Mortgage rates ease, but can it revive a supply-starved market?

The best national real estate stories from The Real Deal Aug 17, 2024 [View in Browser]( | [$1 for 1 Month]( [The Real Deal Logo](   [The National Logo](   In this week’s newsletter, we examine how falling mortgage rates, imminent Federal Reserve action and abysmal inventory affect the housing market. Plus, the embattled Alexander brothers are back at the helm of Official, a Douglas Elliman investor is rallying fellow shareholders against chairman Howard Lorber and Brandon Miller’s widow is listing her Hamptons estate. These stories and more below.   Mortgage rates ease, but can it revive a supply-starved market? It’s been a tough two years for the housing market, but the winds of change might finally be picking up. After persistently stagnant sales, low inventory and high mortgage rates, a drop in borrowing costs has residential real estate on the edge of its seat. Mortgage rates hit their [lowest level]( since May 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate dipping to 6.47 percent. While that’s a far cry from the sub-3 percent era, the weekly decline was the sharpest in nine months. The housing market certainly needed a shot in the arm. Things should keep improving in September, when the Federal Reserve’s [long-awaited interest rate cuts]( are expected to begin. While mortgage rates are influenced more by 10-year Treasury notes, the Fed’s pending cut in the federal funds rate will have ripple effects. Economists are split on what the impact will be, with some warning a recession could still happen and others waving off such concerns. What we do know is that if the Fed pulls the trigger on a rate cut in September, it could spark renewed confidence in the housing market, especially for those waiting for a sign to make their move. Housing affordability hit a low last fall, and while lower rates are a step in the right direction, the reality is that prices will stay high if [inventory stays tight](. U.S. home prices have [increased by almost 6 percent]( in the past year, according to NAR data. In [Silicon Valley](, a typical home costs more than $2 million, topping NAR’s list of most expensive markets. Chicago [home prices soared]( to a record high back in May and have grown steadily even as interest rates reached a 23-year high. Residential sales picked up in [South Florida](, thanks in part to the region’s luxury sector. The [ultra-luxury market]( managed to stay strong as home sales over $10 million grew 3.9 percent in the first six months of 2024 compared with last year. But Los Angeles experienced a 15.6 percent drop in luxury sales, and Manhattan’s fell 2.4 percent. If homeowners weren’t selling, at least they were refinancing, with [applications jumping 35%]( last week. Buyers still held out for more inventory and rate decreases, and until they happen, the market will remain largely frozen. But if they do, we could be looking at a much more active end to the year.   Together with CENSAI Any Market, All the Data [CENSAI]( Real estate opportunities are easy to miss if you don't have the best data in hand. CENSAI offers the industry's [most precise location insights]( for creating smarter investment strategies. With individual-level data on more than 270 million U.S. adults, CENSAI delivers [detailed market trends]( from the West Coast to the Eastern Seaboard. Right down to the zip code. Find look-alikes based on your ideal market. Observe population trends up to four quarters into the future. Search our database of over 145,000 multifamily properties featuring valuable building data. With access to CENSAI, you can do all this and more. CENSAI data is refreshed quarterly so you benefit from the latest insights. [Discover our products today.](   [I'm an image]( Alexander brothers left as sole owners of Official after failed exit negotiations The co-founders of Official are pulling out of the brokerage, leaving brokers Oren and Tal Alexander as the sole owners of the firm that was thrown into disarray after rape claims surfaced against them. [I'm an image]( Elliman shareholder’s demands against Howard Lorber gain support Two independent proxy firms recommended demands by a Douglas Elliman investor seeking votes against chairman Howard Lorber. [I'm an image]( Brandon Miller’s widow lists debt-ridden Hamptons estate for $15M Brandon Miller’s widow Is looking to sell the heavily-mortgaged Hamptons property that provided a dreamy backdrop for her Instagram feed but was also the scene of her husband’s apparent suicide.   Advertisement   [I'm an image]( Fortress’ $534M foreclosure against Charles Cohen is back on Fortress Investment Group, the lender pursuing the $534 million UCC foreclosure, won the right to proceed with an auction of Cohen Brothers Realty’s equity interest in a grab bag of assets. [I'm an image]( Ben Ashkenazy lets go of Mag Mile retail asset after $61M default New York real estate investor Ben Ashkenazy is walking away from a Magnificent Mile retail property that has struggled to rebound since the pandemic. [I'm an image]( Sergio Pino’s widow, brother at odds over Century Homebuilders Sergio Pino’s death prompted a litigious fight over Century Homebuilders Group. [I'm an image]( Beacon’s $370M loan for AMA Plaza moved to special servicing The Boston-based landlord indicated it wouldn’t make August debt service and property tax payments for 330 North Wabash. [I'm an image]( How brokerages are preparing agents for NAR’s D-Day Firms are heavy on talking points and light on specifics as agents brace for new rules.     [The Real Deal Logo]( [Facebook]( [Twitter]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( [YouTube]( [Manage Newsletters]( | [Unsubscribe]( | [Privacy Policy]( | [Subscribe]( | [Advertise]( The Real Deal 450 West 31st Street, New York, NY 10001 ©2024 TheRealDeal. All rights reserved. [View Online](