Mixed Signals

A lot of potential market movers this week... Revisiting long-term trends… Is the 'correction' over?... Mixed signals… What to make of moving averages… Don't panic, and stay patient… [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] A lot of potential market movers this week... Revisiting long-term trends… Is the 'correction' over?... Mixed signals… What to make of moving averages… Don't panic, and stay patient… --------------------------------------------------------------- This week marks another big one in the markets... As our Stansberry NewsWire editor Kevin Sanford detailed [in his morning commentary today]( be prepared for several days of potentially market-moving news this week... The next Federal Reserve policy announcement and press conference is Wednesday... The next major U.S. jobs report, which will include an updated unemployment rate, will come out Friday... Earnings season continues, with Apple (AAPL) notably reporting this week... And all that will arrive after the latest GDP and inflation estimates came out last week... They showed near 5% annualized growth for the U.S. economy and neither a substantial move up nor down in inflation, at least by the Fed's preferred "official" gauge. I (Corey McLaughlin) will have updates on what comes from this flood of news. In the meantime, including today, the U.S. markets continue to search for anything longer than a few days of consistent direction. About that long-term trend... We wrote to you in [last Tuesday's edition]( that the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 Index was flirting with its long-term trend, or its 200-day moving average (200-DMA), a simple technical measure. Since then, the S&P 500 has been below it every trading day. The mainstream financial media is now reporting on a technical "correction" of the S&P 500, down 10% from its previous highs in July. Yet, today, the benchmark index and the other major ones were up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the most, up about 1.6%. What gives? Is this it for the late summer and fall swoon U.S. stocks have endured? We can't say yea or nay for sure. If you ask the editors who are tracking the market's gyrations in our short-term trading publications, the answers are "maybe" and "stay patient for confirmation." What to make of moving averages... DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou gave subscribers a terrific update on Friday on his short-term market outlook, titled "[Looking Behind the Scenes of Today's Market Breakdown]( It included covering the recent price action in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index in the context of their technical trends like the 200-DMA and short-term 50-DMA. First, Chris explained why any of these moving averages matter to him. Remember, he uses a blend of technical and momentum indicators to analyze the markets and recommend trades. Before we get into any more detail, I want to share his brief summary... The moving averages are the trends. When they're moving higher or lower, assets often continue to move in the same direction. These widely followed moving averages often serve as important "support" and "resistance" levels. Support is a level at which folks tend to buy an asset and prices often stop falling. It's an obstacle for falling prices. Resistance is a level at which folks tend to sell an asset and prices often stop rising. It's an obstacle for rising prices. Either way, if an asset breaks through support or resistance, it will often continue in that same direction. A look at the S&P 500... To see this idea at work, Chris noted the S&P 500 crossing below its 200-DMA last week, after busting below its shorter-term 50-DMA in the summer, and why this is an important point for the markets... The broad market traded above both moving averages from March into August. Then, it lost support at the 50-DMA, and the short-term trend turned lower by mid-September. The slide continued into October while holding above the long-term trend. Now, it's trading below both moving averages. Take a look... There's no confusion on the short-term message here. The trend is down. And the index no longer has support. But Chris said there is another important feature of this chart to consider. Notice that the S&P 500's long-term trend line is still moving higher. As he wrote... Yes, the S&P 500 is below its 200-DMA. But that moving average hasn't rolled over yet. The rising 200-DMA tells us the overall trend hasn't failed. These are conflicting signals. And when it comes to what action we take based on these, we are defaulting to the direction of the 200-DMA. This is what our broad market system is based on. It uses the moving average to tune out the short-term noise. Regular readers may recall that Chris used this analysis back in May – after the S&P took a similar dip during the banking crisis in the spring. The longer-term trend for the U.S. benchmark index kept moving higher, offering a buying opportunity, he said. As we quoted Chris [in the May 23 Digest](... We've been in the "false rally" camp so far this year. But with the S&P 500 climbing the wall of worry, and our U.S. system flashing "buy," it's time to put those worries aside. The S&P 500 then made new highs into the summer, before the downturn the past three months. Chris isn't saying now marks another buying opportunity quite yet, but he cautions against panicking based on just one week of the S&P 500's trading behavior. It's a similar story with the Nasdaq... The tech-heavy Nasdaq is down roughly 10% since its most recent closing high on July 19, and as Chris wrote... You can see the short-term trend is heading lower as well... This gives us mixed signals similar to the S&P 500. There's no support level left based on the moving averages. But the 200-DMA is still rising. This tells us that the general trend is up for now. We'll keep a close eye on this in the coming days. If that trend is going to hold, we need to see a bottom in the next week or so. Otherwise, expect the 200-DMA to roll over as a broad drawdown takes place. The mixed signals make it hard to pin down what's next. So we're taking a "wait and see" approach for now. We'll likely know what to expect in the next week or two. As our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond similarly [wrote on Friday]( – and [reiterated today](... I'm waiting to see if the majority of stocks hold these lows before trading anything else. So, we'll continue to monitor how the indexes perform over the next week or so in this context. We'll also be following timely technical analysis that Chris and Greg provide their respective subscribers, given the key inflection point around several indexes' long-term trends that they see. The End of Globalization as We Know It In last week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan Ferris and I welcomed geopolitical strategist and critically acclaimed author Peter Zeihan back to the show for a discussion on the wars in Ukraine and Israel, his views on China, and more... [Click here]( to listen to this episode right now. For more free video content, [subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel](... and don't forget to follow us on [Facebook]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( and [X, the platform formerly known as Twitter](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: ['Slowly, Then All at Once... This Is How Trust in Government – And Your Life Savings – Disappears']( Porter Stansberry just returned after three years with a big warning about 2023's historic bond market meltdown... and what's coming next. [Click here for the details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- ['I Found the Answer to Retirement']( A subscriber from New York came forward with his unique story of how he retired early and worry-free WITHOUT stocks... thanks to ONE single idea that anyone can use. Now he sees 16%-plus annual returns with legal protections... and he NEVER has to worry about another market crash again. [Get the full story right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 10/27/23): None. In today's mailbag, feedback on [Dan's latest Friday essay](... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Dan: Bull Market or Bear Market. Recession, No Recession, Soft Landing, Hard Landing. Those are just words. Shortcuts to describe historical patterns and humans' predictions. "We are currently in a unique position. No, I don't want to say 'This time is different.' Every economic cycle and every market period is different. Sure, there are some similarities, but those similarities only go so far. "Parts of the economy are doing well, others not so. Some people have plenty of money to spend, others don't. "Some stocks have done very well and a whole lot of others have done terribly. "I think it is a mistake to currently lump everything together and give it a name. "There are lots of uncertainties. One thing certain is that the politicians will continue to spend and tax. But that is not new. "The world is not coming to an end. Some companies, and their stocks, will do well. Others won't. "'Prepare, don't predict.' "Thanks, Dan, for your insights." – Subscriber Bill H. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland October 30, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,199.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,036.5% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 781.5% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 584.5% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 577.4% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 488.1% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 445.5% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 379.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 298.1% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 295.6% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,416.9% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,079.6% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,058.7% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 802.7% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 783.8% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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