. [Click here.]( Preparing for a 2024 October Surprise The longer we go without a market pullback, the more it starts to feel never-ending. But history shows us that slips and trips come when you least expect them. Over the past year, we’ve experienced three notable declines – April, August, and early September. So, as you can see below in this chart of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), the path to higher highs isn’t a staircase… it’s more like three steps forward, one step back: [chart]( All too often, these pullbacks catch us off guard. But they don’t have to if we put our TradeSmith software to work, check out how the S&P 500 tends to perform in October of election years and prepare accordingly. As you can see by analyzing the last seven election cycles in the TradeSmith Seasonality tool, the large-cap index averages a 3.12% decline in October of election years: [chart]( Given that this negative return profile includes the 2008 financial crisis and the dot-com bust of 2000, clearly this data is heavily skewed by those recent market crises. We aren’t facing anything of the sort in 2024, so let’s not get too carried away with downside rhetoric. However, we do need to accept the fact that the month of October tends to be weak – then use this understanding to our advantage. When you examine election-year seasonality, there’s a repeatable pattern that emerge: Stocks dip in the first half of October before firming up in the back half. And it isn’t just large caps that experience this tendency. The tech-heavy NASDAQ 100 and small-cap Russell 2000 undergo similar action. From 1988 to 2020 in election-year Octobers, the first 15 days of the month saw the S&P 500 drop 2.83%, NASDAQ 100 fall 2.94%, and the Russell 2000 slide 3.78%, on average. Don’t frown. This is where the good news starts. Because beginning Oct. 16 – Oct. 31, these indices showed flat returns. And then finally, November through December saw solid gains averaging 2.55% in the S&P 500 and a whopping 7.3% for the Russell 2000 small caps: [chart]( For me, I’m welcoming an October surprise. If history is any guide, the playbook is simple: - Expect weakness through Oct. 15. - Start accumulating beaten-down gems around Oct. 16 and beyond. - Ride the seasonal rip! The small-cap surge of 7.3% in the final two months of the year gives this strategy extra thrust. Here’s a higher-octane way to play it. A Top-Ranked AI Stock for a Red October Back in May, I discussed how [a lesser-known AI stock was booming](. AI software requires a lot of data, and with that comes the need for bigger and more efficient data centers. This is where Vertiv Holdings (VRT) comes into play. Vertiv is in the business of all-in-one data-center needs like power, cooling, and monitoring. The stock isn’t volatility-free, as you would expect. However, VRT has absolutely trounced the S&P 500, climbing nearly 175% over the last year: [chart]( And when you take a peek at the revenue and net-income growth, it’s easy to understand why there’s so much excitement. In 2021, net income stood at $120 million and nearly quadrupled to $460 million in 2023. Then for this year, 2024 estimates have net income doubling again to $987 million: [chart]( That’s a powerful uptrend of both revenues and profits. Now let’s do a spot check on my favorite all-weather greenlight signal, [Jason Bodner’s Quantum Score](. A Quantum Score of 70 and above is the greenlight, meaning the technicals and fundamentals Jason assesses are lined up just right to get in now. And VRT is right in the buy zone, with a 74.1 rating: [chart]( So, to bring this all together: An October surprise should be expected. Major markets tend to fall heading up to the election – and having a gameplan is key. Start getting your buy list ready with all-stars like VRT, specifically for the second half of October. History shows that smaller caps tend to start climbing especially sharply in November of election years. To find the best prospects, TradeSmith tools like [Jason’s Quantum Edge system]( are arming investors with cutting-edge data to help make sense of repeatable patterns hiding in plain sight. Maybe this October, the real surprise for your portfolio will be how cheaply you can buy great stocks for a year-end rally. Regards, Lucas Downey Contributing Editor, TradeSmith Daily Get Instant Access Click to read these free reports and automatically sign up for research throughout the week. [25 Doomed Blue Chip Stocks]( [3 Stocks to Build Your Wealth in 2024]( [5 Unapologetically Profitable Stocks for 2024]( © 2024 TradeSmith, LLC. All Rights Reserved. P.O. Box 340087 Tampa, FL 33694 To unsubscribe or change your email preferences, please [click here](. [Terms of use]( | [Privacy Policy](