Apple Keynote Report 2024: Will the iPhone 16 Deliver? Our Hot Take

See how consumers reacted to AAPL’s new lineup – and what our predictive insights mean for the stock’s trajectory.. [Derby City Daily logo]( [Derby City Daily logo]( September 13, 2024 [Apple Keynote Report 2024: Will the iPhone 16 Deliver? Our Hot Take]( By Andy Swan Apple (AAPL) took center stage this week, unveiling its newest iPhone lineup (among other devices) during its annual iPhone Keynote event on Monday. [chart]( We love this time of year at LikeFolio. The world gets a sneak peek at Apple’s hot new products, consumers tip their hands to what they love (or don’t) on social media, and our Data Engine goes into overdrive analyzing the flood of reactions. Then, we boil all those insights down into the Special Report you have in front of you today. [The data set we get]( from Apple’s September Keynote can be extremely predictive – helping our followers avoid a 30%-plus drop in AAPL stock after its lackluster iPhone X release a few years ago, in just one standout example. We won’t get into the now clinical-grade, hearing aid-approved Airpods or Apple Watch updates. [This year is all about the AI-powered iPhone.]( Consumers have been waiting seemingly for ages for a massive upgrade in Apple’s most popular device. Spoiler alert: They didn’t get what they were looking for. But they’ll probably upgrade anyway. SPONSORED AD [Meet the Companies That Could Be Behind Apple’s “AiPhone”]( “According to my research, [these three tiny companies]( may be working behind the scenes to produce Apple’s first ever AI-powered iPhone...” — Luke Lango, Silicon Valley Insider [Get all the info here]( While the market reaction was slightly negative (AAPL shares dipped about a percent), our take looks a bit rosier. Here’s our rundown of how consumers responded to the new iPhone lineup on X (formerly Twitter) and how we see things playing out from here... [chart]( iPhone Sentiment Analysis The Big Picture In 2024, there was a slight downturn in both positive sentiment and Purchase Intent mentions for the iPhone: - Positive sentiment dropped from 89% positive in 2023 to 84% positive in 2024. - Purchase Intent declined from 17% to 9% of all mentions referencing the “new iPhone.” [chart] Insider Tip: Measuring Purchase Intent In the LikeFolio Universe, Purchase Intent mentions are social posts that indicate the author has either just spent money on the product or is planning to spend money on the product in the near future. This proprietary metric has been proven through rigorous academic research by Georgetown University as “not only predictive of a company’s upcoming sales, but also [to] account for the unexpected component of sales growth that analysts miss.” Some users expressed frustration over a lack of major upgrades, with one noting, "It feels like the same phone, just with a new camera." The absence of groundbreaking hardware features left some consumers underwhelmed. [chart]( However, Apple continues to excel in key areas that drive consumer interest... 3 Features Winning Over Consumers No. 1: The Camera The camera emerged as an even stronger selling point in 2024, making up 36% of positive mentions, up from 28% in 2023. [chart]( [chart]( Users repeatedly praised the improved camera quality, with one stating, "The camera quality is absolutely next-level." Apple's focus on enhancing its camera technology remains a strong differentiator, continuing to keep the iPhone competitive. No. 2: The Price Additionally, price satisfaction saw an improvement in 2024, with 25% of positive mentions focusing on pricing, compared to 21% in 2023. [chart]( Apple maintained pricing from 2023 into 2024, while offering compelling trade-in deals. This was noted by users like one who said, "The trade-in deal made upgrading a no-brainer." By not raising prices and adding strong trade-in offers, Apple has made the iPhone more accessible and reinforced a sense of value in the product. No. 3: The Design Design also saw an improvement in sentiment, rising from 13% of positive mentions in 2023 to 18% in 2024. [chart]( Comments such as "The design is sleek and premium" demonstrate that the iPhone's aesthetic appeal remains a critical factor in purchase decisions, with consumers continuing to value the iPhone's modern and premium look and feel. [chart]( A New Era of Software-Driven Value: Apple Intelligence and Visual Intelligence Beyond traditional hardware features, the 2024 iPhone marks an important shift toward software-based enhancements, driven by the growing prominence of [Apple Intelligence](. One X user noted, "This is the first iPhone that's more about future AI upgrades than hardware." Apple is investing heavily in its AI capabilities, including features like machine learning for enhanced photography, AI-driven personal assistant improvements, and real-time suggestions. For example, Siri is receiving a significant upgrade that will make it more conversational and intuitive, akin to generative AI models like ChatGPT (finally). Visual intelligence, powering a new slew of discovery tools, has also been well-received. Users expressed enthusiasm for how AI enhances the iPhone's photography capabilities, with one user praising how "AI helps make photos look professional without any extra effort." [chart]( These new software features may induce enough FOMO (aka “fear of missing out”) to push many users with older models over the edge by limiting these advanced Apple Intelligence features to the iPhone 15 Pro and newer models. (Remember, [Apple is the king of FOMO]( This strategy is particularly impactful when considering that as of December 2023, over 70% of iPhone users were still using the iPhone 13 or older models, according to a report by Bank of America. As AAPL refines its software-driven value proposition, it may be creating an underappreciated avenue for future revenue. [chart]( The Bottom Line Just as [Tesla (TSLA) disrupted traditional auto markets]( by focusing on software, [Apple is setting the stage]( for a similar transformation — one that could fundamentally reshape how it engages with consumers and generates revenue. The real question remains... Are we underestimating the long-term impact of Apple's AI-driven strategy and its ability to consistently drive user upgrades and service-based revenue? We think this is likely the case. We’re watching for a surprise to the upside over the next year as Apple unveils new (and addictive) AI features. Until next time, [Andy Swan's signature] [Andy Swan's signature] Andy Swan Founder, LikeFolio [Bonus Content] How to Position Yourself for Apple’s AI Pivot With Apple finally making its pivot into the AI industry, [this Silicon Valley insider]( put out a free playbook that everyday Americans can use to position themselves. [Check it out here]( . Discover More Free Insights from Derby City Daily Here's what you may have missed from Derby City Daily this week... ✓ [A DirecTV Blackout Triggers a Disney Profit Opportunity]( ✓ [Robotaxi Mania: The Countdown to Tesla’s Next Breakout Moment]( ✓ [Embrace the September Slump with This AI-Powered Pick]( © 2024 TradeSmith, LLC t/a Derby City Insights. All Rights Reserved. 1125 N. Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21201 To unsubscribe or change your email preferences, please [click here](. [Terms of Use]( | [Privacy Policy](