Postcards: The Time My Surgeon Asked for Stock Tips

The nurse was counting down from 10... but the surgeon wanted to know which way the stock market was heading. And then I woke up... ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: The Time My Surgeon Asked for Stock Tips]( The nurse was counting down from 10... but the surgeon wanted to know which way the stock market was heading. And then I woke up... [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Sep 23 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Before we get started, [I’m asking readers to sign up for Postcards from the Republic]( Finpub.com. It’s a quick signup… and we’ll send you the latest report on midstream AI when we wrap it… even if you’re not a member of Republic Risk. [Join me here]( FOR FREE, offer feedback, and get your free report at the start of October. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: Picture this: June 2020, peak pandemic pandemonium. A need to get moving. In a quarantine-induced fitness frenzy, yours truly ordered a workout bench. My grand plan? Emerge from lockdown as a Greek god by turning my body into a weapon. Spoiler alert: It didn't quite pan out that way. Two reps into my first shoulder press session, and Bam! I'd earned myself an umbilical hernia. So much for godhood – I couldn't even sneeze without wincing. Fast-forward two weeks, and I'm face-to-face with a surgeon more interested in my economic insights than my newfound belly button malfunction. He wanted to know how the market crashed by 33% in a month (late February to late March 2020) and then took off like a rocket in the following April. As I shared tales of the Federal Reserve's money-printing extravaganza during the COVID-19 shutdown, his face turned the color of a tuna sandwich on Hostess bread. Turns out he'd sold a large chunk of his portfolio at the market's rock bottom. Oops. Now, he was on the sidelines, sitting in cash, which was starting to get hammered by the oncoming wave of monetary inflation and FOMO. He was like the standup [comedian I mentioned last week]( [wondering why the market stock arrow was going up…]( when we were still locked down across the country. “They printed trillions of dollars…” I told the doctor. “They bailed out the institutions.” He remained convinced that another crash was inevitable in the months ahead. Three weeks later, I'm sprawled on an operating table, about to take my first-ever anesthetic nap. The nurse comes in to provide instructions. She tells me that I’m to count down from 10 and let the gas do its work. But right before counting sheep, the surgeon bursts in like he's late for a CNBC interview. "Hey, it's the economist!" he exclaims. "You were right. Stocks keep going up!" The nurse asks me if I’m ready… Now, I'm moments away from being sliced open, and my surgeon is playing "Ask the Oracle" with me. As the anesthesia mask descends, he leans toward me. All I can see are his wide eyes from over his mask. "Buy they're [the stock market’s] going to go back down, right?" he asks. I mumble through a haze of impending unconsciousness: "10... 9... 8… no... 7..." I hear someone laugh. Then, lights out. I came to three hours later, feeling like I'd just had the weirdest dream of my life. It wasn't a dream. [Upgrade to paid]( During my follow-up, the surgeon – still more interested in my market predictions than my healing incision – asked about Microsoft (MSFT). Should he buy the stock at $200 - even though he’d dumped it months prior at around $140. I gave him my best non-advice possible. since I’m not an RIA. I said, “I’m riding” the SPY and QQQ “until Congress and the Fed stop printing money and finally hike interest rates.” The latter didn’t happen until an incredible 20+ months later. Here's the kicker: The S&P 500 never dipped below its June 2020 level of 3,000 again. I still hear folks predicting doom and gloom, forecasting the S&P will plummet below 4,000. But unless a perfect storm of financial drought hits us, World War III on U.S. soil, or Pandemic 2.0: The Sequel, I wouldn't bet on it. They printed too much money. Until then, remember: In the grand casino of the stock market, the house (read: Fed) always wins, and the money printer goes... BRRRRRR. [As Michael Howell explained]( the monetary cycle is still far from peaking. There Have a glance at the chart. YOU ARE HERE. Michael Howell, Capital Wars This morning, in Republic Risk, I’ll discuss the next phase for expanding capital in the markets… and what’s happening RIGHT NOW in China that could unleash the next big wave of gains for the S&P 500 and the global markets. Republic Risk readers will have it in their inbox when the market opens this morning. Sign up for a month and get access to our upcoming AI report and the first prime edition of K Street Confidential. [Upgrade to paid]( I’ll be back tomorrow with [a shorter breakdown of our worldview.]( We’ll keep it simple… you deserve it. Stay positive and keep your abs clenched, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Ill-Timed Workouts Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()