Never Forget and Looking Ahead

Never forget 9/11... Looking at the markets... A concerning indicator... The gap between growth and income... What it says about the economy... What it could mean for stocks... Podcast: 'It pays to be an optimist'... Never forget... I (Corey McLaughlin) can't write another word in this Digest without acknowledging the significance of today's date. Obviously, […] [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Never forget 9/11... Looking at the markets... A concerning indicator... The gap between growth and income... What it says about the economy... What it could mean for stocks... Podcast: 'It pays to be an optimist'... --------------------------------------------------------------- Never forget... I (Corey McLaughlin) can't write another word in this Digest without acknowledging the significance of today's date. Obviously, we all know that the 9/11 terrorist attacks happened 22 years ago. I grew up outside New York City. And like so many others all over the country, I'll never forget what happened. Life changed during that morning in 2001 in ways that are still felt two-plus decades later. Thousands of innocent people lost their lives. And millions more watched the horror on TV. As we in the U.S. deal with a seemingly increasing number of challenges, conflicts, and crises these days, it's important to keep 9/11 in perspective. And I also find it appropriate and valuable to think of the brave, selfless acts of so many folks that day... The anniversary of the 9/11 attacks helps us remember who the real heroes are... As regular Digest readers know, [my grandfather was a former fire chief](. So on this day every year, I think of the firefighters who ran toward the destruction at the World Trade Center in lower Manhattan. My grandfather was already retired in 2001. But folks like him were just doing their job – as they do every day – with the intent of rescuing others... A total of 343 New York City firefighters died on September 11, 2001, as they tried to rescue innocent folks when the twin towers collapsed. And in the 22 years since then, 341 more firefighters or first responders have died from post-9/11-related illnesses. Exposure to the dust at ground zero has been linked to a heightened risk of cardiovascular disease. Respiratory disease and thousands of cancer diagnoses have been tied to the toxins released during the attacks. On this day, I also always think of Welles Crowther, an equities trader at Sandler O'Neill and Partners in New York. The so-called "Man in the Red Bandana" was credited with saving more than a dozen lives while running into and out of one of the World Trade Center towers multiple times. He died when it collapsed. He was 24. And I think of many others as well – most notably, the heroes aboard United Airlines Flight 93 who thwarted a third hijacked plane from possibly crashing into another symbol of America in Washington, D.C. (likely the Capitol building or White House). Unfortunately, I also think of the terrorists, the geopolitics, and the security breakdowns that led to such horrific attacks on U.S. soil. I think of the two decades of war in Iraq and Afghanistan that followed. And I hope that enough people learned lessons from all that, too. Never should anyone who sacrificed on 9/11, their family or friends, or anyone else be compelled to think what the heroes did that day was in vain. Now, let's roll on to an economic indicator worth tracking... There's no great way to transition into the markets after one of the most horrific events in the 247-year history of our nation. But I do have a few other things to talk about today... The first idea comes from our colleague Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig. Specifically, in his latest Retirement Trader advisory, [published last Friday]( Doc examined one of the most important economic indicators that he and his team watch... The issue focused on the difference between U.S. gross domestic product ("GDP") and gross domestic income ("GDI"). [We've spilled some ink here lately]( about fluctuating U.S. GDP and expectations for it moving ahead. But GDI is worth looking at, too... In short, this indicator puts numbers to the economic story we've been telling lately. Life for the everyday American consumer isn't great – even though the "official" data shows the pace of inflation declining and GDP growth accelerating. As Doc explained in Retirement Trader on Friday... For every dollar someone spends on a good or a service – such as a movie ticket, a new watch, or a haircut – another individual earns a dollar of income to deliver that good or service. GDP captures the spending side of these transactions. GDI captures the income side. In a perfect world, GDP and GDI would be the same. But we don't live in a perfect world... There is always some difference because these statistics are measured using different data sets and different sources. But the difference should be minimal, and it typically is. When we see a large gap between GDP and GDI, it can be a warning sign for the economy. And the gap is large right now... What should we make of this gap today? To me, it suggests that since early 2022 – the last time GDP and GDI were tracking together – the amount of income people, on balance, have been making compared with the amount they're spending has drastically declined. Again, it looks like [a U.S. consumer who isn't "resilient."]( Instead, he seems "resigned" to the current state of the cost of living. To that point, credit-card debt continues to climb to record levels. And the latest quarterly GDP estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's tracker is at 5.6% annualized. As Doc explained, some studies have shown that when estimates of GDP and GDI differ in a notable way, the true number is closer to the average between the two. As Doc wrote... This means today's GDP estimates might be overly optimistic... and America's true economic output might be lower than folks think. This possibility paints a slightly bleaker outlook for our economy. We're still optimistic, but it's something we're keeping an eye on. Flat or declining "real" income while the economy is allegedly growing at an almost 6% clip is significant... For one thing, it can't last without everyday people suffering. And in that case, if spending were to slow significantly or debts were to go unpaid, it would result in a major economic slowdown. And it would put delinquent loans on a path higher. This is yet another reason to watch the unemployment rate, too... If it continues to move higher, it will show an economy in which fewer and fewer people who want to work are able to find jobs. Meanwhile, these same folks will need cash more than ever before. And yet, reported strong headline economic growth – as measured by GDP and inflation (if energy- and food-price growth keeps accelerating) – could also spur the Fed to keep monetary policy tight, where it is now. If they consider the economy too "hot," they could also hike rates more. What's next? Now, the better news is that this scenario doesn't have to be bad for stocks over the long run. And perhaps more importantly, it serves as a reminder of why we want to own stocks of high-quality businesses in the first place... Let's not forget that the major U.S. indexes sold off around 20% to 30% – with many individual stocks down much more – last year on the expectation of the Fed's rate hikes and the anticipation of what they could do to the economy. Expectations became very low. And since October 2022, the stock market has been climbing a proverbial "wall of worry" – which is typically a sign of a bull market. Is this gap between income and "growth" another thing that can be overcome? Yes and no, depending on the timeline... If the unemployment rate rises in a world where people's incomes haven't kept pace with economic growth for more than a year, it won't be a great economy or a happy U.S. While the folks at the Fed will never say it out loud, this is essentially what they want – specifically, just enough of a slowdown to put the story of 40-year-high inflation behind them for good. Whether it happens in a neat fashion is another matter. It's wise to be prepared for a mess. And we should take great care to own shares of good companies that sell in-demand products or services, no matter what comes next for the economy. If it all blows up spectacularly in a recession, stocks are likely to take an associated hit. Of course, at that point, I'm willing to bet the Fed will step in, cry "Uncle," and cut interest rates – which could boost stock prices. If your head's spinning thinking about all this... I suggest you check out what two of our top analysts are saying about the markets today. Stansberry Research senior analysts Brett Eversole and Matt McCall decided to get together to share their takes on the market. And I expect them to cover how they see these uncertainties in the economy playing out over the next several months and into next year. Without giving too much away, I can tell you that Brett and Matt are both bullish right now. And in particular, they both believe they've found the next group of stocks poised to rally. If you want to hear why, they're sharing a new message that goes live tomorrow night... It's a 100% free presentation. So if you've been confused or uncertain about what to do in today's market... if you want to know if it's worth buying into or better to stay away from... this conversation is worth your time. [Click here to register for tomorrow's big event now](. The action starts roughly 24 hours from now. And you don't want to miss a minute. 'It Pays to Be An Optimist' Our colleague Brett Eversole joined Stansberry Research senior analyst Matt McCall for the latest episode of the Making Money podcast. The two of them talked about what they believe is coming next for the market and why they're both optimistic... [Click here]( to watch this video right now. For more free video content, [subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel](... and don't forget to follow us on [Facebook]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( and [X, the platform formerly known as Twitter](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Tomorrow Will Change Everything]( If you missed the artificial-intelligence rally earlier this year, you can't overlook this new prediction about what happens NEXT to U.S. stocks. Two top experts say it could be a turning point for millions of Americans. But if you know what's coming, you could potentially make 10 times your money or more, 10 different times, without touching options or cryptos. Before tomorrow, [click here for the details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [His System Isolated Nvidia – Here's His NEXT Buy]( Marc Chaikin's stock-picking system isolated Nvidia before its massive bull run this year. Now, his system just flashed "BUY" on a new artificial-intelligence company that no one is talking about yet. It's not a household name... but Marc predicts it could quickly double or triple from here. [Click here for the name and ticker](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 9/8/23): Alphabet (GOOGL), Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Walmart (WMT). In today's mailbag, feedback on [Dan Ferris' latest Friday essay](. Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "At last, someone at Stansberry has stated that 'the emperor has no clothes' with regard to the economy: the interest rate is the most important price, not the [government] promoted disinformation of PCE, PPI, CPI, etc., etc. Who is going to be the first to say what may (but hopefully does not) occur – a worldwide interconnected debt-fueled depression? "No country has the funds to pay off the interest on their debts without inflating ala Argentina, which of course is broke anyway despite inflating like crazy for how long now?" – Subscriber Robert B. "Hey Dan, The AMC well-fed ducks (apes) have been fattened up for two years for the slaughter. The credit event will bring in tough times that could make the financial crisis of 2008 look like a cakewalk. Thanks for all of your warnings!" – Subscriber Larry N. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland September 11, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,208.0% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,051.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 894.6% Extreme Value Ferris wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 683.4% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 546.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 543.9% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 506.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 384.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 340.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel ALS-T Altius Minerals 02/16/09 301.6% Extreme Value Ferris Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 2 Extreme Value Ferris 2 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel/Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 1,572.4% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,043.9% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,027.8% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 766.0% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 589.5% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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