Reality Versus Fantasy

What cuts across demographics... The top problem facing America... Reality versus fantasy... Uncle Sam's latest jobs report... The 'Fed pause' trade continues... Looking at gold, bitcoin, and oil... Inflation data and Fed meeting on tap... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] What cuts across demographics... The top problem facing America... Reality versus fantasy... Uncle Sam's latest jobs report... The 'Fed pause' trade continues... Looking at gold, bitcoin, and oil... Inflation data and Fed meeting on tap... --------------------------------------------------------------- They didn't call us, but we can agree... A national poll conducted last week asked more than 2,000 Americans – with the sample group weighted to match U.S. Census data about gender, age, race, and education – to name the most important problem facing the U.S. "Inflation" was the most frequent answer. Here we are... approaching four years on from the decisions that triggered 40-year-high inflation – the trillions of stimulus dollars pumped into the economy in response to the pandemic while interest rates were near zero. Now, concern about ever-rising prices is one thing all demographics share. Not only that, 56% of people interviewed by this CBS News/YouGov poll from December 6 to 8 said government spending is the biggest cause of inflation... and three-quarters said they felt their income is not keeping up with the rise in prices... despite what any "official" statistics might say. As CBS put it... Even amid stronger jobs reports and economists' talk of "soft landings," people say they still pay more attention to their own experiences than to macroeconomic measures – and an overwhelming number say their incomes aren't keeping pace. That's the reality that people feel. Then there's fantasy land... Uncle Sam's latest jobs report... I (Corey McLaughlin) wrote last week that we would be watching the release of last Friday's jobs report with interest. After all, the unemployment rate had been gradually ticking higher over the past few months... Remember, Wall Street has been increasingly betting that the labor market and economy is going to worsen so much more in the months ahead that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in early 2024. Well, on Friday, the Labor Department's reported unemployment rate for November actually fell, from 3.9% in October to 3.7%. "Nonfarm payrolls" increased by 199,000 last month and average hourly earnings were reported to gain 0.4% for the month and 4% year over year. At the same time, as [we reported last week]( the Fed's preferred inflation measures have kept easing, to an average of 0.2% monthly growth in each of the past five months. That's in line with the Fed's ballpark 2% annual goal and lower than reported wage growth. Again, this doesn't mean prices at your local store are going down for all the items you're interested in, or that people are getting generous raises to beat inflation... But it's how the government measures these things, so it shapes how Wall Street reacts. The 'Fed pause' and 'soft landing' reignited... Add it up and Wall Street's knee-jerk reaction was to kick the idea of Fed rate cuts down the road from March 2024 out to May, according to federal-funds futures data. The "Fed pause" (of interest rates) trade continues, which has historically been good for stocks. Bond yields climbed Friday after the jobs report and again today. The U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY") continued its recent trend higher from a late November low... The major U.S. stock indexes haven't taken off to the moon, but they haven't fallen significantly, either. The idea of a "soft landing" is back on the table. With more investors predicting a relatively stronger dollar for a longer period, the spot gold price has pulled back from its recent closing high above $2,000 per ounce last Monday. (On this point, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond shared [a technical analysis of where gold's price may go from here]( with his paid subscribers... The possible outcomes might surprise you.) Bitcoin, which is up more than 140% this year, even slid from its most recent high above $44,000 per token and is down roughly 7% in the past 24 hours. By the way, if what I just said about bitcoin's returns this year grabbed your attention, Stansberry Alliance members and existing Crypto Capital subscribers won't want to miss editor Eric Wade's latest weekly update. Eric shared what has been going on with the world's most popular cryptocurrency and key price levels to watch. Check it out [here](. But oil prices continue to fall, too... The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") crude oil – the U.S. benchmark – is down about 25% from its most recent high in late September, to around $71 today. Brent crude, the international benchmark, is down about 20% to $76 per barrel in the same period. I'm not going to lump a notable slide in oil prices in with strictly monetary policy's influence on dollar-denominated assets, though. It certainly plays a role – and lower oil (and gas) prices support the narrative of the pace of inflation cooling, as our colleague Whitney Tilson mentioned [in his free daily newsletter on Friday](. But also consider a few other influences... Uncertainty around global oil supply and demand has enough investors thinking about potential global oil oversupply in the months and year ahead. OPEC+ leaders are calling for more voluntary supply cuts from its member nations, though there's a healthy skepticism about whether they'll follow through. Plus, recent reports out of China about deflation in the world's second-largest economy – and China talking up potential stimulus efforts once again – could be another headwind to oil demand. The concern has spilled over to energy stocks... As DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou wrote to his subscribers today, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has been trending lower since October and is trading below its 200-day moving average (200-DMA), a technical measure of a long-term trend... Not only that, but Chris said what had been technical "support" levels, where buyers jump in to send prices higher, are now looking like "resistance," where sellers drive prices lower. As he wrote... In the chart below, you can see XLE trading above its 200-DMA in August and September. Then it punched below it in October, breaking the support level... Once XLE broke below its 200-DMA, the trend turned into a resistance level. And it has held for a month. Even more, we're seeing the 200-DMA start to fall lower. That tells us the trend is down... and is acting as a barrier to higher prices. Chris warned subscribers to avoid buying this popular oil fund for now and said energy stocks could still see "a sharper drop in the next month or two." Alliance members and DailyWealth Trader subscribers can read his full report [here](. Maybe there's a floor for oil. Maybe... The price of oil has gotten so low that the White House is finally buying barrels to refill the nation's depleted Strategic Petroleum Reserve... The reserve was drained by 40% amid the policy response after Russia invaded Ukraine in the spring of 2022. [A few months later, in October]( President Joe Biden said the U.S. government would buy WTI crude when prices are at or below a range of $67 to $72 per barrel to replenish this stockpile. Earlier this month, with oil prices higher than present levels, the U.S. Department of Energy said it planned to buy nearly 3 million barrels of oil at an average price of $79 per barrel or less. Now, Uncle Sam is (or should be) getting a better deal. So, oil prices might have a built-in floor... But don't let that obscure what the oil market might be signaling about a global economic slowdown. Heading into this week's Fed meeting... U.S. central bankers will discuss policy decisions tomorrow and Wednesday for the final time this year. The meeting follows a relatively "healthy" jobs report. So absent an unexpected major spike in consumer price index ("CPI") inflation data that will be published tomorrow, our bet is that the Fed will hold its benchmark lending rate steady between 5% and 5.25%. I'll have updates on the CPI data in tomorrow's edition and the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The latest producer price index ("PPI") figures will also go live on Wednesday. As always, the Fed's plans to be announced this week are likely already baked into the market. So the things to watch around its announcement will be about the future... which the Fed cannot predict, of course, yet enough people care about anyway. Investors will be hanging on the words of Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his post-announcement press conference. And this meeting marks one of the bank's quarterly exercises, where it publishes projected GDP, inflation, and unemployment data. When this happened last time in September, the market appeared to react strongly to the Fed's indication that it could hold rates "higher for longer." Stocks slid into October, while bond prices also fell and yields headed toward 5%. A few months later, there's more of an expectation that the Fed is closer to cutting rates than raising them further. We could see volatility if the Fed's projections include notable surprises again. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [What You Missed Last Week: Severe Crisis Warning – 'It's Already Begun']( Marc Chaikin helped build Wall Street. Joel Litman spent his career denouncing it. But they both agree about the ONE financial crisis that threatens your wealth more than anything else today... plus the EXACT step to take with your money to protect yourself and see 5x potential gains. Don't get blindsided – see what's coming and how you need to prepare immediately [right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Billionaires Now FLOODING Into Gold]( Ray Dalio, John Paulson, and many others all recommend you own gold right now. But did you know there's another huge investor (worth more than all the world's billionaires COMBINED) buying gold by the ton? That's why the best move to make right now could be this little-known gold investment (which you can get started with for just $5). [Click here for the No. 1 gold recommendation](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 12/8/23): ABB (ABBNY), D.R. Horton (DHI), Enstar (ESGR), iShares MSCI Spain Fund (EWP), Expedia (EXPE), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), ICON (ICLR), Ingersoll Rand (IR), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Lennar (LEN), London Stock Exchange Group (LNSTY), NVR (NVR), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), PulteGroup (PHM), Qualys (QLYS), Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology Fund (RSPT), SentinelOne (S), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Stellantis (STLA), Trane Technologies (TT), and Vanguard S&P 500 Fund (VOO). In today's mailbag, your thoughts about the "Magnificent Seven," which our colleague Dan Ferris wrote about [in Friday's Digest](... Do you have a comment or question? As always, send your notes to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Such concentration in such a small number of companies makes me smell a rat. Amazon clearly has monopoly power in the online sales business. Do the other companies have similar concentrations? Will these concentrations ultimately lead to Justice Department action to break up their concentrations? And then to more normal valuations?" – Subscriber Rod B. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland December 11, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,284.3% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,183.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 833.4% Extreme Value Ferris wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 771.1% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 641.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 526.0% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 452.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 405.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 390.0% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade PANW Palo Alto Networks 04/16/20 327.0% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,701.2% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,119.4% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,077.5% Crypto Capital Wade POLYX/USD Polymesh 05/19/20 1,067.5% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 864.0% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2023 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.