Postcards: Boats, Bridges, Bars... and the Week Ahead

Pete says it won't be "quick, easy, or cheap." Spoken like a true bureaucrat. ͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­͏   ­ Forwarded this email? [Subscribe here]() for more You are a free subscriber to Postcards from the Florida Republic. To upgrade to paid and receive the daily Republic Risk Letter, [subscribe here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Postcards: Boats, Bridges, Bars... and the Week Ahead]( Pete says it won't be "quick, easy, or cheap." Spoken like a true bureaucrat. [Garrett {NAME}]( Mar 31   [READ IN APP](   Dear Fellow Expat: The Francis Scott Key Bridge won’t be “quick, easy, or cheap” to replace. Those are Pete Buttigieg’s words. To that… I say… “Of course not.” Every politician in Maryland has their hand out right now. [China built a mega bridge in 43 hours with 8,000 workers](. And they did it for $1 billion. We can’t do that. You see, because of red tape, the U.S. government will likely have to commission a study on the bridge’s impact on diversity and equity. Do you think I’m kidding? I’m not. The Obama administration amended Executive Order 12866 from the original version under the Clinton administration. If significant Federal action and funding is involved… Executive Order 12866 requires federal agencies to review and assess the costs and benefits of significant regulatory actions to ensure that they are justified and harmonized with the principles outlined in the order. A "significant regulatory action" is defined in the order as any regulatory action that is likely to result in a rule that may: - Have an annual effect on the economy of $100 million or more or adversely affect in a material way the economy, a sector of the economy, productivity, competition, jobs, the environment, public health or safety, or State, local, or tribal governments or communities; - Create a serious inconsistency or otherwise interfere with an action taken or planned by another agency; - Materially alter the budgetary impact of entitlements, grants, user fees, or loan programs or the rights and obligations of recipients thereof; or - Raise novel legal or policy issues arising out of legal mandates, the President's priorities, or the principles outlined in the executive order. The bridge construction meets one of these criteria. So, a regulatory impact analysis will be required as part of the project's planning and approval process. It’s not just the environment. It’s everything under the sun. This analysis would include an assessment of the construction project's costs and benefits, including direct and indirect economic impacts, environmental effects, and potential impacts on public health and safety. So… red tape. Red tape. Red tape. The damn Brookings Institution will make a fortune doing a study about the impact of the bridge on [the local duck population](. It’s also the Chesapeake Bay. They protect that waterway like a pile of gold. This Isn’t Complicated I’ve long complained that our best minds in America became lawyers. Fifty years ago, one of my fraternity brothers (the smartest person I’ve ever met) would have taken his Northwestern engineering degree and designed skyscrapers. He makes a fortune as a lawyer. I placed out of AP Calculus as a junior in high school. I didn’t take another math class for 15 years. Let me try to help… The new Key Bridge should be “Cable-Stayed.” It’s about 1.6 miles or 2,575 meters. The main span needs to be 500 meters, with a height clearance of 70 meters for container ships. And the tower height needs to be 200 meters above the deck. This math saved the State of Maryland a month and $100 million. When you’re assessing bridges, your math is kilonewtons per square meter. Mathematically, these units are called Pascals. These are necessary to quantify three key load calculations: Dead, live, and wind. It’s too early on Easter to calculate the deal load (the weight of the bridge and supporting structures) for the bridge's main span at this time in the morning. But this is a static measurement. Live load is the variable one. That’s all the cars and trucks “beep beeping” on the bridge. Then, there’s the wind load. It's underrated. Maryland isn’t hit by many hurricanes, but a stiff Atlantic wind that’s constant can be a bear. These are horizontal weights… not the traditional vertical live load weight. Most people forget that a bridge isn’t just up and down. It needs to assess for horizontal wind speeds. That’s what down the Tacoma Narrows Bridge]( in 1940. That bridge was longer than what the new Key Bridge will be. From my recollection, I think you have to take whatever number you expect it to be… and then multiply it by 1.5x so that you overcompensate. There are also seismic loads, and Maryland does have earthquakes… although they’re rare. I guarantee they will increase the temperature load to “account for global warming,” as the expectation is that higher temperatures will lead to the expansion of the bridge. This is going to cost a fortune. I would anticipate that the government will also calculate for a ship crashing into it - as this happened. I’m just here to tell you you can’t plan for it. It was a freak accident. My estimate: It’s Maryland. Five years… $8 billion. And the most drawn-out ribbon-cutting ceremony in the history of time. Oh, and I’m willing to bet the government ends up hiring foreign bridge builders. And they won’t name the new one after Francis Scott Key. They’ll spend $2 million commissioning a study on whom to name it after. This is the one chance that the government can prove it works. [But we’re America](. The land of red tape. Monday, April 1, 2024 Event: April Fool’s Day Republic Speak: Don’t fall for Google’s annual prank. Also, be sure to watch Pardon The Interruption. They always sell April Fool’s Day better than any other media outlet. They’ll probably tell a story that Coach Cal is going to the Boston Celtics. I am releasing a pick tomorrow in the Republic Risk Letter. It’s not a prank. Tuesday, April 2, 2024 Event: My 43rd Birthday Republic Speak: Prime number birthdays… Ugh. [Born under punches](. A few Fed members are speaking that day, but I’ll be too easy hitting golf balls into the Gulf of Mexico. Wednesday, April 3, 2024 Event: 2024 Sohn Investment Conference, OPEC Policy Meeting Republic Speak: A great conference that attracts a lot of hedge fund managers. There will be a lot of people talking about their book. I advise staying far away from anyone talking up tech and listening to the people who see value in the energy supply chain. OPEC does meet on Wednesday. Look for a quick selloff on news that they aren’t changing policy. Buy the dip. Thursday, April 4, 2024 Event: Lamb Weston (LW) Earnings Republic Speak: Who is ready for an earnings report around meatballs? Yeah, there’s really not much happening on Thursday. Austan Goolsbee is talking, but you’re probably Googling his name in about 15 seconds. Friday, April 5, 2024 Event: March jobs report Republic Speak: This one is probably going to hurt. We start the second quarter this week, and I’m still feeling very uncertain on this round. Our signals are still positive, so we’ll wait this one out. But remember - no one ever got poor taking gains. I’m off to the water park with my daughter today. Skip the coffee and just listen to this live version of Parklife by Blur at Glastonbury. [This might be the most British thing]( I’ve ever seen. Stay positive, Garrett {NAME} Disclaimer Nothing in this email should be considered personalized financial advice. While we may answer your general customer questions, we are not licensed under securities laws to guide your investment situation. Do not consider any communication between you and Florida Republic employees as financial advice. Under company rules, editors and writers cannot recommend their positions. The communication in this letter is for information and educational purposes unless otherwise strictly worded as a recommendation. Model portfolios are tracked to showcase a variety of academic, fundamental, and technical tools, and insight is provided to help readers gain knowledge and experience. Readers should not trade if they cannot handle a loss and should not trade more than they can afford to lose. There are large amounts of risk in the equity markets. Consider consulting with a professional before making decisions with your money.   [Like]( [Comment]( [Restack](   © 2024 Garrett {NAME} 548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 [Unsubscribe]() [Get the app]( writing]()