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Panic in the Valley, on Wall Street, and Beyond

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A good old-fashioned bank run... Silicon Valley Bank fails... The biggest American bank blowup since

A good old-fashioned bank run... Silicon Valley Bank fails... The biggest American bank blowup since 2008... What it means... How it happened... Taxpayers always pay... What to watch for next... It was a good old-fashioned community bank run... But this wasn't a case of Joe and Jane pleading for their cash at the local bank […] [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] A good old-fashioned bank run... Silicon Valley Bank fails... The biggest American bank blowup since 2008... What it means... How it happened... Taxpayers always pay... What to watch for next... --------------------------------------------------------------- It was a good old-fashioned community bank run... But this wasn't a case of Joe and Jane pleading for their cash at the local bank on Main Street like in the famous scene from the classic movie It's a Wonderful Life. Instead, picture a bunch of startup investors and venture capitalists scrambling by phone and Internet on Thursday to get their money out of the now-shuttered Silicon Valley Bank. Alison Greenberg, CEO of maternal-health startup Ruth Health, recounted her place in the story Friday on CNN. She said she spoke with a seed investor in her company on Thursday afternoon who recommended she take all of the company's money out of Silicon Valley Bank as quick as she could. Greenberg said... When we felt confident that this was going to be a crisis... We withdrew the money through transfers and wires as soon as possible... small amounts, big amounts, just to not set off an A.I. that might limit our withdrawals. This was not our only bank account, but we were able to remove the majority of the funds so that what was left when the website crashed was below the $250,000 FDIC insurance. Multiply her decisions by all the clients of Silicon Valley Bank, which had been the 16th-largest bank in the United States on Wednesday morning, and you get what we've seen over the past several days. Within about 48 hours, the bank went from being considered a backbone of startup financing in Silicon Valley... to being shut down by regulators by Friday. It's the largest bank failure since Washington Mutual's demise in 2008 amid the financial crisis... It may have felt like Silicon Valley Bank's failure happened overnight. The part that played out in public did, after all. But as I (Corey McLaughlin) will explain today, this story has been years and years in the making behind several sets of closed doors... The run on the bank was only the last part of the sequence. Well, it was almost the last part of the sequence – until Sunday night when the Federal Reserve, the Treasury Department, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ("FDIC") stepped in and guaranteed Silicon Valley Bank's customers would get all their money back... The same happened with New York-based Signature Bank, which seems to have gotten into a similar predicament as Silicon Valley Bank. The Fed, Treasury, and FDIC have created from nothing a $25 billion new lending program to "help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors." Those are short-term fixes that raise an entirely new set of questions about what comes next – and spark more fears in already jittery marketplace. What does it mean?... Last Thursday, I [briefly mentioned]( the market action in response to the breaking news about Silicon Valley Bank, and how regional bank stocks were tumbling and pulling the broader indexes down with them. The story quickly became a lot bigger, as we learned only over the next few hours. This morning, Joe Biden had to address it from the White House, professing that everything is OK... No one is short of opinions on the whole thing. After learning all I could about what happened at Silicon Valley Bank and what led to the events in the time available over the past few days, my take is that the story really boils down to three things that are relevant to most individual investors... 1. The Federal Reserve (and Congress) 2. Poor management decisions at Silicon Valley Bank (and others) 3. Fear We're never hesitant to criticize the Fed... The central bank's monetary policies – and Congress' trillions of dollars in stimulus in response to the pandemic – got the U.S. into a period of 40-year high inflation and interest rates taking off. This ultimately doomed Silicon Valley Bank, as we'll explain. But the Fed isn't the only entity to blame here... So are the people who (used to) run the now-closed regional bank in the "valley," where startups go to thrive or die before you ever hear about them... In brief, the folks managing Silicon Valley Bank made poor decisions that left them with less cash on hand than their customers collectively ultimately wanted to access this week. Last but not least, there's one other thing to blame... fear, specifically the fear of losing everything. That's really why bank runs happen. In the case of Silicon Valley Bank, $42 billion in deposits flowed out in a matter of hours. The first two parts of the story... The backdrop is the Fed (and Congress) trying to manipulate a $26 trillion economy. This is the "macro" part of the story... and one we talk about all the time for good reason. The Fed's policies over the past year raised its federal-funds rate from near zero to close to 4.75%. That's a kind of move people in the U.S. haven't seen in a while. The under-40 crowd in Silicon Valley has never seen this. Interest rates had been on a decades-long decline. Then last year, that long trend turned around amid 40-year high inflation and the Fed's intent to "cool the economy." We won't rehash the whole story, but this was the catalyst, the trigger point, for Silicon Valley Bank's failure... This leads us to the "micro" part of the story... The people running Silicon Valley Bank are to blame, too. One possibility is that they didn't believe a higher-rate environment was really coming. But that's hard to believe given that the bank's now-former CEO, Greg Becker, was on the board of directors of the San Francisco regional Fed bank. More likely, they handled it terribly when it arrived... failing to prevent panic among its customers, which accounted for nearly half of all U.S. venture-backed startups in 2021. Its website listed cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, and e-commerce company Shopify as clients. Silicon Valley Bank wasn't a retail bank, but a corporate one focused on the VC and startup community. Silicon Valley Bank had too much 'interest-rate risk'... In the stimulus-fueled boom of 2020 and 2021, business was great... And Silicon Valley Bank sought a spot to park cash from deposits. Given short-term Treasury yields were near zero, they decided on longer-term bonds that were yielding higher... They were "borrowing short to lend long." That's what banks do. As Bloomberg's Matt Levine explained it today... Simplistically, a bank might get its money from demand deposits, checking and savings accounts that customers can withdraw at any time. And the bank might pay, say, 0% interest on those deposits. And then it invests the money in some longer-term assets, loans and bonds that don't get paid back for years, and that pay, say, 2% interest. The bank earns 2% on its money, pays 0% to depositors for the money, and keeps the spread, the net interest margin, which is 2% in this example. Sometimes interest rates go up or down, though. Simplistically, short-term interest rates in the US are set by the Federal Reserve, which will raise interest rates to cool the economy if inflation is too high. This is a risk for a bank's borrow-short-to-lend-long business model. If the Fed suddenly raises short-term interest rates to, say, 3%, then you have to start paying 3% on your deposits. Meanwhile long-term interest rates have probably also gone up to, say, 5%, but you are still earning the old 2% on your loans and bonds, because they are long-term loans that don't get paid back for years. Your net interest margin is now negative 1%: You pay 3% on deposits and earn only 2% on loans and bonds. This is what happened with Silicon Valley Bank. The tech frenzy began to cool off in early 2021. Deposits to the bank from tech startups slowed down. By the end of the year, the Fed was signaling it would start raising interest rates to fight inflation. And throughout 2022 and into 2023, payments required on customers' bank deposits increased. The bond market had one of its worst performances in written history... and Silicon Valley Bank had $16 billion worth of unrealized losses on held-to-maturity Treasury securities that lost principal value from higher rates. The bank had, in fact, been insolvent for months leading up to last week. Banks always deal with interest-rate risk, though... And Silicon Valley Bank isn't the only one dealing with it today. In fact, as Levine pointed out, the bank probably could have eaten away at its losses, so long as customers kept their money in the bank... Its maturities were laddered, its deposit rates weren't going up that much, it did have a positive net interest margin even this quarter, it did have various ways to make money, and if people had just kept their money in, the bonds would have matured and been replaced by higher-earning bonds and SVB would have been fine. But more troubling and what probably most led to the bank run, though, was that Silicon Valley Bank tried to hide at least some of the trouble. This really goes back to 2015, when Becker, the CEO, began successfully lobbying U.S. officials for Silicon Valley Bank to escape so-called Fed stress-tests for banks. He suggested the central bank raise the asset-size threshold for banks requiring testing to above the $50 billion level Silicon Valley had just reached. In 2018, that level was raised to $250 billion, which was just above the bank's asset total a few days ago. All these years later, this regulation evasion ultimately helped lead to the news that the bank was selling shares to raise capital... and tech investors panicking en masse last week. But it was not the only thing. Without getting too far into the weeds, as interest rates started to go higher, Silicon Valley Bank did some [balance-sheet manipulation]( for as long as it could to hide the scope of its losses... The unrealized losses on held-to-maturity securities wouldn't flow onto their income statement. Some analysts [started to notice](. Eventually, though, the truth seemed to blindside many of those connected to Silicon Valley... On Wednesday, SVB Financial – the bank's parent company – announced it had sold $21 billion of securities from its portfolio at a loss of nearly $2 billion. Plus, it would sell $2.25 billion in new shares to strengthen its balance sheet. Yet in the "you can't make this up department," just before regulators closed the bank, it told investors in a mid-quarter update that it had $180 billion in liquidity... as if to say, "It's not so bad." A day later, the CEO told customers to "stay calm." Instead, shares of SVB Financial plummeted 60%. By Thursday, clients were rushing to take their money out of the bank. Many in the tech world turned on their bank. And the next day, the bank was closed for good. The money game... Finally, here is the "human" part of the story... the part that reminds us again that anything is possible... Everything we've talked about so far has played out over months, years, decades, or centuries, depending on how far back you want to consider the "start" of this story. You could probably argue a lot of different starting points. The last part of this tale, though, is what happened over the past five days, and what's making headlines now... It reminds me once again that the money game is mostly about fear and greed – and this story is about the former. According to sources who spoke to business publication Fast Company, the run on Silicon Valley Bank began on Thursday after a powerful Silicon Valley venture-capital firm – Peter Thiel's Founders Fund – began advising its portfolio companies to withdraw their money from the bank. Founders Fund amplified rumors that the bank didn't have enough cash on hand... This is money that businesses use to cover things like payroll or any number of expenses. A lot of these Silicon Valley or tech startups were already burning through more cash than they wanted to because of high inflation and a slowing economy. The tech industry has been dealing with massive layoffs. It has already been beaten down. That part of the economy is scared. It couldn't afford to lose access to its money if its bank ran into trouble. So according to Fast Company... Other VCs soon caught wind of the advisory and began advising their own portfolio companies to withdraw funds from SVB, the people said. As the withdrawals accelerated, the bank began taking steps to stem the tide and preserve its solvency – just like George Bailey did in the 1946 classic It's a Wonderful Life. SVB Financial Group CEO Greg Becker seemed to be reading from director Frank Capra's script when he uttered the fateful words "stay calm" during a Thursday conference call with customers, as fears over the bank's solvency grew. Those words probably only increased depositors' anxieties. And the withdrawals likely continued to snowball. "The whole thing was predicated on a few folks who put out calls to make withdrawals," Spencer Greene, a general partner at the venture fund TSVC, tells Fast Company. "I think the folks who made those calls weren't correct on the facts, but once the thing got going it was hard to stop." That "stay calm" was a real dagger. It reminded me of the Chinese government saying the same thing at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic... and, yes, George Bailey behind his bank's desk in that old black-and-white movie. What comes next?... Now, the Fed is doubling down on its manipulative activities by essentially bailing out Silicon Valley Bank. They say the relief is aimed only at customers – indeed, management has been fired already. But with this bailout, the Fed isn't exactly discouraging similar activities from other banks in the future. Fired management from Silicon Valley Bank will land jobs somewhere among friends. The Fed, Treasury, and FDIC also said Sunday night that "no losses will be borne by the taxpayer." Maybe not directly, but over the longer run, taxpayers always pay... The Treasury has committed $25 billion in a new bank-funding program through March 11, 2024. It's "coming up" with all this money from somewhere, no? So, think of the consequences of this event. In my mind, there are a few likelihoods... 1. The Fed pauses rate hikes earlier than it might have before. Just one week ago, Fed members were talking about how inflation was still too high. Now, they could be compelled to raise the fed-funds rate by only 25 basis points (as opposed to 50) at their next meeting next week, or even leave it alone. As of this afternoon, bond traders are now once again putting heavy odds on a 25-basis-point hike next Wednesday, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. And these traders also think a "terminal" rate of 5% is more of a sure thing. If the Fed doesn't hike again next week, that would be the start of the Fed "pause"... And it's one step closer to the eventual "pivot" from the central bank toward lower rates. 2. Inflation remains higher for longer. This was already a good possibility. But with weakness in the banking system showing up already – a year after just the start of interest-rate hikes last March, meaning more lag effects and debt-related surprises are likely still to come – the Fed might not have the ability to keep fighting inflation. If the Fed has to lower interest rates to protect banks, the pace of inflation could stick above the Fed's 2% goal in the name of financial stability for the whole system. Too bad for "we the people." Our dollars pay the biggest price, and the gap between the haves and have-nots continues to widen. 3. Bond prices and gold could go higher. If Silicon Valley Bank's failure marks the beginning of the end of this rate-hiking cycle, bond prices – which trade inversely to yields – could be due for a big move higher. So could gold, as higher-than-maybe-expected inflation becomes a reality and the dollar weakens. The 10-year yield has dropped roughly 0.5 percentage points in just three days. That's a huge move in the bond world. And gold is up more than 5% in the past three trading days. 4. Stocks remain volatile. I still can't get this history out of my mind... Every bear market since 1955 has only ended when the Fed starts cutting interest rates, not when it merely pauses rate increases. And this hasn't happened yet. Meanwhile, U.S. stocks aren't making new highs. The Fed could keep on with its hiking plans a bit more, and these bank failures could turn out like last year's brief U.K. "gilt" crises – also tied to a dramatic cut in the value of bonds. European officials applied a Band-Aid to the immediate issue of pension funding, then kept on raising rates. In the short term... In terms of what this means to the market's short-term direction, some big changes could be afoot. On Friday, amid the bank-failure news, the benchmark S&P 500 Index broke down through its longer-term 200-day moving average... That's a dangerous place to be... And bond yields are falling. We've said we've been watching for a "correlation" shift – meaning bond yields and stocks dropping together. So far, we might be getting it, but it's too hard to say definitively yet. While the financial sector took another beating today, the major U.S. indexes were either up (Nasdaq) or down slightly aside from the small-cap Russell 2000, which was off 1.7%. The S&P 500 has just barely avoided a dip below its most recent lows in January, though it's now flat for the year (and since July 2022). As our friend and Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond [wrote to his subscribers today](... So what comes next is how the past correlations of the last 12 to 18 months are either broken or not. And with inflation and the Fed meeting on deck, along with a fractured banking system, anything can happen. Today just marks the first day of the fallout from the biggest American bank failure since 2008. There will be plenty more to talk about... and consequences possibly to come. We'll have more on them tomorrow. CBDCs Could Be 'Greatest Evil' Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst for GoldSilver.com, tells our editor-at-large Daniela Cambone that proposed central bank digital currencies ("CBDCs") could be the greatest evil we've ever seen... [Click here]( to watch this video right now. For more free video content, [subscribe to our Stansberry Research YouTube channel](... and don't forget to follow us on [Facebook]( [Instagram]( [LinkedIn]( and [Twitter](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Major Contagion Warning]( ONE signal has correctly predicted eight out of the past eight recessions (100% accuracy). And it just lit up again. This means, on the heels of the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history, we could now be days away from a total market crash. Millions of Americans could lose their jobs... while huge masses lose their homes. Don't get blindsided as this economic contagion spreads. [Click here for our No. 1 defensive recommendation (expires at midnight tonight)](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Up 588% in Three Years – and a BUY Today]( No analysts at Stansberry Research are currently recommending this stock, but a widely followed name is speaking out about it in a big way. [Get the recommendation 100% free right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 3/10/23): None. In today's mailbag, thoughts on our friend and colleague Dan Ferris' Friday essay, [Dan's Saturday Masters Series essay]( and an on-the-ground report on the economy... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Re: 'Jerome Powell Talks Too Much,' Stansberry Digest, 3/10/23, do we really need a Fed to control interest rates in what we claim is a market-based capitalist system? If the market can set the price of widgets, why do we need a politburo to set the price of the one commodity which can be traded for all others – 'money'? "Wouldn't a market-driven interest rate and a rule tying money supply to GDP work equally well and less erratically?" – Paid-up subscriber George A. "How can a group of people with no oversight control our economy?? This is really stupid!! They are not responsible to anyone!?? Yet they attempt to control inflation, deflation and recession by manipulating the key factors affecting our entire economy!!!" – Paid-up subscriber Dwight G. "I believe Dan is spot on but left out half the problem. Even if the Fed was competent, it wouldn't matter as long as Congress and the president keep cranking up the printing presses. It's like attempting to put out the fire with gasoline." – Paid-up subscriber Bob D. "Thanks for this newsletter. A. You are so not a goof. B. You have consistently made me money. C. People don't always check out recommendations. "Thanks for being one of my go-to guys. As an Alliance member I get everything. I read most of it. Or at the very least I read what applies to my investing areas. Thanks for the Rick Rule video. My investing has changed as I see the markets changing. Moved to hard assets and T-bills." – Stansberry Alliance member Jeff S. "Dan at 61 is not old, he's younger than my kids! Enjoy some of the best parts of your life." – Paid-up subscriber Ray C. "Just letting you know that here in East Tennessee houses sell in a week even though they are overpriced, restaurants/stores are busy, & the roads are full of traffic! People going on spring break trips, have you tried to get a room in Florida? Good Luck. I don't see a slowdown and it's still hard to find people to get things done." – Paid-up subscriber W.W. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland March 13, 2023 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 894.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc ADP Automatic Data 10/09/08 769.1% Extreme Value Ferris MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 768.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter HSY Hershey 12/07/07 572.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 552.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ETH/USD Ethereum 02/21/20 515.6% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 438.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc AFG American Financial 10/12/12 412.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ALS-T Altius Minerals 02/16/09 321.1% Extreme Value Ferris FSMEX Fidelity Sel Med 09/03/08 302.9% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst ETH/USD Ethereum 12/07/18 1,211.4% Crypto Capital Wade ONE-USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,119.3% Crypto Capital Wade POLY/USD Polymath 05/19/20 1,046.9% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 908.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 437.8% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized investment advice. © 2023 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [www.stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.

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