Narratives Come and Go, Prices Remain

It's time for another Federal Reserve meeting... Expectations and what to watch... GDP, inflation, and unemployment... Patience may pay... Podcast: Bullish momentum vs. bearish concerns... Mailbag: Your feedback on differing opinions... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] It's time for another Federal Reserve meeting... Expectations and what to watch... GDP, inflation, and unemployment... Patience may pay... Podcast: Bullish momentum vs. bearish concerns... Mailbag: Your feedback on differing opinions... --------------------------------------------------------------- Again, all eyes are back on the Federal Reserve... Tomorrow afternoon, the U.S. central bank will make its latest monetary-policy announcement from on high... about whether it will raise interest rates again or not, and what its plans might be for the rest of the year... And in a press conference that follows the policy announcement, we'll be treated to another likely long and winding road through the mind of Fed Chair/noted fly-by-the-stars sailor Jerome Powell, who's making his first notable public speech in several weeks... As Stansberry Research senior analyst Matt McCall wrote [in his Daily Insight newsletter yesterday]( the consensus expectation in the market is that the Fed will "pause" again. In other words, traders think it won't raise its benchmark federal-funds lending rate any higher from its current range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows that big-money fed-funds futures traders are 99% certain of this outcome. This expectation follows a bunch of data over the past month or so. As I (Corey McLaughlin) have reported on here, these figures have shown signs of a weakening jobs market and a generally slowing pace of inflation... though recent increases in oil and energy prices have also temporarily spoiled the "inflation is dying a slow death" story. Yet as Matt wrote... Even after both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reported hotter-than-expected inflation numbers [last week], the market remained unfazed. Most investors seem to think a pause is inevitable. The 'pause' may happen, but markets have been jittery lately... Volatility ticked up a bit today and all the major U.S. indexes were down. The benchmark S&P 500 was off about 0.2%... That's not a huge dip, but it closed trading below its 50-day moving average (50-DMA), a technical measure of a short-term trend, for a third straight day. This is notable in context to me because there's about 7% of value, or potential downside, between the S&P 500's current 50-DMA and its longer-term 200-day moving average (200-DMA). Both these levels are markers for a lot of algorithmic trading by Wall Street institutions and other traders. But let's also look at other measures of the market... like the equal-weighted S&P 500, which isn't slanted toward the index's biggest companies like Nvidia or Apple. Measured this way, the index is already much closer to its longer-term average... and has had much more subdued gains in 2023. Market breadth remains average, with roughly 50% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their long-term trends. Based on certain technical-trading principles (there are different approaches), the index can easily rise to its 50-DMA or fall to its 200-DMA without encountering resistance. So if most stocks are already close to their 200-DMAs, it means they have little downside potential before they encounter resistance (while the mega-caps that have seen big gains for nearly a year have more downside potential). We will keep an eye on whether more stocks do break below the long-term uptrend they've been in since October... But this indicator is promising for now. We will see... Whether we, or you, or your neighbor who knows absolutely nothing about the Fed likes it or not, tomorrow's Fed meeting will likely be a catalyst for market direction one way or another. That goes for stocks, and bonds, [and interest-rate expectations](... as well as the U.S. dollar, all of which have implications for each other. Higher rates strengthen the dollar. The dollar, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index ("DXY") is up 5%, a relatively large move, since July 14, and the S&P 500 is down about 3% since its most recent high around the same time in late July. That has continued a correlation of "dollar up, stocks down, and vice versa" that we've seen for about two years. Tomorrow, we may get a better idea of whether interest rates and the dollar are topping out – or not. As is often the case with these policy decisions, look past what is actually happening tomorrow. The market is largely expecting a "pause." In the event that doesn't happen, volatility is likely. There's always a chance that happens, but it's slim. What is more important to watch is what Powell deems important in his post-announcement press conference... and, probably even more essential, what the Fed members are thinking about expectations for the economy moving ahead. When the Fed predicts the future... Tomorrow marks one of the Fed's quarterly exercises in which it publishes updated projections about GDP, inflation, and unemployment. I'm actually interested in what they have to say about all three of these things. GDP growth projections for this quarter have skewed wildly higher lately to as much as 6% annualized... Higher oil prices, thanks to continued Saudi Arabian supply cuts and persistent global demand, have upset the lower-inflation story and may continue, as our DailyWealth Trader editor Chris Igou [suggested today](. And, [as I've written recently]( the unemployment rate in the U.S. is potentially showing early signs that the economy is either already in or headed toward an "official" recession. The most recent unemployment rate for August checked in at 3.8%, up from a recent low of 3.4% in April. An unemployment rate of 3.9% or higher for three straight months could meet the Sahm Rule – a marker of recession that shows unemployment rising by at least 50 basis points for a sustained period of time. Yes, people, a recession remains a possibility, though it might not ever be considered "official" if GDP growth remains as strong as current estimates suggest. At the last meeting, Powell cited Fed economists as saying a recession was unlikely. What Powell says on that prospect tomorrow could be notable. It's not that what he says will be right... But it will be notable because enough folks in the market like to hang on to the words of central bankers. The good news: Narratives come and go, prices remain... Our Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond – who called way back in October, nearly a year ago, that stocks in the U.S. were bottoming – isn't all that concerned about any of this. As [he wrote today to his subscribers]( he's just being patient... I was surprised to see a big move down today ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow, but I'll use it to my advantage. For believers that stocks are in an uptrend, like Greg (and as we've also shared lately, our colleague Brett Eversole), today was actually an opportunity to think about adding to positions rather than fretting and getting more concerned. Maybe another Fed meeting is another brick in the proverbial "Wall of Worry." Greg suggested a few new bullish trades for subscribers... Yet he said he'll be watching market action closely after the Fed meeting to see if there's any reason for his thesis to change – and even then, he'll manage risk appropriately. Until tomorrow. Bullish Momentum vs. Bearish Concerns Greg also joined the Stansberry Investor Hour this week and shared his analysis of the market today. He's weighing bullish momentum versus bearish concerns... and whether 2024 will be a "trader's market"... [Click here]( to watch this video right now. For more free video content, [subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel](... and don't forget to follow us on [Facebook]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( and [X, the platform formerly known as Twitter](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [1907, 1929, 1998, 2007 – and Now 2023?]( The Washington economist who called the Lehman Brothers collapse says the exact same scenario that occurred in four of America's biggest economic calamities is unfolding again today. It all centers around an unregulated sector that could be on the verge of "blowing up" once again. [Critical details are posted here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Top Five AI Stocks to Buy in 2023]( Investors are getting very rich in AI stocks right now. And according to 50-year Wall Street veteran Marc Chaikin, there are FIVE AI companies Wall Street is buying hand over fist that need to be on your radar immediately. [Click here for the names and tickers](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 9/18/23): Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Cameco (CCJ), Alphabet (GOOGL), Liberty Energy (LBRT), Ryder System (R), Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U-U.TO), Global X Uranium Fund (URA), Sprott Uranium Miners Fund (URNM), and Energy Fuels (UUUU). In today's mailbag, feedback on [yesterday's Digest]( which focused on what to make of the different opinions of our editors and analysts... What say you? As always, send your comments and questions to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "As to the question from Diana S. regarding different opinions, you want differing opinions. If you want all the analysts to be in lock-step, then go to one of the major brokerage houses. I was with Dean Witter and Smith Barney for 10 years. I can tell you they care more about their pay and bonuses than your welfare. You want differing opinions. In 40 years in the business, I haven't found anyone who is always right. You want honest opinions – sometimes right, sometimes wrong. I respect the analysts at Stansberry. I don't trust the analysts at the majors." – Subscriber S.L.T. "Corey, I was sort of anticipating the question by Diana S. I will offer some thoughts from my personal perspective. I have a couple of friends who are both in the medical profession like me. They lost a ton in 2000. The market came back and they lost it all again in '08. The last time I talked to them they lost a lot in the COVID crash. They were hoping for another comeback but they were in a bad auto accident and took retirement so the dollar cost is more prohibitive today. "The investment environment is a lot different than it used to be. Passive investment today is simply not an option. You must be extremely diversified across different sectors today. I have some great holdings today (through Stansberry Research) but will not add to them unless they become much less expensive. Even the few picks that look good could plunge in a Melt Down. So have your stop losses in effect if needed. Also, everyone wants to pick the next Microsoft but it's a long shot in any environment so make this a small portion. Hope this helps." – Subscriber Paul T. "Thank you for allowing different viewpoints to be expressed. "The genius professor Thomas Sowell at 93 made it clear why people need to hear different viewpoints based on different facts and need to be challenged to think outside of their limited perspectives. He gets to that point around 20 minutes into [this interview]( – Subscriber H.L. "Corey, interesting piece of information. I will bet you that in the next few weeks, investors will see inflation recognized as more sticky AND a recognition Central Banks are going to feel more pressure to raise rates. Net? Both extremes of 'pickers' should find better prices for their bias. However, if correct, the odds for a hard landing (and impacts) are underrated. But, hey, it's September, isn't it?" – Stansberry Alliance member Bill B. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland September 19, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,198.3% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,034.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 887.8% Extreme Value Ferris wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 604.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 575.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 565.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 556.8% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 515.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 393.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 332.4% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,456.3% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,043.9% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,026.1% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 761.0% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 612.2% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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