Recession Odds Are Falling Fast

Plus: A drop in ‘excess deaths’ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ [The Fisc](   By Yuval Rosenberg and Michael Rainey Happy Monday! We’ve got some good news for you today: The odds of an imminent recession appear to be dropping in economists’ view and the number of Americans dying each day has almost fallen back to pre-pandemic normal. Enjoy the positive vibes while they last! (iStockphoto) Economists Dial Back Their Recession Expectations Economists at Goldman Sachs on Monday cut their forecast probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months from 25% to 20%. "The main reason for our cut is that the recent data have reinforced our confidence that bringing inflation down to an acceptable level will not require a recession," Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients. Hatzius acknowledged that Goldman’s outlook is far rosier than that of economists in the latest Wall Street Journal [survey]( published on Saturday, which placed a 54% probability of a recession over the coming year. That number remains historically high but also represents a significant drop in recession expectations, from 61% in the prior two Journal surveys. It was the largest month-over-month percentage-point drop recorded in the Journal survey since August 2020. Number of the Day: $14 Billion Senate appropriators have reached a deal to add nearly $14 billion in additional money for the next fiscal year to the spending bills they are set to take up this month. "The extra money would be separate from a supplemental aid package for Ukraine and other purposes that senators on both sides of the aisle say they’d like to pursue this year, though the money could end up being used for similar things," CQ Roll Call’s Paul M. Krawzak and David Lerman [report]( adding that the emergency funding would also be on top of another $23 billion previously negotiated in a side deal to the recent agreement to raise the debt limit. Senate appropriators are otherwise sticking to the spending levels set by that debt-limit deal. "[W]e are using the full resources provided by the debt ceiling deal, and — just as we do every year — we have agreed to use additional emergency appropriations for [fiscal 2024], as appropriate, to address in a bipartisan fashion some of the pressing challenges our nation faces," Senate Appropriations leaders Patty Murray and Susan Collins said in a joint statement cited by Roll Call. House appropriators have set spending levels below the caps specified in the debt-limit deal after an uprising by conservatives in the chamber. That will likely set up another clash later this year as the House and Senate try to reconcile their spending packages. Column of the Day: NDAA, Not Done At All After House Republicans last week narrowly passed a defense policy bill for fiscal year 2024 festooned with conservative amendments targeting abortion, diversity initiatives and transgender care, New York Times editorial board member Michelle Cottle writes that the latest clash only sets the stage for additional battles. "Rest assured, the spectacle is far from over," Cottle writes about the National Defense Authorization Act. "The odds of the bill’s extreme measures passing muster with the Democratic Senate and White House are worse than Mike Pence’s odds of winning the presidency next year. So, less than zero. But House conservatives aren’t aiming to make serious policy gains here — at least, not the ones who understand how a divided government works. They are looking to make trouble, to prove they are loud, uncompromising fighters for the conservative cause." Cottle adds that those right-wingers may be just gearing up for a tougher fight ahead: "However much blood and tears get shed in passing the N.D.A.A., they are nothing compared to the carnage anticipated in the coming cage match over funding the government. Already, the hard-liners have made clear that they are going to cause as much trouble as possible in pursuit of their outside-the-mainstream aims." [Read the full column at The New York Times.]( A Big Drop in ‘Excess Deaths’ Good news for American health: Covid-19 has become an ordinary illness. The New York Times’s David Leonhardt highlights data showing that the number of "excess deaths" in the U.S. has fallen close to zero, indicating that Covid-19 is no longer affecting the population the way it did during the pandemic. "Excess deaths … has been an important measure of Covid’s true toll because it does not depend on the murky attribution of deaths to a specific cause," Leonhardt [writes](. "Even if Covid is being underdiagnosed, the excess-deaths statistic can capture its effects. The statistic also captures Covid’s indirect effects, like the surge of vehicle crashes, gun deaths and deaths from missed medical treatments during the pandemic." At some points during the pandemic, excess deaths were running more than 30% higher than usual and were still 10% higher at the end of 2022. Now the data show that excess deaths are elevated by less than 1% — and at least one source, the Human Mortality Database, shows that excess deaths have been below average since earlier this year. Leonhardt cites three main reasons for the change: high vaccination rates, post-infection population immunity, and the availability of treatments such as Paxlovid that significantly reduce symptoms and severity for those who get the disease. "Nearly every death is preventable," Dr. Ashish Jha, the former White House COVID-19 response coordinator, told Leonhardt. "We are at a point where almost everybody who’s up to date on their vaccines and gets treated if they have Covid, they rarely end up in the hospital, they almost never die." Most Americans Support More Generous Food Aid: Poll About 85% of Americans believe the federal government should do more to help those who are struggling to pay for food, according to a new poll from the Save the Children Action Network, a non-partisan advocacy group. As The Hill’s Saul Elbein [reports]( the poll shows high levels of support for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP, which lawmakers are debating as they prepare to write the next farm bill. The current farm bill — which was estimated to cost $428 billion over five years when it was signed into law in late 2018 — expires later this year, and SNAP accounts for more than three-quarters of the spending in the legislation. Budget hawks have tried to cut SNAP funding in the past and likely will do so again this year, but Lori Weigel, who leads the Republican polling firm New Bridge Strategy, which helped carry out the poll, said that the "vast majority of people — across party lines for basically every policy that we tested [to increase the reach of SNAP] — was saying, ‘Yeah, that sounds like common sense and something we should be doing.’" "It’s important to note: If anything, most people would opt to increase benefits," Weigel added. "Only 4 percent wanted to decrease them." Most respondents greatly overestimated the generosity of the SNAP benefits, pegging them at $50 a day on average. The actual number is about $6 per person per day — a level some experts say does not cover the cost of home-cooked meals in most parts of the country. Why is support for the food aid program so high? Weigel says a significant number of respondents had friends and family who had turned to the program for help at a time of soaring food prices. Support is higher among Democrats than among Republicans, but majorities in both groups said they support the program — and said they would not look favorably on lawmakers who try to cut benefits. In another worrisome detail for fiscal hawks, Weigel said most respondents are far more concerned about how they and their friends and family are doing than what’s going on with the federal budget. "[W]e test budgets [with focus groups] and we’re testing, you know, millions, billions, trillions of dollars," she said. "And that means so little to people." Fiscal News Roundup - [House, Senate Take Starkly Different Approaches With Funding Bills]( – The Hill - [GOP-Backed Defense Bill Won’t Pass, National Security Adviser Says]( – Politico - [McCaul ‘Very Confident’ NDAA Will Be a Bipartisan Bill]( – The Hill - [Bipartisan Efforts on Child Tax Credit Afoot in House]( – Roll Call - [A Group of GOP Centrists Threatens Hardline Tactics on Tax Bill]( – Politico - [Majority of Voters Want Snap Increased, Not Cut: Poll]( – The Hill - [Yellen Says China Slowdown Risks Spillovers but No US Recession]( – Bloomberg - [Americans Are Still Better Off, With More in the Bank Than Before the Pandemic]( – Washington Post - [Pay Raises Are Finally Beating Inflation After Two Years of Falling Behind]( – Wall Street Journal - [A Buoyant Global Economy Is Starting to Sag]( – Wall Street Journal - [FEMA Has So Far Paid Out Less Than 1% of What Congress Allocated for Victims of New Mexico Wildfire]( – ProPublica - [High-Earning Retirement Savers Are Losing Some of Their 401(k) Tax Break]( – Wall Street Journal - [How One U.S. Drugmaker Contributed to the Escalating Drug Shortage Crisis]( – NBC News - [Second Alzheimer’s Drug to Slow Disease’s Progression May Be Approved in the US This Year]( – CNN - [Lockheed Risks $400 Million Payment Delay Until It Shows New F-35 Software Works]( – Bloomberg Views and Analysis - [It’s Getting Really Awkward for Speaker Kevin McCarthy]( – Michelle Cottle, New York Times - [‘Common Sense’ in Politics? No Thanks]( – Paul Waldman, Washington Post - [GOP Senators Rattled by Radical Conservative Populism]( – Alexander Bolton, The Hill - [President Biden’s Most Powerful Student Loan Tool]( – Ryan Cooper, American Prospect - [The War Against Inflation Is a Long Way Away From Being Won]( – Jeff Cox, CNBC - [Life Is About to Get Much More Expensive for Millions of Families]( – Caitlin Owens, Axios - [We Fixed I-95 in 12 Days. Here Are Our Lessons for U.S. Infrastructure]( – Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Washington Post - [How Harlan Crow Slashed his Tax Bill by Taking Clarence Thomas on Superyacht Cruises]( – Paul Kiel, ProPublica Copyright © 2023 The Fiscal Times, All rights reserved. You are receiving this newsletter because you subscribed at our website or through Facebook. The Fiscal Times, 399 Park Avenue, 14th Floor, New York, NY 10022, United States Want to change how you receive these emails? [Update your preferences]( or [unsubscribe](