Postcards: Punxsutawney Paul Strikes Again

It's just another day in a world where liquidity is rising and markets are shrugging off the inflation narrative ... again. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Punxsutawney Paul Strikes Again]( It's just another day in a world where liquidity is rising and markets are shrugging off the inflation narrative ... again. [Garrett {NAME}]( May 15   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: The CPI number showed some underlying issues around services, but the markets were just happy that the odds of two rate cuts in 2024 didn’t fall to zero. This has pushed gold, Bitcoin, and copper to nosebleed levels while the rest of the market plays catchup. --------------------------------------------------------------- Dear Fellow Expat: Let’s get to the five things on my mind today… Trying to make a play… on Comstock with Jerry Jones No. 1: Punxsutawney Paul Krugman Rides Again Punxsutawney Paul Krugman is back again with more magical thinking about inflation. In another New York Times letter that the newspaper gives away for free to other outlets, he makes this inflation argument that simply makes no sense. Here’s his statement… Since the eve of the pandemic, the [Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices]( has risen 19.6 percent in the United States and 19.8 percent in the euro area. This suggests that pandemic-related disruptions, rather than national policies, were inflation’s main driver. Well, obviously, that settles it, right!? No. Aside from the fact that [the real cost of living]( is up massively since 2017… First, Milton Friedman argued that inflation everywhere is always a monetary phenomenon. We increased the monetary base by 41% in four years while raising interest rates. Total inflation (at least government-measured) is at 19.6%. In fact, since the onset of Bidenomics - we haven’t had a single month since prices fell. If we cut rates… anytime in 2024… don’t be shocked to see inflation rise again. There’s still a lot of money sloshing around. Krugman’s already made a fool of himself this year by claiming victory over inflation after he pulled out energy, housing, and food from the inflation reading and beat his chest. As media outlets mocked, prices weren’t going up if you don’t count everything that Americans buy. I propose a very simple question. If all of these problems were based on supply chains… why hasn’t the government done anything to actually improve the supply chains? Why aren’t we cutting red tape? Why aren’t we reforming things - instead of saying that every new project must do a financial analysis based on equity and other mandates that make very little sense other than to bureaucrats. [Executive Order 12866 is still in motion… 30 years later.]( You’d think that we’d want to prevent supply chain problems in the future, but the only solution was to hand semiconductor companies a blank check without considering that our roads are still a mess, we lack enough pipelines, the Jones Act is still in existence, and plenty of other problems persist, like a lack of truck drivers. It’s unbelievable that no one will address the supply side because of politics. No. 2: The Electric Centipede Rides Again Only a few months ago, we released a report called The Hedge of Tomorrow. In it, we explained the basis of monetary inflation and the persistence of a government that just keeps borrowing and spending money. There have been hiccups concerning market liquidity (April’s tax season was a prime example), but after this recent CPI figure - we’re right back where we started. Gold is now at all-time highs near $2,400, and Bitcoin just breached $65,000 again. I expect these trends to continue well into 2025. From there, that’s where we could see this cycle break as we move back toward a trough in the liquidity cycle. Be sure to download the report we made available back in February. [You can get it here.]( No. 3: I’ll Bet Buffett Bought Occidental Stock Today There was some curious movement in Occidental Petroleum (OXY) stock today. The stock bottomed out hard after the International Energy Agency slashed demand for oil on the global markets. OXY bottomed out off its 200-day moving average at the same time that it hovers near oversold territory on the momentum indicators—Relative Strength Index and Money Flow Index. OXY price chart - Daily, Finviz Buffett has previously bought down at oversold levels in the last two years, and it was a very nice move off that 200-day moving average. We’ll have to look at the Form 4 documents that will come out in the next 24 to 48 hours. [You can do so with me over at Republic Insider.]( We’ll see… No 4: Another Reason Charger Stations are Screwed Goldman Sachs (GS) warned that copper is having its “cocoa” moment. That’s concern that shortages and high demand could send the prices into parabolic territory. Well… [we are subsidizing a lot of copper demand]( this massive charger network that Pete Buttigieg wants to build. But there lies the problem. It might not be political will that creates the biggest threat to the U.S. charger network. The real problem [could be copper thieves targeting]( charging stations to steal steel scrap metal, thanks to rising commodity prices. Be sure to make sure that your catalyst convertor is protected on your car. It gets dumber and worse when the currency's value continues to face pressure. No. 5: Jerry Jones Gets a Good Deal? Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones on Comstock Resources (CRK). This was the first sizeable purchase by insiders at the company in a long time, and Jones will receive 12.5 million additional shares in a private placement deal. The company will use the money to pay down bank debt linked to a $58.7 million purchase of 200,000 undeveloped acres in Texas. Jones now owns 67% of the company.  This is an interesting purchase because Comstock has VERY high short interest against it– a whopping 30.66% with 10 days to cover.  I’m rather unimpressed with CRK’s balance sheet. But Jones - the Majority Shareholder - and his team may know something. No one has touched this name, so we might see interest developments in the coming weeks. Maybe this becomes a squeeze candidate. Perhaps it’s time to call Roaring Kitty and give Jerry Jones some help. Maybe they can get the Cowboys a Quarterback who doesn’t lose in the First Round. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()