Is the U.S. Really on the Verge of ‘Unprecedented Extremism’?

Anton Jäger on the long history behind Donald Trump’s “men on horseback” style in American politics Anton Jäger on the long history behind Donald Trump’s “men on horseback” style in American politics Recently at The Signal: John R. Deni on [how well Europe can defend itself](. … Today: Anton Jäger on whether the U.S. is really on the verge of “unprecedented extremism.” … Also: Michael Bluhm on the collapse of Germany’s government. [The Signal]( is your guide to democratic life, the trend lines shaping it, and the challenges confronting it. Join as a [member](—or become a [founding member](. Business as usual Getty Images Donald Trump is once again the president-elect of the United States, having won not only the electoral college—America’s state-based system for choosing the president—but the popular vote, resoundingly. When Trump first won office in 2016, an idea flooded into American culture—not only on the left but in establishment or mainstream media and even on the center-right—that, after eight years with the country’s enormously popular first black president, the U.S. had collapsed into a historical moment comparable to the late Weimar Republic in the 1930s, when the Nazis were at the brink of power in Germany. To millions of Americans, and others around the world, it rapidly became obvious from Donald Trump’s rhetoric that he’s a fascist. The idea surged in early 2021, after Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol in an addled and violent attempt to halt the certification of the 2020 election results—but waned as Trump receded from power, however unwillingly. Still, it remained a central theme in the way Trump’s opponents understood him and his followers. In 2022, President Joe Biden called Trump’s Make America Great Again movement “[semi-fascism](.” This year, in a moment of confidence, as the Democratic Party moved toward formally selecting Vice President Kamala Harris as its nominee, its rhetoric shifted. Democrats started referring to Trump’s Republican Party—first its vice-presidential nominee J.D. Vance, then Trump, too, and the whole thing—as “weird.” But as election day neared, the somber theme of anti-fascism returned. Just two weeks ago, Harris reminded American voters that Trump is still a [fascist](. And now the theme is surging again. On the [left](: “The Democratic Party has had nearly a decade to convince voters of something that should be obvious. Donald Trump is dangerous, radical, authoritarian—even fascistic.” In the [established mainstream](: “An aspiring fascist is the president-elect, again, of the United States. This is our political reality.” Even on the [center-right](, just days before the election: “Donald Trump is running the most openly fascist campaign ever undertaken by a major-party nominee for president of the United States.” Is this all true? Anton Jäger is a lecturer in the history of political thought and political theory at University College, Oxford, and the co-author of [The Populist Moment](. Jäger says … no. Trump might say things authoritarians say, some that even sound like what a fascist might say. He might also do things that are dangerous and troubling, as he did on January 6, 2021. But none of it is fascism. Which, Jäger says, isn’t just a kind of academic technicality. It obscures what Trumpism is, where its appeal comes from, and, not least, what its actual risks to American democracy could even possibly be … [Read on]( Advertisement From Anton Jäger at The Signal: - “Casting American politics as an existential battle between democracy and anti-democracy can feel like electoral blackmail to a lot of younger voters—particularly those looking to the Democrats for some kind of material benefit. These people, are on the whole, much less likely to favor politics they see as basically pro-establishment. To them, the Biden campaign’s—and eventually the Harris campaign’s—defense of democracy seemed like a defense of a status quo they’d never really appreciated.” - “Trump became a commercial asset for certain establishment and liberal media organizations after 2016. Those outlets have a very ambiguous relationship with Trump: They’ve considered him politically dangerous, but they’ve also considered him an extremely important source of revenue. We shouldn’t underestimate just how vital he’s been to the business of a lot of established liberal media.” - “A lot of what Trump has said he wants to do—when it comes to tariffs or reordering global economic flows to disentangle them from Chinese supply chains—are things Biden has already been doing. Which means there’s going to be almost a perfect continuity through what Trump did in his first term, what Biden has been doing in his, and what Trump says he is going to do in his second. One description I heard of the plan Vance and Trump have for their administration, at least on economic policy, is Biden minus woke.” [Read on]( Advertisement Why is democracy struggling so much around the world? Read The Signal’s first print extra, The Long Game. [Limited copies available now.]( [Learn more]( NOTES A fall in Berlin Jean-Pierre Momot On November 6, Germany’s government collapsed. Olaf Scholz, the Social Democratic chancellor, threw the Free Democratic Party out of his governing coalition, leaving his party with only the Greens in a minority government. Scholz also called for a confidence vote in the Bundestag in January, which his unpopular cabinet is certain to lose. And that will mean early elections within 60 days. Since the end of World War II, it’s been very unusual for a German government to fail serving out a full term. What happened? In October, Matthias Matthijs pointed out that the [Greens and Free Democrats had long been a bad fit]( as coalition partners: They hold opposing positions on many of the country’s most important policies. Still, Matthijs says, mismatched coalitions like this are becoming increasingly common across Europe as a result of political fragmentation—specifically, of the formerly dominant parties of center-right and center-left losing voter support to the far right and far left, as well as to new parties. Which is making it harder to form governing majorities—and also harder to govern. —Michael Bluhm [Read on]( [Join The Signal]( to unlock full conversations with hundreds of contributors and support our new, independent approach to current-affairs coverage. [Become a member]( Coming soon: Omair Ahmad on why India is assassinating Sikh activists around the world … This email address is unmonitored. Please send questions or comments [here](mailto:concierge@thesgnl.com). Interested in getting your teams or students access to The Signal? Please [be in touch](. Find us on [Linkedin]( and [X](. Add us to your [address book](mailto:updates@thesgnl.com). Unsubscribe [here](. © 2024 [unsubscribe](