You vs. The Fed's Inflation Gamble

Market Sizzle: Consumer Confidence Falls, Corporate Tax Cuts, Oil Surplus Looms ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more [You vs. The Fed's Inflation Gamble]( Market Sizzle: Consumer Confidence Falls, Corporate Tax Cuts, Oil Surplus Looms [Josh Belanger](joshbelanger) Jun 14 joshbelanger   [READ IN APP](   TGIF! Ever wondered why your candy and pizza look so vibrant? The secret might surprise you: titanium dioxide. It’s the same ingredient found in sunscreen, but now concerns are rising about its safety in food. Fed's Inflation Gamble Fed’s Mester sees inflation risks staying high. She spoke about this during interviews at Bloomberg’s office. Mester thinks inflation is still a problem despite some good news. Recent data shows inflation at its slowest in three years. The consumer price index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.2% in May and 3.4% over a year. Mester wants more good reports before lowering rates. She believes more needs to be done to ensure inflation drops to 2%. The Fed's latest meeting suggests only one rate cut this year. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee also noted May's CPI was good but just one month of data. Mester will step down soon, with Beth Hammack taking over in August. Consumer Confidence Crumbles US consumer sentiment dropped to a seven-month low in June. The University of Michigan's index fell to 65.6 from 69.1. Economists expected it to rise to 72. People think prices will go up by 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, up from 3% in May. They also expect a 3.3% rise in costs over the next year, same as last month. Views of personal finances fell to the lowest since October. The unemployment rate rose to 4%, the highest in over two years. Survey director Joanne Hsu said high prices still strain family budgets, despite wage gains. Middle-income views now resemble lower-income ones, breaking historical patterns. The drop in sentiment suggests weaker consumer demand ahead. The measure for buying durable goods hit its lowest since December 2022. Trump's Tax Cut Promise Donald Trump promised to lower the corporate tax rate to 20%. He made this pitch to CEOs of major companies, including JPMorgan Chase and Apple. The current rate is 21%, but even a small cut means billions for big companies. Trump wants to make permanent the 2017 tax law. He also plans to cut regulations and improve the permitting process for energy projects. In contrast, White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients shared Biden's plans. Biden aims to work with the private sector and protect the American economy. He focuses on subsidies, infrastructure projects, and immigration reform. Zients assured that Biden would maintain America's global role and avoid trade wars with allies. Oil Glut Crisis Looms The world faces a huge oil surplus by 2030, says the International Energy Agency. US and Middle East producers are investing more in oil. This extra oil could lower prices and hurt OPEC+'s control. The surplus could reach 8 million barrels per day. This would be a record outside of the pandemic. IEA's director, Fatih Birol, says this oversupply could cause lower oil prices. He thinks producers need to rethink their plans. Demand for oil is expected to drop before 2030. This is due to more electric vehicles and renewable energy. OPEC disputes these forecasts, warning of energy chaos if investments stop. Global spending on oil rose to $538 billion in 2023. The IEA questions if OPEC+ can keep expanding. China's slower growth and the switch to electric vehicles are key reasons for the demand drop. However, the IEA warns that even small changes could affect these forecasts. Quick Sizzles: - Fidelity’s ETF Power Play: Fidelity seals deals with ETF issuers to share up to 15% of revenues. Non-compliant issuers face $100 surcharges for investors. Rival Schwab watches closely. - Bank of Japan’s Rate Hold: Japan expected to maintain interest rates. Policymakers debate balance sheet reduction and progress toward 2% inflation goal. - OpenAI's Lobbying Surge: OpenAI expands lobbying team from 3 to 35. Aims to influence global AI legislation and ensure flexible future regulations. - Private Equity’s Tax Loophole: Private capital firms avoid taxes on $1tn in fees since 2000. Structured as capital gains, not income. UK and US politicians push to close the loophole. That's a wrap for today's Market Sizzle! You're currently a free subscriber to [Josh Belanger](. For the full experience, [upgrade your subscription.]( [Upgrade to paid](   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Josh Belanger 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()