Postcards: Truckin', Got My Chips Cashed In

In 29 states, the "truck driver" is the top job. And now, the great climate gods are coming for these workers. Meanwhile, what the hell is going on in this sector. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Truckin', Got My Chips Cashed In]( In 29 states, the "truck driver" is the top job. And now, the great climate gods are coming for these workers. Meanwhile, what the hell is going on in this sector. [Garrett {NAME}]( May 3   [READ IN APP](   Market Update: We’re back in hopes of rate cuts and a surprise overreaction to the job news. This jobs report was a slingshot for Bitcoin, lifting us back above the 20-day moving average on the S&P 500. We’re back in the Green. Truckin', up to Buffalo Been thinkin', you got to mellow slow Grateful Dead Dear Fellow Expat: Tomorrow, I’m taking Amelia to the Baltimore Zoo. I haven’t been there in years. When I was Amelia’s age, I was in first grade - and I could not wait to go to that zoo. It was on my calendar. I counted down the days. I envisioned what would happen when I finally saw monkeys for the first time—the days seemed to feel like weeks as a kid. The night before, I couldn’t sleep. I was so… excited that I didn’t fall asleep until after midnight. Then… I woke up, and my mother noticed a bump on my face. Then another on my neck. And then my back. Chickenpox. I couldn’t go to school and thus couldn’t go to the zoo. I wouldn’t make it to a zoo for another 11 years. The first time I finally saw lemurs was in the summer of 1999. They were okay. Amelia, however, has a fascination with lemurs similar to mine as a kid. She watches a show called Kratt Brothers that goes into WAY too much detail about these animals. So, tomorrow, I’ll likely have my own personal tour guide to tell me everything about these little freaks from Madagascar. If you want to know anything about the lemurs, drop me a note below. Amelia can write a guest column. Now… let me get to something on my mind. Truckin I couldn’t help but notice fewer trucks heading north this spring. Typically, South Carolina is a mess on Interstate 95, which has only two lanes for a long stretch. Meanwhile, there’s usually a wall of traffic in Fredericksburg, Virginia, and around Richmond. Nothing. I was wondering if something was happening, and I was correct in my suspicions. There’s a continued shortage of drivers in the industry, and that’s not likely to abate any time soon. In 29 states, truck driving is the most popular job. In 2022, there were 3.54 million drivers, with an industry north of 8.4 million across the entire sector (support jobs, etc). Even though both numbers seem sizable, the United States faces a steep driver shortage. The Western Pacific Truck School says that the country is currently short 80,000 drivers to meet demand, and that figure will accelerate to 160,000 by 2030. Even though pay is in the six figures for many drivers, the challenges are accelerating. Costs continue to rise, insurance prices are worsening, and there are plenty of people who were happy being paid NOT to work during COVID who didn’t go back. I worked in a startup that aimed to accelerate grain movement. If a driver had a truck, they could find work—similar to Uber but for grain—in 2020. People were paid NOT to work, insurance prices exploded, and fewer people sought commercial licenses. And now - here comes the government. Everything in America touches a truck at some point, and politicians are eager to try to electrify the trucking sector. It’s not just the idea that we’d need 15,000 charging stations that cost about $100,000 each. And that’s not all. Get ready for some sticker shock. The Clean Freight Coalition predicts that a long-haul charging network will cost fuel retailers $57 billion upfront to start building. But if we’re talking about all medium and heavy-duty vehicles, we start moving up to $620 billion. Add it all up - across the entire industry, the total cost of electrifying America’s truck fleet hits… $1 TRILLION. The Environmental Protection Agency has created some very steep curtailment reductions in emissions. They want 30% of heavy trucks to be carbon neutral by 2032 and 40% of short-term cabs to have no emissions through 2032. Anyone with industry experience has said it’s impossible, but that won’t stop the Yale lawyers who know more than everyone else. The Truckload Carriers Association says that this ruling will cause more headaches for members. Independent operators—the people who own their trucks and haul loads via a broker—will bear the cost. A Class 8 diesel truck costs a little more than $175,000 on average. The electric truck: $400,000. It’s unclear if they’ll walk this back. But we do know something. Every new truck… every new station… every new cost. It won’t be laid solely at the feet of the industry. Those costs will be passed on in the form of higher shipping costs. Which brings… more inflation. [Upgrade to paid]( Investing in Trucking As I’ve noted, everything touches a truck. Last-mile remains a massive challenge but a lucrative opportunity in the years ahead. I’ve previously talked about Wabash National (WNC) and its specialized focus on biotech deliveries. If you recall, I have been very bullish on ocean shipping in the last few months, as highlighted by investments in Ardmore Shipping (ASC) and International Seaways (INSW) in our Model Portfolio. But I must note that the trucking industry has slumped over the last year. As a result, we’re seeing significant insider buying in the sector, with a possible bottom forming on the horizon for the near term. With Heartland Express (HTLD), executives have been catching falling knives with that company for the last 12 months, buying from $18 down to $10 now. Meanwhile, the CEO of JBHunt Transport Services (JBHT) also bought shares. It seems that the Biden administration plans to subsidize this electrification plan throughout the sector. Much like the CHIPS ACT, this becomes a reason to spend money and refinance debt. On Friday, a report was that the Federal Highway Administration approved $148 million in grants to improve air quality around ports by reducing the impact of idling trucks. This seems like it could affect JBHunt more than Heartland, which focuses on cross-continental trucking. This doesn’t mean that investors should run out and buy the stocks. But there is a very distinct way to trade them. Over at Republic Insider, we’re stalking these names with an extraordinary approach to tackling these names. We aim to trade these stocks using a specific plan with an 80% probability of success, a 20% return target, and an annualized return of 100%. In fact, we just made a similar trade today with Intel Corporation (INTC) after the company's CEO made a huge insider purchase. [If you haven’t had a chance to check out Republic Insider]( there’s a three-month free trial for members of Republic Risk. Sign up today for an annual subscription - at a 20% discount - and you’ll also get 90 days to test drive Republic Insider. [Get 20% off for 1 year]( Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()