The Election-Cycle Volatility Starts Now

In today's Masters Series, originally from the August 26 Weekly Market Outlook issue, Greg details how the upcoming election is overshadowing an impending wave of volatility... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Master Series] Editor's note: Don't get too emotional... Nothing whips investors into a frenzy like a presidential election. But Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond says letting the election outcome drive your investment decisions could cause you to miss out on a huge moneymaking opportunity. In today's Masters Series, originally from the August 26 Weekly Market Outlook issue, Greg details how the upcoming election is overshadowing an impending wave of volatility... --------------------------------------------------------------- The Election-Cycle Volatility Starts Now By Greg Diamond, editor, Ten Stock Trader What if I told you that the U.S. presidential election doesn't matter? That all the hype leading up to November 5, and the outcome itself, won't impact your investing success. This would shock (and likely upset) a lot of people... and that's understandable. Arguably, the country is more divided than it has been in decades. And emotions are running high... Former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on July 13 and President Joe Biden dropped out of the election eight days later. Who knows what else will happen between now and Election Day. I certainly don't know... at least not in the political realm. And that's largely because I don't have any political bias when it comes to trading... You must remove any bias you have about what could happen in politics. That's how you can be successful in uncertain times, including election cycles. Now, it's easy to let your emotions run wild... Many folks expect good or bad outcomes depending on their political party's wins or losses. But technical trading doesn't care about politics. As I often say, trading requires us to control our emotions and focus on our trading strategy... especially around big elections. For the past few weeks, [I've been stressing that volatility will increase in both directions](... I won't predict what's going to happen (or not happen) in the political arena. Instead, I want to outline what I'm seeing based on the two major components of our technical strategy... time and price. Let's jump into it... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: ['Aftershock of August 5' Could Be Imminent]( On September 9, an "aftershock" of the recent sell-off could cost you all of your recent gains. That's the newest prediction from Greg Diamond, the man who called the 2020 crash to the week and the 2022 crash a day before it unfolded. But if you know what's coming, you could double your money 10 different times – without buying a single stock. [Click here for the full details](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [The Fix Is in for 2024]( President Joe Biden's "fix" is in for 2024... and it might seal Kamala's victory – while causing more financial devastation for regular Americans than anything we've seen in half a century. Just like most financial crises, the rich are going to come out of this even richer, while everyone else gets left behind. [Get the facts for yourself here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- I recently mentioned that I'd provide a lot of Gann analysis, and that's what I'm doing today... I'll start by reviewing a long-term, four-year U.S. presidential cycle, which Gann discusses in his writings. Here's a chart of the S&P 500 Index with this cycle outlined in blue... I've shared these cycle forecasts before, and I'll repeat one important point... These forecasts are a guide for big market moves. They're not meant to capture the exact highs and lows of a cycle. For example, look at the high on July 16, 2024, marked with the black vertical line... The cycle was sloping down just a few days before that high. This cycle also didn't capture the exact low from the first week of August, but the cycle did start sloping up. That's why it's a guide for future market action rather than an indicator of daily moves. Right now, you can see a move lower as we navigate early September... This gives us an idea of what to expect in the short term. But of course, I never look at just one cycle, one indicator, or, in this case, one time factor, to determine a turning point, or what the market may do. Next, I'll outline a set of specific Gann time factors that don't come around very often. But when they do, they're quite powerful. The S&P 500 chart below speaks for itself... The gray bars at the top of this chart mark important Gann time factors... I've inserted the dates and arrows in red and green to pinpoint highs and lows. Remember, how a market trades into a time factor determines the probability of a high or a low. Again, this S&P 500 chart speaks loud and clear... The time factors above marked the high in late 2015, the high in early 2018, the higher low after the COVID-19 crash in April 2020, and a significant low in June 2022. The current time factor spans from August 30 into September 9. The fact that stocks have rallied into this time factor drastically increases the probability of a high in the market. When we combine the long-term, four-year U.S. presidential cycle (which is currently in a downward slope) with the short-term August/September Gann time factors, we have a powerful combination to trade from the short side of the market... likely into October. I haven't been this excited about a trading opportunity in a while, and this analysis shows you why... based on time and price. Of course, there are no guarantees in trading – just probabilities. (There's a risk of a cycle inversion – where an expected high turns out to be a low (or vice versa) – but this isn't likely right now.) The technical evidence shows a very high probability that a high is coming. We'll be able to trade that high, as well as the low that's likely to emerge heading into the election. So regardless of what happens in the Harris-Trump election, the volatility is starting now. As a result, we'll be trading a lot in the weeks and months ahead... from both sides of the market. Best, Greg Diamond, CMT --------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: This isn't the only election-related trend Greg is monitoring right now. He believes a massive market move will hit around September 9 – one that could upend the political landscape... Greg says this could open up the biggest moneymaking opportunity of 2024. 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