Where Is the 'Economic Ball' Going?

U.S. stocks are moving higher again... There are still serious questions for the economy... It's an 'inflection point'... A priceless investment lesson... It's your last chance to join us in person this October... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] U.S. stocks are moving higher again... There are still serious questions for the economy... It's an 'inflection point'... A priceless investment lesson... It's your last chance to join us in person this October... --------------------------------------------------------------- U.S. stocks are moving higher again... This morning, the latest jobs market data showed more slowing, but not cratering. Initial weekly jobless claims ticked up to around 230,000, but that's still below the pace from June and July, and in line with an August plateau. That's on top of last week's jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate edging down ever so slightly for the first time in five months, to 4.2%. Meanwhile, another inflation read – the producer price index for August – came in about "normal" today. It showed 0.2% monthly growth, on pace for a 2% annualized rate. That follows a similar signal from the consumer price index [yesterday](. So the jobs market is weakening, but new inflation isn't out of control. For people in the real world, that doesn't mean prices for things still aren't 20% higher or more than they were just a few years ago. It means that Wall Street and economists believe that prices aren't accelerating by as much as in the pandemic era. One of the biggest string-pullers in the market backdrop – the Federal Reserve – is also assuredly about to lower interest rates next week to start juicing the economy... but not by too much, which would send too many investors fleeing into cash with fear. Fed-funds futures data shows traders are betting with 75% odds on a 25-basis-point cut coming out of next Tuesday and Wednesday's central bank meeting. In short, the past few days have supported the idea of "gradual" economic weakening, but not fire-sale-worthy trouble. And it's translating to higher stock prices. After a couple of months of volatility and "rotation" out of mega-cap tech stocks, the benchmark S&P 500 Index is suddenly moving higher again. It has now finished higher four days in a row, today by nearly 1%. And it's about 1% from its all-time closing high on July 16. In fact, all of the major U.S. indexes are trading above their longer-term, 200-day moving averages. Still, serious questions remain about the path ahead for the economy, as well as Fed rate cuts and what they may or may not mean for stocks... Where is the ball going? Sometimes, I (Corey McLaughlin) like to think of the U.S. economy as a $29 trillion "economic ball" floating in open water, with a waterfall on one end and a placid beach at the other. The ball is made up of rubber bands, complicated and impossible to unravel with one move. It can somehow float... so it will bob and drift as the tide naturally rises and falls and as not fully predictable storms move in and out of the area. It's hard to anticipate the exact path of the ball. But you can usually see whether it's headed more toward the waterfall than the safety of the beach. And if you care about its future (and what it means for your investments), you should consider the ball's likely next move. For example, all things considered, investors welcome a "gradual" start to a rate-cutting cycle rather than the alternative 50-point rate cut or more, which would likely coincide with indicators of more economic weakness than is expected right now. If that were the case, waves would be choppy, and the ball would likely head somewhere else. For now, things are happening mainly below the surface – out of mainstream attention, at least. It's an 'inflection point'... In [a must-read issue]( of his signature Retirement Millionaire newsletter published just yesterday, Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig gave an excellent lesson about how to think about where the economic ball is headed today – and what it might mean for the stock market. We've written plenty here about the jobs market, whether a recession is on the horizon, and the signals that suggest the answer is "yes." Doc described all of these ideas – and much more – in depth for subscribers as only he can. As he began... I won't sugarcoat it... Economic growth is slowing down. The go-go economic boom fueled by pandemic-stimulus spending and happy consumers is ending. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve knows this and is ready to goose monetary policy to attempt to avert disaster. Slowing economy, lower rates... The key question for investors is what this means for stocks. The answer: We don't know right now. We can't know. But we are at an inflection point... And we're going to share the secret of how to think about what's next. Doc went on to outline the state of the economy, including concerning major parts like consumer debt and housing, and the market behavior he has seen throughout his multidecade investing career in times like today. Then he explored how to think about "what happens next." A priceless investment lesson... Clearly, there are big questions about where the economy and markets are headed from here. So in his issue, Doc described the "final lesson in your investment education" with ideas from the famous, if not controversial, investor George Soros and economist John Maynard Keynes. The main point is "reflexivity" as a driver of market action – "the way people behave in markets – which affects the markets themselves." This isn't totally predictable, but there are indicators to watch to measure it. As Doc wrote... Like the markets, the economy is reflexive... If fears of unemployment leave people without job security, putting off purchases or vacations, the downturn could feed on itself. Or maybe they'll ramp up their purchases in response to falling inflation and interest rates. Similarly, if stocks start selling off, people can panic and sell off more stocks. It only takes a small spark to light a reflexive fire in the market. Doc's not saying stocks are going to crash tomorrow, but he does believe the market has reached an important inflection point. Various economic signals suggest caution is warranted, yet the S&P 500 is still trading near all-time highs. And we don't know how the market – made up of "thinking participants," as Soros put it – is going to react if things continue to take a turn for the worse. So what can you do? Simply put, control what you can. We've said this before... There are certain things you can bet on to continue – like more government "rescue" that will inevitably lead to more inflation and that the highest-quality businesses with consistently large free cash flow will continue to reward shareholders. Doc also explained why – and how – people should bolster their cash positions "now more than ever" and recommended investing in chaos-hedge investments like gold and other "hard assets." Of course, I can't give away the full details from Doc's issue out of fairness to paying subscribers and Stansberry Alliance members. If you are a subscriber or Alliance member, you can read it [here](. And if you aren't subscribed to Doc's Retirement Millionaire, you really should check it out. There's nothing else in our industry like it. Each month, Doc shares insights gleaned from his decades of professional experience as a former Goldman Sachs trader and then doctor before he eventually started writing for Stansberry Research. Subscribers to Retirement Millionaire get a new issue each month, complete with Doc's latest investment recommendations, current model portfolio, and health, travel, and personal finance tips you won’t find anywhere else. And, today, you can get started with a subscription for just $199. That’s a special 60% discount. [Click here for more details](. One more thing before we go today... You have just a few more days to grab in-person tickets to our 22nd annual Stansberry Conference, which will take place October 21 to 23 at the Aria Resort and Casino in Las Vegas. This is our biggest event of the year. Over three jam-packed days, the brightest minds in our industry will share exclusive investing ideas, and you'll listen to conversations and presentations from our Stansberry Research editors and guest speakers that you won't hear anywhere else. This year, our lineup of invited guests includes... - Bestselling author Michael Lewis (The Big Short, Moneyball, and The Blind Side) - Former Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, who is one of the main characters in Lewis' book, Moneyball - Former Texas Governor Rick Perry - Former CIA Chief of Disguise Jonna Mendez - Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Dave Barry - Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter Brody Mullins - Artificial-intelligence expert Zack Kass - Geopolitical strategist Marko Papic - Battle Bank President Frank Trotter - Stocktwits and Social Leverage founder Howard Lindzon You'll also hear ideas and talks from familiar names like Doc, our founder Porter Stansberry, Dan Ferris, Eric Wade, Greg Diamond, our friends Marc Chaikin and Joel Litman, and others. This is your last chance for in-person tickets... We know many events have gone "virtual" in the past few years, but there's still nothing like an in-person conference experience. I'm thinking of the casual or unplanned conversations you might have, or people or things you might see. For instance, I just found out that Dan will be jamming out on his guitar for attendees on Tuesday night during the event. You never know what's going to happen. I'll write about the conference in the Digest, but I certainly won't be able to cover everything. If you're interested in getting the full experience, in-person tickets are on sale until September 18. But hotel rooms are filling up fast. After September 18, you'll still be able to purchase access to our livestream, which will show the presentations from our speakers. But if you're interested in getting an in-person ticket, do so before it's too late. [Click here for more information](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [A 90-Day Financial Reset Could Soon Rock the U.S. Stock Market]( On September 19, the man CNBC's Jim Cramer said he would never bet against is issuing a dire warning. In short, he'll reveal the truth about what's really happening in the U.S. stock market... and how all the market forces we've seen so far in 2024 – AI, record-breaking volatility, the risk of a recession, and more – could trigger a dramatic reversal that may blindside investors. PLUS, he'll reveal the name and ticker of the absolute worst stock you could own right now. [Click here for details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Our No. 1 Stock for the Rare 'Millionaire Window' Opening NOW]( According to Wall Street legend Whitney Tilson, an extremely rare window in the markets is about to open. It's an often misunderstood market setup we've only seen 13 times since 1920. 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In today's mailbag, a subscriber's take on Nvidia shares – which we discussed in [yesterday's edition](... and one opinion on how to solve America's problems... As always, send your comments, questions, and observations to feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "RE: NVDA. [I've] been collecting weekly premium ($350-$450) selling cash-secured puts. Starting to get a lot more cautious since I did a deeper dive into the numbers. Since [June] 13, 2023, [Nvidia CEO] Mr. [Jensen] Huang has SOLD 5,339,372 shares with nary a buy in sight... Things that make you go HHMMMM! Aloha..."– Subscriber John M. "Tough times similar to the last depression is the only thing that will help America get back on track. Talk does not." – Subscriber Russell W. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland September 12, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,380.0% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,349.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 1,000.5% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 788.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 703.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 494.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 466.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc AFG American Financial 10/12/12 461.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 390.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 384.3% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,426.8% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,121.3% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 719.7% Crypto Capital Wade OPN OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem 02/21/23 279.3% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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