This 'National Distraction' Is Leading to a 'Slingshot' in Stocks

Today's Masters Series is adapted from the April 12 and July 22 issues of the free Chaikin PowerFeed daily e-letter. In it, Marc and Pete detail how the over-the-top election coverage is diverting you from a huge moneymaking opportunity that's quietly developing right now... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Master Series] Editor's note: Don't ignore this presidential election-year cycle... The mainstream media is focused on covering every aspect of this upcoming election. And many investors are unsure how this "national distraction" will impact the economy. That brings us to today's essay from Marc Chaikin and Pete Carmasino... Regular readers know Marc founded our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics. And Pete is the chief market strategist at the company. Today's Masters Series is adapted from the April 12 and July 22 issues of the free Chaikin PowerFeed daily e-letter. In it, Marc and Pete detail how the over-the-top election coverage is diverting you from a huge moneymaking opportunity that's quietly developing right now... --------------------------------------------------------------- This 'National Distraction' Is Leading to a 'Slingshot' in Stocks By Marc Chaikin and Pete Carmasino, Chaikin Analytics Folks, there's no question that the past month or so was dramatic... Election coverage dominated the news. The political horse race marched on. But then, the unthinkable happened... At a Republican rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, a young man climbed up onto the roof of a nearby building. And he managed to shoot at former President Donald Trump. The assassination attempt failed. But it was shocking. And it was terrible. One man in the crowd was killed and two others were wounded. But that hasn't been the focus here at Chaikin Analytics. The reason is simple... --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [96-Year Phenomenon Set to Shock the Market]( Marc Chaikin has called nearly every twist and turn in U.S. stocks since the COVID-19 crash in 2020. His latest prediction involves a 96-year phenomenon that routinely causes stocks to plummet dramatically as summer turns to fall. But – he warns – "there's a better way to navigate this situation than blindly selling your stocks." [Click here to learn more](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [MUST SEE: AI Gets Caught Attempting Illegal Insider Trade]( Buckle up. A popular artificial-intelligence "transformer" attempted to execute what it knew was an illegal insider trade, then lied to cover its tracks. The stock market is about to change in ways you may not believe. In fact, it already has... and it's time to protect yourself. [Click here for the full story](. --------------------------------------------------------------- Put simply, the markets brushed it off. And our general election-year thesis is still in place. Regular readers know that I (Marc) believe the market is still capable of a big move higher in 2024. That's true despite the 16% the S&P 500 Index has already climbed this year. Of course, the political coverage is gripping. And we understand why just about everyone is tuned in right now. But across our publications at Chaikin Analytics, we've previously told folks that it's a "national distraction." That's especially true for investors like us. As we said in the February 22 Chaikin PowerFeed... This is a critical moneymaking moment for the mainstream media and their advertisers. Keep in mind that 2023 was a terrible year for cable news... That means the networks will do everything they can to keep your eyes on their election coverage. In the wake of the assassination attempt on Trump, that's truer than ever. The political volatility is all over the news. And the media wants your eyes glued to that coverage. But we need to be paying attention to the volatility in the markets. Before pulling back in July, the S&P 500 had surged more than 4%. In fact, it outperformed the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index. Now, the bull market is starting to expand beyond the "Magnificent Seven" mega-cap stocks. That means the market is presenting investors with more interesting opportunities. We expect this trend to continue. Interest-rate cuts are finally on the horizon. The Federal Reserve has signaled that inflation is approaching its preferred target. This is great news for companies outside the Magnificent Seven. Put simply, smaller companies are often more sensitive to the cost of debt than the largest companies. That means lower interest rates can create a significant tailwind for the broad market. Cheap debt means easy growth. The political news is about as loud as it gets right now. And that will continue. The media wants your eyes focused on the election. But don't let that fool you... This is a big year in the market. And looking ahead, we're still optimistic for the rest of 2024. Taking it a step further, the good times typically last longer than the bad times... Fidelity Investments studied stock market data all the way back to 1872. According to the financial-management firm, we've had 26 bull markets and 26 bear markets over that span. The bear markets lasted an average of about 19 months. Meanwhile, the bull markets went on for an average of roughly 42 months. So based on 152 years of data, we know that bull markets typically go on for more than twice as long as bear markets. With that in mind, let's zoom in on election years... According to financial-services company Carson, stocks have typically risen 7.3% during election years since 1950. And they've gone higher an incredible 83.3% of the time. But we have a twist on this data. And it's even more "bullish" for folks like us. See if you can spot what we mean in the following chart from Carson... In short, election years are usually weaker at the start. Then, they rally later in the year. This trend goes back to 1950. So we're talking about almost 75 years' worth of data. Now, you'll also notice in the above chart that stocks pulled back slightly during summer. Again, we're just talking about the average results since 1950. With that said, it's not surprising that we've seen a bit of a slowdown in recent weeks... The S&P 500 has already exceeded the full-year average of 7.3%. So the bull-case scenario for this presidential-election year is even better than history suggests. That doesn't mean stocks will go straight up. Pullbacks happen. The S&P 500 just dipped more than 8% from its July 16 high through August 5 in response to recession fears. And yet, we could still see a huge move higher before the summer ends. We picked the summer for good reason. Again, it relates to the noise in an election year. In the best-case scenario, we could see what we call a "slingshot" move... If you've ever used a slingshot, you know that you need to pull it back and slightly downward to make it work properly. If you do, your object will fly a lot higher and farther. That's what we believe is happening with stocks right now. And as we've explained, they have room to run even higher through the end of this year. Good investing, Marc Chaikin and Pete Carmasino --------------------------------------------------------------- Editor's note: Marc has predicted nearly every twist and turn in U.S. stocks since the COVID-19 crash. Now, he's stepping forward to share his latest market prediction. He recently hosted an online presentation to reveal his strategy for the rest of 2024 – including how to capitalize on this ongoing market volatility. [Click here to get the full details](... 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