The Politics of the Situation

No signs of a repeat performance... Gold is at all-time highs... And the run could just be starting... A few catalysts for gold bulls... The politics of the situation... Inflation fuel from both sides... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] No signs of a repeat performance... Gold is at all-time highs... And the run could just be starting... A few catalysts for gold bulls... The politics of the situation... Inflation fuel from both sides... --------------------------------------------------------------- The streak stopped at eight... Today, the S&P 500 Index failed to make it nine trading days in a row in the green, which would have marked a stretch of positive days not seen since 2004. The benchmark index closed slightly lower, down 0.2%, as did most of the major U.S. indexes. However, the S&P 500 is still above its 50-day moving average and trading less than 2% from a new all-time high. The sight of stocks going up daily might feel good when you see it, but it only delays the inevitable down days, or even a correction. We just saw a drop of almost 10% in the S&P 500, followed by a rapid recovery over the past two weeks. There are no signs of today's action leading to a repeat performance – yet. The CBOE Volatility Index ("VIX") measured close to 16 today, near its longer-term average. As we said [yesterday]( after soaring to nearly 40 a few weeks ago, this suggests market fear has evaporated. But meanwhile, gold is at all-time highs... Gold has been building on its all-time highs set earlier in the year. The price of gold in dollars is now above $2,500 per ounce. That's more than 20% higher year to date, which is a few percentage points better than the S&P 500's gain during the same time frame. But this could be just the start of a longer leg higher for gold... This asset didn't make a new high for almost four years (August 2020 to March 2024) and is now breaking higher almost daily. Going back further, you can see what some analysts call a massive "base" or "consolidation" of its price from 2011 to 2020... I (Corey McLaughlin) am reminded of something my friend and technical analyst J.C. Parets of All Star Charts likes to say: "The bigger the base, the higher in space," referring to the potential future price of an asset. We're talking about breaking out from a decadelong "base." Gold has been trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for the past month and much of the past year. But price signals aren't the only thing we're seeing... There are at least three fundamental catalysts that support a bullish case for the centuries-old store of value... - The threat of escalating war in the Middle East and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Simply put, more developments in these wars could lead to further "shocks" for stocks and send investors into "safe haven" assets like gold or bonds. - It looks like the Federal Reserve is comfortable returning to "business as usual" and will lower interest rates. This isn't that long after the economy endured a 40-year-high rate of inflation (and still-rising prices). Cheaper dollars means rising prices for dollar-denominated assets... like gold. Other central banks are also buying gold as a way to hedge against the dollar... to the tune of more than 1,000 tonnes in each of the past two years. - Campaign promises from the U.S. presidential candidates to "fight" inflation. We've seen this story before... The proposed policies, in one way or another, will only exacerbate U.S. debt and inflation, and certainly won't get to the root of the problem: fiat currency and money printing. Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond told me today he's keeping an eye on possibly making some trades around gold closer to the election in November. Many of our editors have made the case for always having at least some gold in your portfolio as a "chaos" and/or inflation hedge. When storylines like these come together, it's easy to see why... Some kudos... The bullish gold trend may not be over, but it's a reminder that it can pay to be early. Earlier in the year, we shared notes in these pages from our colleagues Dan Ferris and Brett Eversole about gold-related recommendations. For example, we quoted a special report Brett published [in May]( when he joined legendary gold stock analyst John Doody in a presentation where they discussed why gold could soar soon – and why gold stocks were extremely undervalued. Brett wrote... Gold is in a raging bull market. But nobody seems to care... A few months ago, the metal finally topped $2,000 an ounce – a level it has struggled to break through for years. Gold has catapulted above $2,400 since then. All told, it has soared as much as 33% from its low last October. The crazy part is, retail investors aren't interested. But Brett noted that "insiders" – central banks – were buying gold at the fastest pace on record. Eventually, he argued, more folks would catch on and push gold's price even higher, perhaps as high as $4,000 per ounce... This situation will play out the way it always does... with the mom-and-pop crowd clamoring to buy only after savvy investors have made the easy money. And that means the current gold boom is only in its infancy... About those politics... We've (unfortunately) written plenty about major wars over the past two years... and regular readers are up to date on the Fed... So, let's explore the third point above, about the politics of the situation for gold and investing in general. This part of the financial discussion has developed recently because presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have finally gotten around to discussing their economic proposals in more detail over the past week. Reading through everything that they've said, we've come back to a familiar conclusion: There are equal-opportunity inflation concerns to go around... But first, a qualifier: Before you send any gripes (and feel free to write to feedback@stansberryresearch.com), this analysis is not a political statement other than to say whoever ends up in the White House will likely create more inflation, not less. Trump started things off earlier this month by arguing he should have more direct influence on Federal Reserve decisions. A president, any president, pulling the strings on monetary policy... What could possibly go wrong?! Practically, it won't happen without significant legislation passing Congress (which is unlikely), but it's the thought that counts. All things equal, Trump prefers to juice the economy with cheaper dollars, disregarding consequences like inflation. We saw that already while Trump was president. You can go take a look at his 100-plus Fed and Jerome Powell-related tweets from 2016 to 2020. Plus, there were the stimulus checks and debit cards during the pandemic that helped fuel 40-year-high inflation. The national debt grew by about $8 trillion during Trump's term as president with only about half coming from COVID-19 relief measures. The 2017 tax cuts, straight-up regular spending, and interest on the debt made up the rest. Meanwhile, Harris' solution for widespread inflation appears to be price caps on groceries. She has also suggested giving first-time homebuyers $25,000 in down-payment support and reviving the child-tax credit. Trump's vice president pick, J.D. Vance, also supports the child-tax credit. These measures would be widely welcomed by many, but they're also costly. So the question is: How will you pay for it? "The return on investment... It pays for itself," Harris told reporters on Sunday night after a campaign event in Pennsylvania. We haven't heard that vague claim before from a politician spending other people's money... We kid. Of course we have. Either politicians really don't know the problem or they still don't care... The federal government carries a $35 trillion debt – and is projected to pay nearly $900 billion in interest in 2024 – for a reason. Government investments, even good ones, clearly have a strong history of not paying for themselves. We all know who ends up with the bill: We the People, the Taxpayers. The nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that all the policies in Harris' plan would increase deficits by $1.7 trillion over a decade.Uncle Sam is already running trillion-dollar-plus deficits annually. The good news is... over the long run, history has shown it doesn't really matter much who is in the White House for stock market performance. If anything, the opposite outcome that folks might most expect often happens. We'll share details about that another day. For now, here's my vote: Protect your wealth. Nobody else is going to do it for you. Own shares of high-quality businesses and other inflation hedges. Gold looks like one great option right now. In this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, Dan and I are joined by Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds, formerly Ray Dalio's right-hand man at Bridgewater Associates, for a great discussion on macroeconomics and markets... We talked about why folks, particularly those with a short investing timeline, may want to reconsider the conventional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio... several alternative assets worth looking at today... and the likelihood of higher inflation in the years ahead... [Click here to watch the interview now](... And to hear the full audio version of this week's Stansberry Investor Hour, visit [InvestorHour.com]( or find the show wherever you listen to your podcasts. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [A 96-Year Phenomenon Set to Shock Market]( Marc Chaikin has called nearly every twist and turn in U.S. stocks since the COVID-19 crash in 2020. His latest prediction involves a 96-year phenomenon that routinely causes stocks to plummet dramatically as summer turns to fall. But – he warns – "there's a better way to navigate this situation than blindly selling your stocks." [Click here to learn more](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Our No. 1 Stock for the Rare 'Millionaire Window' Opening NOW]( According to Wall Street legend Whitney Tilson, an extremely rare window in the markets is about to open. It's an often-misunderstood market setup we've only seen 13 times since 1920. 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In today's mailbag, feedback on [yesterday's edition]( – which discussed the recent bull run stocks have been on since a mini panic earlier this month... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Good morning, Corey and company, A comment about the market movement over the last 8 days: The market is stuffed with OPM [other people's money] from passive investment, hedge funds, and overnight short-term lending. Algorithms place programmed orders to respond to multiple points of information that are sensitive to percent of the price... "There are patterns to all of it. But when I see 94% of the stock prices in my portfolios move in unison either up or down on a given day there are only two options: Anticipate the momentum of OPM and either get ahead of the next move or follow it for a smaller fraction of their profit percent... or ignore most of the daily noise and focus on the stocks that meet longer term needs of the mass of humanity. "I follow the second path as an outdated value investor who isn't pushed into the corner by signals I don't think I can comfortably use. But I do follow all of the information that Stansberry Research provides because of the wide perspective and approaches that are possible." – Subscriber Steve B. Corey McLaughlin comment: Cheers, Steve. It sounds like you have as much of this game figured out as is needed, though one point about your "outdated value investor" comment: As Dan just [wrote on Friday]( "value investing is never dead." All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland August 20, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,377.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,344.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 958.4% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 792.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 695.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 490.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 454.2% Retirement Millionaire Doc AFG American Financial 10/12/12 452.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 390.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 386.9% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,485.1% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,115.5% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 734.4% Crypto Capital Wade OPN OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem 02/21/23 279.3% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. 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