Postcards: Things I Think From 4,444 Miles Away

We conclude my first major vacation in about a decade - and return back to Maryland Thursday in an all-day travel affair. Let's look back on how things change and stay the same. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Things I Think From 4,444 Miles Away]( We conclude my first major vacation in about a decade - and return back to Maryland Thursday in an all-day travel affair. Let's look back on how things change and stay the same. [Garrett {NAME}](floridarepublic) Jun 26 floridarepublic   [READ IN APP](   [REPUBLIC RISK READERS, CLICK HERE.]( Dear Fellow Expat: This will be a difficult trip home… as I will again see America with new eyes, heading back at the start of peak insanity: the 2024 Election Season. But here we are… winding down in Rome. I’m taking my daughter to see the ballet this evening and then putting a lid on it. Tomorrow, we’ll be back… to the Florida Republic state of mind… surrounded by the ongoing Banana Republic realities… Some thoughts after this trip. I Could Live in Milan (And Probably Will) Of all the places I’ve traveled to, Milan felt like I already lived there. It is gritty, busy, and a constant work in progress… a description of me. You could drop me in there at any time, and I’d feel at home and able to navigate. My Italian was serviceable, but everyone was more excited to speak to me in English. The Milanese did find out that I was American - and had lots of questions about the 2024 election. I didn’t answer them. But the one man who lived in Denver in the 1990s bailed and moved back to Italy after the Columbine Shooting. He couldn’t wrap his mind out of what he hears in the news about California these days… Aside from that… I rarely had another conversation about the U.S. Which was the point. The Past is No Place to Live From Genoa to Rome, Italy's stories are beautiful and tragic at the same time. Genoa is very proud of its once-world dominance but stands as a place deeply locked to its past. The United States is becoming the same way. While I deeply appreciate history (I was a double major in the subject) - because it tells us where we’ve been and where we’re going - I hope we can innovate our way out of our problems. That’s what the U.S. government needs to unleash - instead of fighting over crumbling cities. Chicago isn’t going to make it… and what a great city it was before the population voted for people dedicated to extracting every dollar possible out of the population in favor of one or two special interest groups. That pattern will likely accelerate. I Look Like Titus This was an interesting observation. While walking through the Colosseum, we would see black and white composites of various former Emperors. This instantly hit me… because I have a bit of a man on the moon composite. This is Titus on the right, and this is me - operating on about four hours of sleep and out in the Rome heat at nine am—same vibes. I need to get some sleep… America is an Extraction Factory The thing I recall - before I even step foot back into the U.S. is what we’ve become. And over-financialized extraction factory… a place where we used to build things but now reach into the next guy’s pocket. If we think that lawfare is bad now, consider that the lawyers will continue to press for an expansion of grievances. They’re not just raiding the Treasury - which has been common since the 2008 crisis - they’re extracting the populace now through inflation and higher taxes. I’m Radically Changing My Diet This is a difficult one. But it has to happen. I’ve lost weight on this trip - walking… but it’s also the food. I haven’t needed to take any anti-inflammation drugs for arthritis. It’s clearly all starting in the gut when flares happen. It’s the food. American food is starchy… carb-dense… and the quality can be really bad. Plus, it's salty. So, I said I’d start with the Mediterranean Diet, but I might have to go more extreme. Wish me luck because I really like Chipotle but will give it up for the summer. Great… I get to be that guy at the restaurant eating lettuce and onions. Listen to Your Body I had to call it a night yesterday early at dinner. I was exhausted… and went more than 30,000 steps two days before the Vatican and the Roman Forum. But I’m glad I did; I feel much better this morning. I didn’t sleep well for a long time, contributing to stress and bad dietary habits. So, I can’t be afraid to sleep eight or nine hours anymore—as long as the rest of the day is highly productive. Let’s see how well we adhere to this rule. Hey… The Market Didn’t Crash! Despite all the caterwauling on Twitter, the market didn’t crash while I was away. Yes, the market's underbelly is under great stress, but liquidity has remained strong, and investors continue to speculate. It’s impossible to predict exactly when the market will go down, but it does feel like we’re in a 2006-07 position, and the worst likely won’t happen until next year or the following year. As we’ve noted, staying in quality companies with strong management and reliable valuations is really important. I’m Glad to Get Back to Work Finally, I like my job. Although the markets can be repetitive. Although U.S. politics are insane to me. Although the world is facing a lot of stress and geopolitical pressure, it is a joy to point a camera at the world and tell a story. So, as we head into the second half of the year - we have a lot to cover. Themes like: - Winners and losers around the election… - A lucrative opportunity as the U.S. strikes back at OPEC - Emerging opportunities in the U.S. energy midstream - Seven reversion candidates for the second half - Why it’s a great time to buy entrenched companies in the S&P 500 - How M&A will accelerate, and fewer companies will remain public. It will be a fun second half, as always. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()