Postcards: Covid Redux and the Week Ahead

The extraction economy hit again. Today, I got to navigate the American healthcare system, and it's just as bad as I remember. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Covid Redux and the Week Ahead]( The extraction economy hit again. Today, I got to navigate the American healthcare system, and it's just as bad as I remember. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jun 30 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: I suppose there’s a hint of irony in the American healthcare system. I’ve been waiting eight weeks for an MRI at Johns Hopkins, and ten weeks for my first appointment with a new primary healthcare provider. And then last night, I started to feel weird. Today, I paid $24.00 for a COVID test. How is that even a thing? When it turned positive, I went to the Urgent care, which was another $50.00. And then they said that because they’re worried about the impact of Plaxovid on kidneys now… they wanted to run blood tests first. What a country. The next stop was to the grocery store - and about $70 in protein drinks, Vitamin C, Zinc, and Prime drink. Then another $30 in fruits and vegetables. Covid - Zero Stars. Earlier, I was in bed watching Clear and Present Danger, but I fell back asleep and had a fever-dream conversation with John Lennon about live music. At 6 pm I woke up… Then I remembered that I needed to do three things. First, watch the Orioles game… but I’m blocked out because the only place in the house that has ESPN is on the first floor. Second, send Postcards. Third… complete the Second Half Reversion Momentum portfolio. You know, even if I’m sick, I don’t need to worry about telling a story when building a portfolio... It’s all in the data. So, in the morning, I’ll release five or six new stocks for the second half - that we’re actively trading - and what’s beautiful is that we use the math to identity the plays, and not some trend or theme. As I’ve said, I expect that trucking will be bottoming out in the second half, which is great news for a 18 to 24 month portfolio. And there’s a company out in Las Vegas that has really caught my attention. Plus, it’s looking good for the Private Mortgage Insurance world as housing prices rise. We’ll be actively trading these names over the next six months. Sign up now… [Get 20% off for 1 year]( Now, let’s get to the short week ahead… State of the Market Since 1928, the first two weeks of July are the best performing for the S&P 500… It’s about a 1.9% return during that period. This is happening as we move into the Blackout period for corporate buybacks. The never-ending crowding into the top tier of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 is starting to hit a level that should concern investors. The Nasdaq Index is the most overbought since 2018 - and this chart is a reminder to ALWAYS buy when it moves into oversold conditions. This is just how the markets work when about 80% of it is on autopilot and the Fed does everything it can to avoid a deflation debt trap. I think the market on Friday also didn’t like the news from the debate. There is a lot going on right now in the Democratic Party, and it’s very difficult to gauge who might be the replacement for Biden - if that were to occur. What does say a Whitmer ticket mean for the markets? What does a Newsom ticket mean? What does Kamala Harris mean for the equity markets? To be honest, no one has the first idea - because Biden represented the status quo. This whole situation is a mess, and I’m just biting my tongue because I have lost complete and total faith in the media after the last two weeks. You have to remember that I went to Medill - and I try my best to give the media some “human” benefit of the doubt. But after everything that the press has been wrong about over the last five years, this situation with the President is a gross violation. As I’ve long noted, it’s all just a big collection of people trying to save their jobs… regardless of the truth. All that said, markets are starting to price in a Trump victory in November, according to Goldman Sachs (GS). Monday, July 1, 2024 Event: Tesla Deliveries (TSLA) Republic Speak: It’s been a minute since I thought about Elon Musk. The last time I did, a former fraternity brother was offering shareholders a bottle of alcohol if they helped him find a way to reduce the weight of the Tesla battery. Tuesday, July 2, 2024 Event: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joins the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2024. Republic Speak: Markets continue to rally despite news that we’re probably not going to see a rate cut this year. Once again, the market is not the economy, and the economy is not the market. It’s incredible to witness - because global liquidity is expanding, while the Fed’s balance sheet is sinking. I will say taht the single most important article you’ll read this weekend is at Bloomberg, where they highlight the Fed’s role in the collapse of the Yen. [This is the weaponization we’ve discussed.]( Wednesday, July 3, 2024 Event: Markets Close at 1:00 pm. Fed Minutes, ADP Report Republic Speak: This is a tricky one for the markets. The minutes from the most recent Fed meeting arrive. The markets will be closed on Wednesday afternoon and the following day. Minutes will likely show the expectation for a single rate cut at the end of the year - but I still don’t think we’ll see one until January. Markets still seem optimistic that two cuts will come by December based on the most recent Fed Watch. Thursday, July 4, 2024 Event: Markets are closed for Independence Day. Republic Speak: Eat a lot of meats. It was always my second favorite holiday growing up. We’d drive down to Ocean City, Maryland and eat crabs overlooking the Bay. It’s interesting to be back here in Maryland now during this holiday. It’s been a very long time. So, hopefully I’m feeling better by then and can fire up the grill. Friday, July 5, 2024 Event: June Jobs Report Republic Speak: This one could be a tough one. We expect that we’ll still see lots of government and healthcare jobs. Remember, the True Rate of Unemployment - which measures “the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $25,000 annually before taxes.” [That figure is 24.6%.]( You’re not allowed to talk about this. Stay positive… Garrett {NAME} Secretary of Covid Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()