Postcards: Five Things I Think I Think

We skipped the weekly recap on Sunday so that I could hang out at my family's bar and draft a horrible fantasy football team. You don't need to hear about it. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Five Things I Think I Think]( We skipped the weekly recap on Sunday so that I could hang out at my family's bar and draft a horrible fantasy football team. You don't need to hear about it. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Aug 26 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: On Sunday, we held our 18th annual fantasy football draft. I’ve run it off and on for years, but now that I’m home, the commissioner seat is mine again. We lost a member this year. He passed away, but he was a staple of my league. I want to honor him with a quick story. In December 2021, I was on a three-day geopolitical risk project with a European client. They had a lot of exposure to Russia, and the overall expectation was that Putin would invade very soon. I believed it would happen because my friend and business partner told me he was 85% confident that the war would happen in October of that year. We were assessing their assets. What could they sell? What should they dump? Would they be exposed to international sanctions? On a Sunday morning… I hadn’t slept - as I was writing up a long list of shipping companies that were set to face challenges due to Russia’s invasion. It’s now about noon, and I’m on a call with the client. My phone starts ringing—it won’t stop. It’s from a 410 number in Maryland. I ignore the call and keep talking about oil shipping. The client is nervous and stressed and trying to unload risk before the rest of the market catches onto the situation. The 410 number calls again. I ignore it. Then it calls again. And… then again. Finally, I turned to the other people on the call. “I keep getting a call from a number back in Maryland. I have to take it.” I was worried it was a hospital. People don’t call like that unless it’s an emergency. So, I take the call. And I ended up with the complete opposite of my expectations. “Garrett… It’s Larry. So, Jeremy has a guy in his Injured Reserve who doesn’t have COVID. And that’s an illegal lineup. And we need to tell him before kickoff,” he said. I just smile at the difference between those two calls. I had two problems to address: a massive geopolitical threat and a fantasy football lineup. I laugh about that moment. I considered the things that matter: the joy of hobbies. Larry was a great guy who raised his granddaughter as his daughter due to his child’s health problems. This silly game that we play on weekends was his refuge. He was one of the most knowledgeable people I’d ever met about the sport of football. Now, I won’t bore you about my team this year. No one should be telling other people about their fantasy sports lineups. recall that column that I wrote right here.]( Instead… let’s get to the other things on my mind. [Upgrade to paid]( No. 2: We Really Screwed Libya Up On Muammar Muhammad Abu Minyar al-Gaddafi… Hillary Clinton once said… [“We came. We saw. He died.”]( Then she laughed. It bothers me. It always will. It’s one of the creepiest things I’ve ever heard. More than a decade later, Libya is in shambles after al-Gaddafi’s death. Cato Institute has correctly dubbed Libya’s political situation [a real-life version of Game of Thrones](. This morning, crude oil prices spiked above $80 after the nation’s eastern government announced it was pulling all its oil exports off the market. We’re talking about 1.8 million barrels a day. And there’s no easy fix here. As usual, our energy ambassadors and convoys are dropping the ball. They’re acting like Willy Wonka - faintly saying… “Stop. Don’t. Come back.” European markets should be worried. That’s where about 72% of Libya’s oil exports travel. This only adds more pressure to the market when there’s still uncertainty on OPEC’s timing of bringing production cuts back online. As I’ve said before - and I’ll say again - there’s money to be made in the U.S. Consider the [Warren Buffett Occidental (OXY) trade or look to the midstream](. [You also have my Enterprise Product Partners (EPD) report at your disposal](. No. 3: Jerome Powell is Not Funny As I noted at Republic Insider, Jerome Powell made some jokes on Friday. He spoke about the “Good Ship Transitory” - referencing the central bank’s botched call that inflation would be “transitory” after the Pandemic. It wasn’t. Inflation was structural and permanent. Prices didn’t go back down. If you blink hard enough, it does sound like an apology. But a dismissive one. So then I said, "If you think I'm bad at relationships, you should see my inflation rate!" Oh well… sorry we crushed the middle class with bad policy… People in the room laughed at his jokes… because they want access to power. But in the Republic, we shook our heads. The central bank and Congress are responsible for the more than 20% price jump we’ve witnessed in a few years. There is also plenty more monetary inflation on the way. [Citigroup’s warning about Treasury expansion]( and repo requirements made the hair stand on my arm. If you missed our report in Q1, I’ve posted it here, including a simple playbook for the long term. The Hedge Of Tomorrow 2.21MB ∙ PDF file [Download]( No. 4: Electricity Blackouts Are Coming Wind is not economical. [The fact that the State of New York]( is paying about four to five times the amount of money for what should cost a fraction in electricity generation proves this grift. Here’s the other problem. The state is way too behind on reform to its grid, so battery storage projects aren’t accelerated to help store and direct power. This is going to be a very similar problem in Maryland in the years ahead. Blackouts are coming. [But the media will do its best to tell us that blackouts are good for us.]( No. 5: Holy Cow… Baseball is Confusing I took my daughter to the Baltimore Orioles game on Saturday. She told me that she wanted to learn how to keep score. I learned how to do that at five years old with my father ([one of the five things he taught me at that age]( It lasted about three minutes. She said… “Daddy, this is really confusing.” “This whole sport is confusing,” I replied. That elicited laughs from the people around us. My daughter isn’t really interested in the game. She likes the pageantry of it. She got dressed up on her own in Orange, White, and Black. She ate ice cream (which forced us to miss the actually highlight of the game). And she drew pictures of the stadium from the seats in right field. I don’t think she understands the rules. But I can’t even begin to try to explain them. It’s the most absurd sport in the world when you actually start talking about it. About a decade ago, I went to a Chicago White Sox game with my Greek friend and his cousin. The cousin lived in Greece and had never seen baseball before. He asked me to explain the rules. I started that process… the bases… the positions… the number of balls against strikes… and I stopped. “Wow, this is pretty insane now that I think about it,” I said. And with that… an eight-year-old boy behind me tapped me on the shoulder and said… “I can explain it.” The kid spent the next hour - in detail - explaining the game to the Greek. And I realized that only an eight-year-old boy has the excitement and patience to actually explain these rules. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Defense Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()