2019, here we come!
By Yuval Rosenberg
How Long Will the Shutdown Mess Last?
There was no deal. There is no deal. And there isnât likely to be a deal anytime soon.
Large portions of the federal government shut down early Saturday and are likely to remain closed until at least Thursday after President Trump earlier scuttled a bipartisan short-term spending bill and insisted on additional money to build a wall â or fence-like structure of some sort â along the border with Mexico.
A late scramble by White House and congressional negotiators Friday evening failed to break the impasse over the presidentâs demand for $5 billion in wall funding, and there were no signs of significant progress on Saturday, even as Vice President Mike Pence returned to the Capitol for talks with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY). As a result, nine of 15 Cabinet-level departments and dozens of agencies will be closed well into next week, and possibly much longer, after their funding expired Friday at midnight. It is the third government shutdown of the year.
On Saturday, Trump delayed plans for a 16-day trip to his Mar-A-Lago resort in Florida. He had lunch at the White House with a group of conservative lawmakers, many of whom reportedly pushed Trump to continue fighting for border wall funding.
The House and Senate opened at noon Saturday, but both chambers quickly adjourned for the weekend without any votes. Many lawmakers left the capital Friday night to return home, having been assured that they would get 24 hours notice before any vote to reopen to government (though if a deal does come together, it could be put up for a voice vote that wouldnât require senators to return to Capitol Hill). Senate Chaplain Barry Black, in his Saturday morning prayer, reportedly asked that the Senate be saved "from the pitfalls of partisan brinkmanship." That prayer is unlikely to be answered for days, or even weeks.
One senior Republican aide [told Politico]( that there may be no significant movement until after Christmas. Another told the site that if negotiators donât reach a quick compromise over the weekend, the shutdown is likely to drag on until January, when Democrats take control of the House. Trump tweeted Saturday: âWe are negotiating with the Democrats on desperately needed Border Security ... but it could be a long stay.â
Trump also continues to make it more difficult to reach a deal by refusing to specify or signal [what kind of compromise he would accept](. Lawmakers are reticent to support any compromise without assurances that the president will sign off on it.
As the standoff continues, most Americans likely wonât notice any immediate effects of the shutdown, especially given the upcoming holiday, but some 800,000 of the 2.1 million federal workers nationwide [will be affected]( with 420,000 âessentialâ employees, including Border Patrol agents and Transportation Security Administration officials, required to work without pay and another 380,000 forced to take unpaid leave until a deal is reached. The next paycheck for furloughed federal workers isnât due to be processed until January 11, a Republican source [told Politico]( â timing that lessens the urgency of reaching a deal. A number of other federal agencies, including the military, wonât be affected by the shutdown because Congress already passed bills funding them through September.
For more on the effects of the partial shutdown, [see our piece from Friday](.
Hereâs what you need to know as the shutdown fight continues:
Trump probably canât win this fight: The presidentâs best hope may be to ratchet up pressure on Democrats and try to pin the blame for the shutdown on them, as he has over the past couple of days. The House vote Thursday night passing $5.7 billion in wall funding helps a bit in that regard by positioning Senate Democrats as blocking a measure that would have kept the government open. But Trumpâs comment last week that heâd be âproudâ to shut down the government over border security makes it nearly impossible to lay blame elsewhere.
Democrats have little incentive to give in: Democrats will take control of the House when a new Congress convenes on January 3, and they plan to pass legislation to re-open the government and provide $1.3 billion in border security funding as one of their first acts, giving them additional leverage in the current battle. âPresident Trump, you will not get your wall,â Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Friday. âYouâre not getting your wall today, next week or on Jan. 3 when Democrats take control of the House.â
And Trump is likely to get the public blame: A recent Quinnipiac University [poll]( showed that 51 percent of voters would primarily blame Trump and congressional Republicans in Congress for the shutdown, while 37 percent would blame congressional Democrats more. And Quinnipiac polling also [finds]( that most Americans still oppose Trumpâs wall.
But winning may not be the point: Even if the shutdown wonât result in money for a wall, Trumpâs willingness to push for one was about pleasing his conservative base, especially after he faced withering criticism from Fox News and right-wing firebrands Ann Coulter and Rush Limbaugh when, earlier in the week, he signaled heâd sign off on a bipartisan stopgap measure to keep the government open without funding a wall. âTrumpâs advisers acknowledged that the funding may not be secured in the end but boasted that the spectacle would be remembered favorably by his base voters as proof of his mettle,â The Washington Post reported Thursday. And the Postâs editorial board [added]( âAny doubt that it is politics â not principle â driving Mr. Trump was erased when he flip-flopped this week on the stopgap spending bill.â Thatâs bound to affect his standing with moderate voters, but this standoff may not matter much to them by 2020. Trump also has other, more immediate concerns: As The New York Times Editorial Board noted, ârevving up the wall fight allows Mr. Trump to divert attention from so much of the other drama threatening to swallow him up.â
Trump may be undermining his support among congressional Republicans: Combined with the presidentâs sudden decisions to withdraw American troops from Syria and Afghanistan, and the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, the shutdown over border wall funding has some Republican lawmakers [angry or nervous]( about the path of the Trump presidency â and its impact on their own political prospects. âBy placating the far right on immigration, embracing his instincts on foreign policy and unnerving investors with his trade wars and policy gyrations, Mr. Trump is elevating the nativist and noninterventionist elements of his party,â The New York Times [reported](. âIn doing so, he is deeply straining his most important links to mainstream Republican governance, and the national security hawks and conservative business executives who have long been pillars of the right.â
And the shutdown may heighten Wall Streetâs fears: While the partial shutdown isnât likely to cause a sizable economic hit â credit rating analysts at Standard & Poorâs estimate that it could trim $1.2 billion a week from U.S. gross domestic product, according to the Times â it once again raises concerns about the countryâs dysfunctional governance. âThe shutdown could also contribute to the growing sense of worry on Wall Street, in part by raising fears about the ability of Congress to manage a more consequential deadline: the need to authorize an increase in government borrowing before the federal debt reaches the current limit, most likely in March,â the Timesâ Alan Rappeport and Binyamin Appelbaum [noted](.
A programming note: Unless shutdown developments or other fiscal news warrants, The Fiscal Times email newsletter will be back in your inbox January 2. You can visit [our website]( for updates until then.
Send your tips and feedback to yrosenberg@thefiscaltimes.com. Or connect with us on Twitter: [@yuvalrosenberg]( [@mdrainey]( and [@TheFiscalTimes](.
News
- [5 Ways a Partial Government Shutdown Would Inflict Pain]( â Politico
- [Inside the Frantic Negotiations That Failed to Avert a Shutdown]( â Politico
- [Lawmakers Shrug Off Shutdown Drama]( â The Hill
- [GOP Discord on Wall Prolongs Shutdown Fight]( â The Hill
- [As Trump Battles Congress, Federal Workers Are Caught in the Middle]( â Washington Post
- [Amid Government Shutdown, a Host of Bigger Worries]( â Washington Post
- [âThis Is Tyranny of Talk Radio Hosts, Right?â: Limbaugh and Coulter Blamed for Trumpâs Shutdown]( â Washington Post
- [What Will Happen if the Government Shuts Down: Late Paychecks, Closed Museums and More]( â Washington Post
- [Mississippiâs Republican Governor Quietly Considering Medicaid Expansion]( â Politico
Views and Analysis
- [Trumpâs Shutdown Stunt Is an Act of Needless Stupidity]( â Washington Post Editorial Board
- [Shutdown? More Like a Breakdown]( â New York Times Editorial Board
- [Trump Is to Blame for Government Shutdown, but Border Security Is Important]( â Douglas E. Schoen, Fox News
- [Affordable Care Act Predictions Are Always Wrong]( â David Nather, Axios
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