Postcards: My Dream Last Night... and the Week Ahead

Waking up in a good mood is a lot better than not. Plus, there are things you cannot unsee as we head into the Fed meeting this week. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: My Dream Last Night... and the Week Ahead]( Waking up in a good mood is a lot better than not. Plus, there are things you cannot unsee as we head into the Fed meeting this week. Sep 14   [READ IN APP](   Editor’s Note: I previously only sent this to our Insider readers. My apologies if you have received this a second time. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: I fell asleep late last night. A 2 am evening. Things have been stressful. I’ve essentially had a lost year professionally. I gave up a lot to move back to Maryland, and things have just stood still. I finally fell asleep… twice last night. I had two dreams. The first featured a fellow financial publishing expert from my time at Money Map Press. In the dream, I ran into him on the street. He was well-dressed (as always) and told me he was marrying a younger woman I might know. I did know her well from Northwestern. I was surprised by the news… (isn’t she married now?) Cut to I’m sitting at an engagement party with another friend from college who now lives in London. Attendees are giving speeches about this wonderful engagement. And she’s sitting at what resembles a game-show seat on a stage with a giant heart behind her. “What do you mean you haven’t prepared a speech? You’re up next,” my friend says. Oh gosh, I thought. What do I say? And for some reason, my brain returned to the things I hate most about financial promotions. As I approached the microphone, I looked across this chasm of space at this woman - beaming in a blue dress as she waved to me. And all I could think to say was… “I’m so happy to hear about your engagement. Listen, if you marry my friend, you can have three years of happiness… five years of happiness… even a Lifetime of Happiness…” It was a riff on the pitch I can’t stand… the one where the salesperson says that a research service buyer can make 3x your money, 5x your money…, or even 10x your money. I could hear laughter at the joke - and my former colleague from Money Map looked at me, laughing hysterically… He was shaking his head, eyes squinting and pinching his nose, the way he laughs… He clapped after that… And then I woke up… Getting Re-Married My second dream took me back roughly a decade. Tomorrow will be 13 years since I went on my first date with my wife. We were getting married in the dream, but we’d chosen an odd venue somewhere in Pennsylvania. The dream was quick. There were the good nerves of the night before - where we talked and said we’d be husband and wife the next day. Then, she’s walking down the aisle. Then, there’s an odd, wooden dining hall. People are sitting at tables. But they’re only half full. For the first time in a while, I couldn’t feel any of my current problems… I was just happy where I was—my wife and me—and with the freedom of those early years. But half the guests haven’t arrived, and a few people are grumbling about the quality of the reception hall. Suddenly, people walk in—hungover and congratulatory… the party has started…, and they apologize for missing the ceremony. But I didn’t care. That’s a feeling that I’ve been chasing. All the stress, all the nerves… There was none of that there. I got a lot off my chest this week from the stress of the last year. And then I woke up - in a good mood in the morning for the first time… in months. With that in mind… let’s optimistically get to the week ahead. The Main Event It’s TIMMMEEEEEE… It’s the Fed Open Market Committee meeting of September. It’s the Super Bowl of Wall Street, where we all gather around like it’s the season finale of "Survivor." But instead of winning cash, we get anxious about interest rates. And there he is, Jerome Powell, the man, the myth, the interest rate whisperer. The media hangs on every word like he’s revealing the secret formula to Coca-Cola. And every journalist plays Fed Bingo—was the tie blue or red? Did he say “inflation” or “transitory”? Did he blink twice when mentioning rate hikes? Oh, and the hard-hitting questions like, “Chair Powell, can you explain the economic outlook in terms of farm animal metaphors?” It’s all theater. Interest rates haven’t mattered… for a year because private funds and shadow banks have pumped trillions of dollars into the system while Janet Yellen is playing fiscal alchemy with the Treasury. Cross Border Capital But the bond markets are VERY bullish that the Fed will cut by 50 basis points. The spread over the two years and the Fed funds rate is massive. So, are they too dovish… or is the Fed well behind on policy? We’re about to find out. Syz Group - Weekly Letter Chart of the Week Here’s where inflation lies in one chart - the “official” numbers. Housing prices are at their highest ever compared to median income. But once again, Big Home and Big Grocery are the problem. But the really bad one is in auto insurance. I hate to say it, but it’s going up because the other people on the road AREN’T insured. The cost of paying for an accident with an uninsured driver is more than just yourself. So, you’re paying for your hospital bills and repair… what a great, idiotic system. Monday, September 16, 2024 Event: The Denver Gold Forum begins. Republic Speak: With monetary inflation surging… and central banks scooping up as much gold as they can, I’m convinced that mainstream financial media does not understand what is happening. The fiat financial system is under extreme strain. Since the global liquidity cycle bottomed in October 2022, gold prices have been up… from a low of roughly $1,630… to $2,600. Here’s the Zerohedge chart. Zerohedge Is anyone home? This is not complicated. We discussed it in the of Tomorrow]( six months ago when gold prices were $2,100. Gold prices jumped $500 (24%) an ounce since we laid out the monetary inflation explosion argument. And if China does come off the top rope and injects between $1.4 trillion and (what’s likely more needed in the $2.0 trillion range), then we’re going to see a further acceleration in global capital creation—accelerating us to a new market top, which will likely peak at the end of next year or early 2026. Then what? Don’t worry about it now. Just get the bag… Tuesday, September 17, 2024 Event: The FTC trial to block the merger of Kroger (KR) and Albertsons Companies (ACI) will move into closing arguments. Republic Speak: Get ready for everyone, everywhere, to become an expert on grocery store prices. On Twitter… On CNN. And of course… on the campaign trail. Here’s the government stepping in like the superhero nobody asked for, waving its anti-consolidation cape around grocery stores like it’s breaking up the mafia. We’re talking about grocery stores, where profit margins barely exceed 3%. Apple’s out here with its 30% margins, selling iPhones that cost a kidney, and politicians say, “Yeah, that’s fine, no big deal.” It feels like no one understands where food originates. The grocery store is not Willy Wonka’s factory, where workers are just whipping up bread, eggs, and lettuce in the back room. News flash: grocery stores don’t grow the food—they stack it and pray you don’t complain about the price of avocados. They’re focusing on grocery store mergers because they need a scapegoat for the inflation they caused. We printed too much money and still aren’t even because we have a bad supply-side policy in America. Can we turn half the golf courses in the nation into farms? The golf courses use more water anyway. Wednesday, September 18, 2024 Event: FOMC Meeting Concludes, 2:30 pm Jerome Powell Speech Republic Speak: The bar opens at 11, so I advise everyone to consider at least a stiff one as Powell takes the stage to defend an aggressive rate cut at a time when inflation remains elevated… and China is on the verge of pumping significantly. They’ve lost the plot, especially with trillions of dollars in government stimulus still coming off the sidelines in 2025 and 2026. If you like gold prices at $2,600… you’ll love them at $2,800. Barring another China or Japan meltdown… which is still in the cards… I expect they’ll fix the system with major coordination if things get tough, and then it’s a resumption of more pumping. People do realize that this is all the system is, right? It’s over and over and over. Since 2008, we’ve had COUNTLESS efforts to fix the broken financial systems, and the only solution is MORE money into the system. Capital moves the markets. Ainslee Wealth This happened in March 2009… it happened in August 2011. It happened in January 2016. It happened in late 2018. It happened in March 2020. It happened in October 2022. It happened in April 2023. It happened in October 2023. It’s happening AGAIN. The only two charts you need to follow (after our Equity Strength Signals) are two fold. First… watch the rate of insider buying to selling in real dollars. The massive surge of insider buying (blue line) has complimented the short-term crisis bottom and the major policy shift from one or multiple central banks. EVERY SINGLE TIME. SecForm4.com I’m begging you… BUY THE DIP. They refuse to let asset prices crash. Second, could you pay close attention to the performance of AIG stock? The company that once insured half of the Western hemisphere’s credit default swaps is the poster child linked to central bank bailouts. Every time insiders across the S&P 500 buy, the central banks pivot to support the system… AIG benefits. Look at the dates… they’re the same periods I outlined above. August 2011… January 2016… October 2018… March 2020…. October 2022…. October 2023… And recently… April 2024 and during the Nikkei crash… Why does AIG rally? Central bank actions help reduce default risk on a global basis. You’ll notice that the Mega 7 tech stocks had their best week since March 2023. What happened that month? The Fed shifted policies and opened the discount window to banks… a significant policy shift. Do you think it’s a coincidence that we just saw this happen when discussing major policy shifts from the Fed, Peoples Bank of China, and European Central Banks? Tomorrow… I’ll do a long video explaining all of this. If you don’t understand or you have questions… ask. Thursday, September 19, 2024 Event: FedEx (FDX) earnings Republic Speak: Oh, FedEx earnings are out again? Better drop everything—it’s the economy’s report card day! I can’t think of a better company to report earnings the day after the Federal Reserve updates its policy. Will it be an A+ in "Delivering Amazon Regrets" or a D- in "Oops, We Lost Your Stuff"? If I ever created a crappy TV show about Wall Street analysts, I’d focus on the ones tied to FedEx and Amazon. I’d call it “CSI: Logistics” - who dissect every missing cent of profits like a crime scene. FedEx is the Santa Claus of shipping, knowing who’s buying, selling, or just endlessly scrolling. Good earnings? Economy’s cruising. Bad earnings? It's time to learn how to bake bread. You should know how to make bread anyway… Friday, September 20, 2024 Event: WTI Crude Oil Contract Expiration, Quad Witching Republic Speak: There have been a lot of questions about oil recently. Since our energy signal went negative on August 27, it’s been a terrible time for energy stocks. Unfortunately, they’ve gotten rid of the NRGU (a leveraged ETF that tracked the performance of the Top 10 U.S. energy names), and it’s harder for me to track using traditional signals. But I have used the XLE since… and the Orange Circles give you a sense of when to start looking for deeper outflows on an individual sector. We had a trademark squeeze three days later, and it went under all three support levels there. The XLE fell nearly 9% in two weeks. There’s been a recent squeeze - as we focus on what’s happening with the Fed, the European Central Bank, and China’s monetary support levels. The names I’m watching right now are Chevron (CVX) and Occidental (OXY). As I recently noted, four stocks were currently ignored by mutual funds and heavily shorted by hedge funds heading into last week, according to Goldman Sachs (GS). Those are: - Intel (INTC) - which I think is a long-term bargain - Moderna (MRNA) - which is searching for a bottom at a time when its product pipeline struggles. - Tesla (TSLA) is up over 60% since the April Tax Season selloff and is consistenly resilient (and benefits from central banking policy and government fiat). - Chevron (CVX) - which confounds me as it just had a major deepwater breakthrough and made a huge pivot away from the United States by purchasing Hess (HES), a company with one of the most prolific deepwater oil discoveries in the world. Then, there’s Occidental. As I said this week, Buffett hasn’t supported the stock at all in the last few weeks despite the fact that he had consistently provided the “Berkshire Put” on the stock if it got under $56. [This officially kills the Buffett trade]( that we’ve deployed for two years (and fortunately, our most recent insider play on it would require us to take delivery on the stock at $52.50 in November.) I think Buffett will start to resume buying Occidental starting AFTER Quad Witching. But if he doesn’t add another two or three percent to his existing ~29% stake in Occidental (OXY)… or at least something to provide confidence. If he doesn’t, I’d be surprised - as he’s currently averaged in at $54 per share. That surprise would instill a little fear in me… Okay… that’s all. Dream big… but most of all… Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()