Set Your Alarm for Friday

What 'mixed' really means right now... 'Bad news' for the S&P 500, but not all stocks... Jobs data is coming... Set your alarm... Get your Stansberry Research conference tickets now... A Pulitzer Prize-winner on the Stansberry Investor Hour... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] What 'mixed' really means right now... 'Bad news' for the S&P 500, but not all stocks... Jobs data is coming... Set your alarm... Get your Stansberry Research conference tickets now... A Pulitzer Prize-winner on the Stansberry Investor Hour... --------------------------------------------------------------- Things appeared 'mixed' again today... The major U.S. indexes bounced around today, sometimes in positive territory, but mostly finishing lower. The benchmark S&P 500 Index, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index, and Russell 2000 Index were down slightly, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was nearly flat. The equal-weight S&P 500 index was just about even as well, as [we continue to see]( the other S&P 493 stocks outperform the "Magnificent Seven." This has been the story over the past few months. The Mag Seven – Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) – are down about 5% on an equally weighted basis since August 21, while the equal-weight S&P 500 is basically flat. Headline indexes are going to have a hard time moving higher if current trends continue. Remember, the S&P 500 that's quoted in mainstream financial news and your favorite investing app is market cap-weighted. So whatever happens with Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia, which make up nearly 20% of the index, has outsized influence. And right now, momentum is not in these stocks' favor. They last made significant highs in July. Apple broke below its 50-day moving average today... Microsoft yesterday fell below its 200-day moving average... and Nvidia is headed slightly "back to Earth" toward its longer-term moving average. After two years of incredible gains and sky-high valuations, a pullback is likely appropriate... especially as investor concerns grow about a possible recession, which may already be in progress. However... The 'bad news' isn't bad for all stocks... If you look past the popular tech names, there are stocks making new 52-week highs. Just check out our list at the bottom of every Digest, which shows new 52-week highs in open Stansberry Research recommendations. For example, yesterday, the consumer-staples sector of the S&P 500 hit a new high for the year. I saw an insurance stock and a maker of toothpaste on the new highs list. This is typical "defensive" behavior and supports our advice about owning high-quality stocks over the long run and buying them only at reasonable valuations. These companies may operate in not-so-flashy industries but sell always in-demand products or services. The best of them know how to generate the most free cash flow. These are the types of stocks that reward you with dividends and buybacks in the long run. After getting crushed starting in 2020 because of high inflation and then higher interest rates, Treasury bonds also seem to be acting as a ballast to stock risk again. As yields start to come down, bond prices are rising. And the yield curve looks like it's disinverting, a typical pre-recession sign. Meanwhile, gold is holding steady near all-time highs. Add it all up... and it looks like Mr. Market is getting concerned about what's to come in the months and year ahead as concerning economic data piles up and the Federal Reserve weighs interest-rate cuts ahead of the next key monthly jobs report – covering August – on Friday. That will be a big one with an updated unemployment rate. Last time around, the monthly jobs report – which covered July – showed a 4.3% unemployment rate and triggered the "Sahm rule," a measure of the change in the unemployment rate that has been a near-perfect recession indicator for decades. For clues about what's coming next... We'll be looking out for Uncle Sam's jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Friday. Set your alarm. If the unemployment rate rises for a fifth straight month, you will likely see frightening red graphics in the financial media and, perhaps, the major indexes down a bit. Alternatively, if it stays flat, or even declines, the results might ease fears in the short term. Based on other jobs data we've seen already for August, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate remains the same. Initial unemployment claims for the four weeks through August 24 were lower than they were throughout July. We'll also be paying attention to comments from two Fed officials on Friday, scheduled for just after the jobs report comes out. New York Fed President John Williams will give a keynote speech at 8:45 a.m. in New York City, just 15 minutes after the jobs report is published. And at 11 a.m., Fed Governor Chris Waller will give a talk titled "Economic Outlook" at an event at the University of Notre Dame. You might be asking why I'm giving you the schedule for Fed officials' public appearances on Friday. Well, it'll be the last time we'll hear from U.S. central bankers publicly until after their next policy meeting this month. You see, Fed members go into a standard pre-policy meeting "[external communications blackout]( period on Saturday. None of them will speak publicly about monetary policy again until Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference on September 18. So Friday's messaging will be critical for Wall Street's "Fed watchers" debating whether the central bank will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points this month... and what that might imply about the economy in general. Right now, the odds in the futures market are near even on either rate-cut size option. In short, Williams' and Waller's appearances after the jobs report are likely an intentional choice to send investors the latest thoughts from the Fed. Both are voting members of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC"). Not every Fed speaker you hear is. And you know who we won't be hearing from on Friday? Non-FOMC-voting Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari [appeared to single-handedly sink the market]( earlier this year by saying the Fed could keep raising rates. He cannot be trusted to carry the "right" message. This matters to investors paying close attention... Our friend Marc Chaikin, founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics and a decadeslong pioneer on Wall Street, often mentions how many Wall Street firms have algorithms that recommend trades based on Fed officials' words. Joel Litman, founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry and someone who has worked with plenty of Wall Street clients, has also mentioned in the past that he has tools that analyze Powell's words and voice inflection. All of this is a long way of saying that by the time Williams and Waller are done speaking on Friday, we should have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the Fed later this month – barring major surprises next week. My personal bet: Assuming little surprise in the jobs report on Friday, Williams and Waller will allude to the central bank doing a 25-basis-point cut at its September 17-18 meeting... and then suggest that more easing could come by the end of the year based on the "incoming data, and yada, yada." Either way, given the questions and uncertainty around the whole subject, I'd expect this week to end the same way it started: with volatility. Finally, you're running out of time to join us in person this October... Our 22nd annual Stansberry Conference is happening from October 21 to 23 at the Aria Resort and Casino in Las Vegas. It's our biggest event of the year... full of bright minds, top investing ideas, and interesting conversations. It's one of my favorite things to write about in the Digest each year. Our lineup of presenters this year includes... • Bestselling author Michael Lewis (The Big Short, Moneyball, and The Blind Side) • Former Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, who is one of the main characters in Lewis' book, Moneyball• Former Texas Governor Rick Perry • Former CIA Chief of Disguise Jonna Mendez • Pulitzer Prize-winning columnist Dave Barry • Bestselling author James Nestor • Artificial-intelligence expert Zack Kass • Stocktwits and Social Leverage founder Howard Lindzon You'll also hear top ideas from familiar names like Dr. David "Doc" Eifrig, Eric Wade, Dan Ferris, Greg Diamond, our friends Marc Chaikin and Joel Litman, and others. As I said, I'll be writing about this year's conference in the Digest, but I can't share everything from the jam-packed days. If you're interested in getting the full experience, tickets are on sale until September 18. But the conference is just six weeks away, and hotel rooms are filling up fast. After September 18, you'll still be able to purchase access to our livestream, which will show the presentations from our speakers. But being at our conference in person has its benefits. You'll be able to roam the halls of the Aria casino with your favorite Stansberry editors and analysts, along with our invited guests. And some of the best conversations happen in between the scheduled presentations. If you're interested in getting an in-person ticket before it's too late, [click here for more information](. On this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and I are joined by Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative reporter Brody Mullins, author of the new book The Wolves of K Street, about corporate interests and lobbying in Washington. Check it out... [Click here to watch the interview now](... And to hear the full audio version of this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, visit [InvestorHour.com]( or find the show wherever you listen to your podcasts. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Please Don't Scoff at Tomorrow's Warning]( An imminent "mini crash" could slam the market, according to the man who called the 2020 and 2022 crashes. Today is your last best chance to get positioned for a move that could wipe out all of your newest stock gains... or could help you double your money 10 different times if you know what's coming. [Get the full details here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [LAST CHANCE! Conference Tickets Close in Two Weeks]( In-person registration for our 2024 Stansberry Conference & Alliance Meeting will close on September 18. You don't want to miss being in Las Vegas to meet your favorite Stansberry editors and hear their top ideas and stocks for the next year. [Secure your seat right here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 9/3/24): AbbVie (ABBV), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Clorox (CLX), Direxion Daily Real Estate Bull 3X Shares (DRN), Coca-Cola (KO), Kenvue (KVUE), Altria (MO), Nuveen California Quality Municipal Income Fund (NAC), Pembina Pipeline (PBA), Procter & Gamble (PG), W.R. Berkley (WRB), and Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP). In today's mailbag, some more feedback on Dan Ferris' latest Friday essay about "[smart selling and dumb gambling](... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "[You wrote,] 'I don't feel bad about calling these investors-turned-gamblers the dumbest money around today... It's a moral failing.' [This] is true in more ways than you obviously meant, Dan! I can think of one so-called investor who took other people's money, put it in trusts for the people, borrowed from the trust funds, spent it, and with a gambler's straight face, says it will be paid back! I am talking about the biggest spender of other people's money, the U.S. government and their Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds. At least the investors-turned-gamblers are wasting their own money!" – Subscriber Larry N. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland September 4, 2024 Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,354.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,305.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 994.1% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 836.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 745.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 491.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 462.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 453.0% Retirement Millionaire Doc NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 393.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 382.7% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,430.0% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,112.3% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 725.4% Crypto Capital Wade OPN OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem 02/21/23 279.3% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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