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A Time to Eye the Best 'Recession Proof' Stocks

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Thu, Mar 30, 2023 10:13 PM

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The game of consequences... Another key inflation reading arrives tomorrow... The only cure... A tim

The game of consequences... Another key inflation reading arrives tomorrow... The only cure... A time to eye 'recession proof' stocks... One likely winner and another bigger one... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] The game of consequences... Another key inflation reading arrives tomorrow... The only cure... A time to eye 'recession proof' stocks... One likely winner and another bigger one... --------------------------------------------------------------- If you thought we were done with high inflation... Think twice. That was the message from Stansberry Research senior analyst Mike DiBiase in [this month's issue of our flagship Stansberry's Investment Advisory newsletter](... The financial media carries on about how inflation is on its way down and will soon be back to the Fed's 2% target. Some even predict we'll see deflation (falling prices) later this year. They point out that inflation has fallen considerably from its peak last June. But recent inflation readings indicate the opposite... Indeed, as we mentioned here previously, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure – the core personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") price index – increased at last check, from 4.6% in December to 4.7% in January. And this inflation measure strips out "volatile" food and energy costs which, you know, make up a significant part of the average American's budget. Take those big expenses into account – which I (Corey McLaughlin) do since I eat and consume energy, and which the "headline" consumer price index ("CPI") does – and you'll get higher numbers. The CPI inflation rate decreased to 6.4% in January, but that's still uncomfortably high. And as Mike wrote... Over the past year, food costs are up 10%. Rent is up 9%. Energy costs are up 9%. And transportation costs are up 15%. That doesn't sound to us like inflation is abating. And even if inflation does slow significantly from today's pace, it will remain well above the Fed's 2% target and continue to devalue people's savings. This reality is central to why there's so much debate and obsession today about the Fed, which is playing what I have just now named the "Game of Consequences"... or manipulation of a $26 trillion economy. You can't bend one part of it without leading to knock-on effects somewhere else. But, hey, the future is someone else's problem, they say. So on it goes... At the moment, the Fed is still bent on crushing demand in the U.S. by pulling the biggest lever it has – raising interest rates – while still hoping for a "soft landing" of only modest unemployment increases and other economic consequences. That's easier said than done... The truth is, Mike wrote in the March issue of Stansberry's Investment Advisory, inflation is much harder to get rid of than most folks expect. He believes that Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman understood inflation best. And Friedman once compared curing inflation with kicking alcoholism... If you have ever known anybody who has gone on the wagon, you know that the bad effects come first and the good effects come later on. Similarly, when you go to stop inflation there is inevitably a short period of difficult adverse side effects. There is no way of stopping inflation that does not involve a temporary slow-down, a temporary increase in unemployment... If you are a sick man, it's going to be painful to be cured, but it can be even more painful if you don't get cured. Tomorrow, we will learn the latest core PCE number for February. That will be a key data point as the Fed continues to weigh interest-rate hikes without "breaking" more things in the banking system and U.S. economy. For now, the Fed is taking steps to curb inflation... It has pushed lending rates higher, faster throughout the economy for the first time in decades... And it may continue to raise its benchmark lending rate another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting in May. (Bond traders today have put the odds at 50-50 on that, versus holding rates steady.) And the Fed has also (mostly) stopped printing money. Our money supply had contracted about 2.2% from its post-pandemic peak to its most recent low, which was just before this month's rescue efforts amid the bank crisis. The run on Silicon Valley Bank and quick contagion fears that sprung up caused the central bank to pause its fight at least temporarily. Despite that, though, the Fed is still sticking with its plan to trim its balance sheet... But it still has a long way to go. The money supply remains 36% higher than it was before the pandemic. As Mike wrote... Friedman explained inflation is caused by large, fast increases in the money supply. That's why today's bout with inflation is likely to be even tougher to kick. Following the pandemic, Congress authorized massive stimulus. And the Fed went on a historic money-printing bender. The combination grew our money supply bigger and faster than ever before. That's why the only way inflation is going to get back to the Fed's 2% goal is with a prolonged, painful recession. And it will start this year. Fortunately, you can protect your portfolio – and even profit – should a recession arrive. In this month's Investment Advisory, Mike and fellow senior analyst Bryan Beach shared the details... Certain businesses tend to not only hold up in a recession, but thrive... In the past three recessions, for example – the quick one in 2020 before all the stimulus hit the economy, the great financial crisis recession from 2007 to 2009, and the recession that followed the dot-com bust in 2001 to 2002 – one of the market's best-performing sectors was "consumer staples." This sector focuses on companies making or selling things that millions of Americans feel they can't live without. Things like food or diapers. The essentials. These names are often lumped together in exchange-traded funds ("ETFs") that track the sector, like the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), for example. But Stansberry's Investment Advisory didn't just suggest you buy any old consumer-staples ETF or individual stock, for that matter. In the past three recessions, while consumer-staples stocks outperformed the market, they still fell... just less than other sectors. And as Mike and Bryan wrote... We want to do better than that. So we next looked for the stocks that performed best within the consumer staples sector... That winner was retail giant Walmart (WMT). Its stock rose 7% on average across those three recessions. Take a look... That's massive outperformance versus the market. And we expect Walmart to outperform in the next recession, too. There's another company that the Investment Advisory team believes has even better odds of outperforming the market and the overall consumer staples sector this time around. It's growing faster than Walmart and is more profitable. In fairness to paying subscribers, I can't share the name or ticker, but here's the next best thing... A chance to learn and get started... First off, Stansberry Alliance members and existing Investment Advisory subscribers can find all the details [right here](... And if you don't yet subscribe but want to get a better sense of the great work done by Mike, Bryan, and the rest of their team, now is the perfect time. In this month's Stansberry's Investment Advisory issue, Mike and Bryan run through the sorry state of the American consumer today, how debt is piling up, and what the inevitable burst in a recession will look like. Then, they get into this month's stock pick and explain just why it's a great buy now. You'll learn about why this "fast-growing, capital-light retailer" hasn't had a single down year in sales in at least 35 years... why it has always thrived in tough economic times with sales actually accelerating while most companies see their earnings plummet... and why this stock is "cheap" today compared with the market in general. The issue also provides specific buy instructions and guidance on if or when to sell this investment, along with updates on existing Investment Advisory model portfolio positions and a helpful explanation on the recent growing interest in "0DTE options" trading. You'll come away better informed. How to make money in the long run... Each month, the Investment Advisory team publishes a comprehensive issue that shows you how to make money from the most influential forces affecting the market and the most promising emerging trends in the economy. Even amid the volatility and uncertainties of the past three years, they've found winners. For example, senior analyst Alan Gula recommended shares of an energy business back in the depths of 2020's pandemic lockdowns, saying it was due for a boom in the years ahead. That's exactly what played out... This past November, subscribers who followed his advice booked a 400%-plus gain. Today, for only $199, you can start receiving the monthly Stansberry's Investment Advisory issues, the complete model portfolio – including this month's new "recession proof" addition – and an archive of special reports, past issues, and additional training guides. Even better, sign up today and you can try Stansberry's Investment Advisory risk-free for 30 days. If you're not completely satisfied, simply contact us and you can receive your money back. If you're interested at all in a subscription, [click here]( for more information and get started today. The Banks Are Gasping for Air Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors and chairman of HIVE Blockchain Technologies, sat down recently with our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone... He says that while the situation we're in now "is very different than 2008," it still has its challenges. [Click here]( to watch this episode of The Daniela Cambone Show right now. And to catch all of the videos and podcasts from the Stansberry Research team, be sure to [visit our Stansberry Investor platform]( anytime. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Bank Collapse Warning You Can't Afford to Miss]( A powerful indicator just triggered that has only appeared a handful of times since 1950 – and every time, it has predicted the stock market's next move with a 100% success rate. One Wall Street insider sounded the alarm... and explained why ignoring this signal could spell disaster for your money in 2023. [Click here to tune in now (includes a free recommendation)](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [The No. 1 Gold Play for 2023]( Some of the richest men in the world are jumping into gold right now... because evidence suggests we could see MUCH HIGHER prices in the coming weeks. But if you're not taking advantage of a little-known way to invest for around $5 today, you're missing out. [Click here for full details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 3/29/23): Alamos Gold (AGI), Activision Blizzard (ATVI), CBOE Global Markets (CBOE), Copart (CPRT), Cintas (CTAS), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Novo Nordisk (NVO), Flutter Entertainment (PDYPY), and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond Fund (SGOV). In today's mailbag, more of your thoughts on the Federal Reserve's predicament... and feedback [on yesterday's Digest](... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "I totally agree with Dustin S. [in yesterday's mailbag]. The Fed is out of ammo. Powell is terrified now more than ever (since banks started to crash) that he will break something else. Some 200 other banks are in deep do-do. All the depositors have to hear is a rumor that a bank is having liquidity issues and a run on the bank will go like wildfire. "If Powell keeps raising interest rates he is playing with fire. If he doesn't, he risks lighting a fire under inflation and killing the economy. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. There is $5.1 trillion in money market funds now because mom and pop investors have NO faith in the Fed's ability to fix the mess they have created. "Inflation is still running at 6 percent plus. Money market funds are paying 3.6 percent. That means all those money market funds are losing over 2 percent of their value day in and day out. That is NOT sustainable. We need to get interest rates above the inflation rates and sustain them there for sufficient time to kill demand. "Yes, it's going to be painful but the ugly truth is it's better than long term Argentina style run away destruction of the U.S. economy." – Paid-up subscriber John M. "Corey, I tend to agree. I am of the mindset that the Fed will knuckle under. But I suspect that will lead to 'worse', as in Volker2 Worse. Speaking of patterns, we've entered a new one. The time between major corrections has shortened in a major way. It only takes a year or two for a major reversal, not 10, not 7, not 5. In fact, 2 seems more realistic. Chaikin says his 'new' signal is a 'near term' timeframe." – Stansberry Alliance member Bill B. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland March 30, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,013.1% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 871.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data 10/09/08 789.9% Extreme Value Ferris ETH/USD Ethereum 02/21/20 624.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 608.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 546.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 441.3% Retirement Millionaire Doc AFG American Financial 10/12/12 406.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ALS-T Altius Minerals 02/16/09 324.1% Extreme Value Ferris FSMEX Fidelity Sel Med 09/03/08 307.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst ETH/USD Ethereum 12/07/18 1,410.9% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,169.8% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,049.5% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 925.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 654.7% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You're receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2023 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [www.stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.

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