2022 Wrap Up & Top ETF of the Week

 Hey Trader, Well team, that is a wrap on 2022. In January the SPY opened at $476.30, one day away from the all time high in the market. We will close the year out just about 20% down from opening day. The question on everyones mind is, when will this bear market end and how low can it go? [SPY Daily Chart]( [QQQ Daily Chart]( Since no one knows when this bear market will end, all we can do is look back at history to perhaps give us some insight. We know that we are 360 days from the all time high right now but only 200 days since we "officially" entered a bear market on June 13th. Now if you ask me, the bear market started much earlier than that and there we many ways to know, but that is a topic for another time. The average length of a bear market is around 388 days so this would mean we may have around 130 to 180 days left in this current bear market. Lets check out some chart overlays and see what we can learn. The way we are going to overlay all of these bars patterns is by the percent decline and by the time it took for the decline. 2008 - The 2008 crash took 511 days from top to bottom and fell 57%. The chart so far has tons of similarities to the 2022 price action.  If our present price action continues to track the 2008 price action we will likely see some strong selling to new lows sometime in January or early February followed by some downward to sideways chop and then a final capitulation sometime between May and July. This doesn't have to happen but it's good to study it and know that it is a possibility. [SPX 2008 Overlay]( 2000 - Next let's look at the dot-com bubble in 2000. This is the longest bear market in US history and had many stocks falling upwards of 90%. The top to bottom crash took 680 days and fell 48%. Just like the 2008 chart, we are tracking price action of 2000 very well so far. If this scenario were to play out we will also see a large drop to new lows in January or early February followed by a several month rally right back into our bear market trend line. The market would finally bottom sometime at the end of 2023 and then continue to accumulate for another 6 months at those levels. This scenario while painful for the bulls in the short term would give months and months of buying opportunities to create generational wealth. [SPX 2000 Overlay]( 1968 - The 1968 bear market played out over 540 days from top to bottom and fell 37%. This is just 2 percent over the average bear market decline of 35%. One thing I really like about this chart is how well it is mirroring the last 2 months price action. It put in a beautiful double top right at it's upper trend line, broke critical support, retested the neckline of the double top and then proceeded to fall to the lower trend line. I think this is a very plausible bear market scenario for 2023 and would put the bottom of the market somewhere in mid 2023, very similar to the 2008 overlay. [SPX 1968 Overlay]( 1973 - The next chart is the 1973 bear market which has some fundamental similarities to our current market, mainly high inflation and rising interest rates.  It fell 50% over a period of 623 days. What strikes me the most, is that in all the charts so far, we basically end the first year down around 20% and then during the next year we get that strong push down. In this chart that strong push down doesn't come until May of 2023 and then bottoms in September. This would line up will with the old adage, sell in May and go away. [SPX 1973 Overlay]( 1980 - The final chart for today is the 1980 bear market which fell, a tame by comparison, 28% over 622 days. This bear market corrected more in time than in price. It bored all the traders and investors out of the market before taking off like a rocket for the next 5 years. This is certainly a possibility for our current bear market. It would have us making two more slight new lows over the next year before bottoming in the fall sometime. Whatever it is that 2023 brings, there will be plenty of opportunities. Opportunities for growth, opportunities for gains, opportunities for greatness and opportunities for gratitude. Find those 4 G's next year wherever you can. I have not forgotten about the ETF of the week. This weeks ETF is Teucrium Soybean Fund ETV (SOYB). You can learn more about it [here](. SOYB just recently broke out of a marvelous ascending triangle pattern. In an ascending triangle pattern, the price action is forming a series of higher lows (pink) as it bounces off of a horizontal resistance (blue). This pattern reflects a build-up of buying pressure, and when the price action eventually breaks out of the triangle pattern, it often leads to a sharp increase in price. Let's try to snag this one on a pullback of that old resistance new support level. [SOYB Daily Chart]( Happy New Year! Sincerely, The Traders Plan Team support@thetradersplan.com  Disclosure:  You are responsible for your own trading decisions. ALWAYS, do your own research before investing in any of the above securities. This is not a solicitation to buy/sell ETFs or securities. NEVER invest money in ETFs or stocks that you can't afford to lose. You can lose all of your capital by trading any securities mentioned. These ETFs/securities are very volatile and gain and lose value quickly. We reserve the right to freely trade in any mentioned ETFs or securities. We are not compensated by any mentioned companies. We recommend ETFs and securities based on our opinion of intrinsic/possible future value only. We are not registered investment advisors, so always do you own research before buying any recommended securities. Sent to: {EMAIL} The Trader's Plan Publishing, Main Street, Russellville, Arkansas 72801, United States Don't want future emails? [Unsubscribe](