‘More Committed Now Than I Ever Was’

Why are U.S. conservatives standing so resolutely behind Donald Trump? Seth Masket on a transformation of the Republican Party 70 years in the making. Recently at The Signal: Steven Levitsky on [what 2024’s record numbers of voters and elections mean for democracy in the world](. Today: Why are U.S. conservatives standing so resolutely behind Donald Trump? Seth Masket on a transformation of the Republican Party 70 years in the making. Also: Victor Shih on cracks in the Chinese economy. Here Comes Your Man Natilyn After commanding victories in the Iowa and New Hampshire primary elections, Donald Trump looks almost certain to be the U.S. Republican Party’s nominee for president. Apart from Nikki Haley, Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations—who’d staked her candidacy on the prospect of beating him in New Hampshire—all other Republican candidates have now dropped out of the race. Trump’s dominance is in spite of a remarkable 91 felony indictments in four criminal cases, including charges that he conspired to overturn the election he lost in 2020. It’s also in spite of a poor record in elections against Democrats overall: In the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, Democrats gained 41 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, their largest increase in a midterm since 1974. In 2020, the party won not only the presidency but the House and the Senate. It was the first time since the Great Depression that any American president’s party had lost control of all three after one term. In the 2022 midterms, with Trump still effectively the Republicans’ leader—and political conditions favoring them—they captured only a slim majority in the House, while Democrats held the Senate. And yet this year, about two-thirds of Republican voters say they want him as their nominee. Why is their support so unshaken? Seth Masket is a professor of political science at the University of Denver and the author of three books on American political parties. Since February 2023, Masket has been regularly surveying Republican Party chairs across the U.S. at the county level about where they stand on the party’s presidential candidates. He sees the phenomenon of Trump’s support as representing a transformation in the make-up of the Republican political base. Since the 1950s, the party has had a significant populist faction that’s distrustful, even resentful, of their country’s political and cultural elites. In recent years, that faction has grown. And today, thanks to Trump—who taps directly and deliberately into its concerns and priorities—it’s dominant. He’s the first leader not just to campaign in Republican populists’ terms but actually to govern in those terms once in office. As his control of the Republican Party consolidates again, Trump’s seeming authenticity in his populist sentiments and fidelity to populist voters have made him their leader in a way no candidate ever has been. It’s a connection so strong that Trump’s criminal indictments and unpopularity outside the party look to Republican populists only like more coordinated, corrupt efforts to keep them down. Michael Bluhm: How would you put Trump’s current popularity among Republican voters in historical context? Advertisement Seth Masket: It’s very strong. It’s not as high as if he were an incumbent president; in that case, you’d expect his support for the nomination to be nearly universal within his party—as it is for Joe Biden among Democrats. But Trump’s support is markedly higher than if he were just another candidate for the nomination. With the local Republican leaders I’ve talked to across the U.S., this support has been growing steadily over the past year. Before the primaries began, around a third of county chairs didn’t name a preferred candidate. They wanted to leave their options open. But with those who would name one, Donald Trump has had a strong majority position. And as we see in the primary results so far, with Republican voters, he’s well ahead of everyone else. But what’s interesting here is that the race looked more competitive at different times over the last year. I started this survey in February 2023. Then, more people said they were backing Ron DeSantis than Trump, if only narrowly. But in April, just after he was first indicted, Trump moved into the lead—and that lead’s only grown since. Laura Fuhrman More from Seth Masket at The Signal: “I did my latest survey among Republicans and Democrats, and I asked those who expressed a preference for a candidate whether there was anything that might change their minds. … And it’s striking that while 10 to 20 percent of Democrats would be willing to abandon Biden in some of those circumstances, almost no Trump supporters would be willing to at all. They’re saying, no matter what happens, Trump is their guy.” “The response from that first wave of criminal indictments was, It’s time to defend him. Of course, Trump put that narrative out there himself—but a lot of people throughout the party were doing it too. They said, This is an illegitimate prosecution. They’re going after our guy. We have to stand up for him. And that drowned out every other story.” “If any other presidential candidate you could imagine had 91 criminal indictments, that person would no longer be a candidate. I confess it remains strange to me that the indictments have fueled greater support for him. The only explanation that makes sense, from my perspective, is that they fit the same narrative he’s been pushing throughout his time as a politician: He’s running against a corrupt state and a corrupt set of elites, so when he succeeds, it’s because he’s strong—but when he fails, it’s because of a corrupt system trying to suppress him.” [Members can read the full interview here]( FROM THE FILES Under Pressure Since January 1, China’s main stock markets have been in sharp decline. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, where most major Chinese corporations are listed, has declined by more than 12 percent. As a result, state-owned banks have moved to stabilize China’s currency, as investor sentiment turns against the People’s Republic. Last August, Victor Shih—the Ho Miu Lam Chair in China and Pacific Relations at the University of California, San Diego—[explored the underlying, long-term trends behind the Chinese economy’s increasing fragility](. To access our full articles, full archive, and to support The Signal as we build a new approach to current affairs, become a member. [Join The Signal]( Coming soon: Daron Acemoglu on how new U.S. and EU regulations are shaping the future of AI … Enjoy The Signal? Send this newsletter to someone who’s as curious about the world as you are. The Signal | 1717 N St. NW, Washington, DC 20011 [Unsubscribe {EMAIL}]( [Constant Contact Data Notice]( Sent by newsletters@thesgnl.email