Postcards: Things You Can't Unsee

Whether it's housing prices or the week ahead... the answers are right in front of you. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Things You Can't Unsee]( Whether it's housing prices or the week ahead... the answers are right in front of you. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Sep 8 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: Earlier today, I listened to two economists spar over housing prices. Why are housing prices so high? On one side, there was the obvious… the U.S. government continues to subsidize housing when subsidies aren’t needed. If you promise to give new homebuyers $25,000 in free money to purchase their new home… don’t be shocked if the average house goes up in price by… $25,000. Spending money because prices are high… This is lunacy. On the other side… there was the supply-side argument. There’s demographics… high labor costs… high land costs… and alot of regulation impacting the ability to create new supply. And… both people are right. But there was ZERO mention of the most obvious influence. The money supply. The Federal Reserve has engaged in inflation targeting for 31 years, and we recently increased the U.S. money supply by a whopping 30%+ in the last few years since the pandemic. And if you just do the obvious… put the U.S. money supply on a chart with the residential property price index - you end up with this. This is called a Direct Causal Relationship. When you increase the amount of money… that money chases finite supply. And nominal prices go up. We’ll probably see a doubling in the global monetary base over the next 15 years - from $176 TRILLION to $350 trillion… Don’t be shocked to see housing prices keep going higher. And yet… no one in Washington understands that the policies are all terrible because they don’t address the underlying problem: Too much debt and credit. This isn’t complicated. But we make it so because they ignore the elephant in the room. That power over the monetary supply is what drives Washington D.C. It’ll go until it breaks. Let’s get to the week ahead. Monday, September 9, 2024 Event: Apple (AAPL) “Glowtime” Event (More Details on the iPhone 16) Republic Speak: Just buy the stupid dip on Apple. If we have any liquidity event in the next two months, just be ready to buy this stock. I wouldn’t be shocked if it hits $250 by the end of next year - and then… that’d be the time to sell it. Money moves markets, as the Solomon Brothers guys like to say… and Americans aren’t letting go of their cell phones anytime soon. This company’s moat is unlike anything in tech, and now they’re going to make new accelerations in Artificial Intelligence. It’s hard to look at a $220 stock and think it’s cheap. But based on the long-term time horizon… it is. Tuesday, September 10, 2024 Event: Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) attends the NYSE Energy & Utilities Investor Access Day. The Presidential debate. Republic Speak: I’ve received some questions about EPD in the wake of the recent downturn in oil prices. But as I continue to note - it doesn’t matter if oil prices decline. Production costs are coming down, and oil will remain the dominant transportation fuel for the next 25 years (according to the EIA). Give me EPD all day as a company that’ll pay me north of 7% in yield and has double-digit, annualized total return potential. Concerning the debate, you couldn’t pay me to watch it. Don’t do this to yourself. Wednesday, September 11, 2024 Event: August CPI Republic Speak: They suggest that the CPI will come in at 3.2% annualized. That’s not good. It won’t change the fact that the Fed is still going to cut rates in September. But if China does pump in January… the Fed will lose the fight. We’re still well away from the 2% target, and cutting interest rates would be a huge mistake. But I’m not in charge of the Fed. All I can do is be the guy in six to eight months: “I told you so,” as the Fed has to consider raising interest rates again. China is in a debt-deflation trap, and the only solution for them is to stimulate. That’s going to have far-reaching, global consequences, and monetary inflation is going to explode. And the people in the media are just cheering on the same reckless nonsense over and over. This was an actual headline in the Washington Post last week. “An easy way to fix that…” These people are out of their minds… sycophants for centralized planning. Want to fix the U.S. economy? Gut regulations, reduce spending, and put more control in the hands of people - aka the private sector. Otherwise… be quiet. Washington is a bubble… an insane bubble. I’m tired of being nice about this. These people are ruining people’s lives. Thursday, September 12, 2024 Event: The European Central Bank will likely cut interest rates Republic Speak: Now… this is a situation. Europe requires interest rate cuts and will move down to 3.5%. But the people in Europe - especially Germany - are committing economic suicide. They BADLY need structural reform. And they won’t get it because of politics. As I noted, Germany’s entire economy was leveraged on cheap Russian natural gas. And now… they’re “Energiewende” is a complete disaster. A decade ago, I was in Germany learning about the failure of the Desertec project that they were funding. They keep doubling down on bad policies. [Here’s Forbes:]( On Friday, [Pierre L. Gosselin]( published an article that asked in all seriousness, “The ‘greener’ Germany gets, the bloodier its economy becomes. No kidding… Why is this happening? I can’t blame stupidity anymore. I’m blaming malice. I’d check the politicians' bank accounts. It’s the only thing we haven’t looked into… and it’s time. They’re more incompetent than American leadership. But they might wake up faster than we do. Electricity prices are going up globally. And the solution will be more of the same. Friday, September 13, 2024 Event: Nothing… Republic Speak: So, there isn’t anything significant on the docket. But I’d expect that we’ll start to see some stability in the market this week. It’s possible that we move to oversold conditions by Friday on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI). I’d be looking for opportunities in the market ahead of the Quad Witching on September 20. All right… gonna go watch some Bills highlights. I can’t believe they won that game. Also, 65 percent of my survivor pool was knocked out today because they all took the Bengals. I took the Eagles. Survive and advance. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()