Why Today's Market Rally Might Be Fool's Gold

Wall Street’s putting on rose-colored glasses. Should you? ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [Why Today's Market Rally Might Be Fool's Gold]( Wall Street’s putting on rose-colored glasses. Should you? [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Sep 11 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   Put on your rose-colored glasses because that’s exactly what Wall Street traders did today. Yesterday, I wrote about the Fed’s upcoming rate cut and the great debate—will it be 25 or 50 basis points? Well, today’s rally was driven by the belief that a 25-basis point cut is all but certain, even though the economic data flashing ahead screams caution. So, what sparked today’s optimism? Let’s rewind to this morning. The S&P 500 futures took a hit right after the CPI report. The index dropped 1.64% during the first hour of trading, but then, like a phoenix, it rallied 2.68%, closing higher for the session. But why? That’s where the numbers game comes in. As the old saying goes, “people with numbers lie,” and today’s CPI data fit that analogy perfectly. The good news is that overall inflation is trending downward towards the Fed’s magic number of 2%. Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: when you strip away volatile items like food and gas—items that matter most to everyday consumers—inflation actually ticked higher, driven by rising housing and travel costs. For the average American, the inflation picture isn’t as rosy as Wall Street would have you believe. One reason behind this inflation “dip” is oil. The cost of oil has been falling, pushing down gas prices with it. Though Hurricane Francine briefly nudged oil prices up today, the broader trend has been downward, from $85 a barrel in July to $65 this week. This decline has OPEC+ rethinking their strategy, pushing any output hikes into the future. But oil isn’t saving the economy—it’s masking deeper issues. The real driver behind today’s market rally? You guessed it: Nvidia. Nvidia has been the market’s white knight for months now. And once again, it pulled the market up, with shares surging 8%. Remember that trade alert I sent to my paid subscribers back on September 3rd? It was a detailed breakdown on Nvidia’s next big move, showing you exactly how to play its pullback. Today, that trade is up 63%, and we’re holding out for 75% before cashing out. If you missed that trade, don’t worry. You can check out my original analysis [right here](. While that exact setup isn’t valid anymore, the research and strategy I outlined will be useful the next time Nvidia pulls back. And trust me, the opportunity will come again. You just need patience. If you want more ideas like this, stay tuned—I’ve got more coming for my paid subscribers to this research soon. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. The VIX closed today at 17.69—still above its historical mean. Volatility is oscillating. Stocks can sell off without a major spike in volatility, which means we need to be cautious, not complacent. What’s next? Tomorrow brings two key economic reports: Initial Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI). These reports will give us more insight into whether this rally has legs or if we’re about to see another sell-off. One more thing that’s flying under the radar: the Japanese Yen. Finviz It’s gaining strength, which has put pressure on the Nikkei. Keep an eye on this, as the Yen’s movements could signal deeper issues for global markets. Today’s rally might feel good, but don’t get too comfortable. Stay focused, and keep watching the data. Trade smart, Josh Belanger You’re currently a free subscriber. Upgrade for the full experience and receive exclusive special reports like "How to Get Rich in The Stock Market" and "Congress' Secret Stock Playbook: The Top 5 Power Picks Revealed”. [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()