Pondering an 'Earthly Fire'

Time for some more tonic... An 'untouched' stock portfolio... The case study for long-term investing... Back to the global dumpster fire... Pondering an 'earthly fire'... A heads up for tomorrow... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Time for some more tonic... An 'untouched' stock portfolio... The case study for long-term investing... Back to the global dumpster fire... Pondering an 'earthly fire'... A heads up for tomorrow... --------------------------------------------------------------- Time for some more tonic... [Last week]( I (Corey McLaughlin) described how the world is on fire... and offered up a tonic. Since then, geopolitics remain smoldering... Wars in the Middle East and Ukraine appear to be escalating (again). Major elections in the U.K. and France are on tap – and could change the global calculus. And a U.S. presidential debate is happening on Thursday, where anything could happen. Any of these points might have you worried about your portfolio. But as we digest another day of concerning news stories (we'll get to those), I want to begin with another idea for an elixir to assuage fears about world politics... It comes courtesy of our colleague Whitney Tilson. Regular Stansberry Research readers know Whitney had his own hedge fund for years (and was described as "The Prophet" by CNBC for his foresight on investing angles). He's currently the lead editor of our flagship newsletter, Stansberry's Investment Advisory. Whitney recently shared a wonderful story about a portfolio that went "untouched" for the past several decades – despite potential future risks and times of sell-offs like the dot-com bust and financial crisis. Analyzing an 'untouched' stock portfolio... On [Friday]( in his free daily newsletter, Whitney shared a portfolio of six stocks purchased by his grandfather between 27 and 42 years ago. The portfolio was originally designed to earn enough money so that the interest and dividends would cover the ongoing costs of a family property in New Hampshire. As Whitney wrote... I'm one of three family members on the "finance committee," which is responsible for managing the account. About 25% is in cash (money-market and short-term bond funds, yielding around 5%) and 40% is in two index funds... but what's most interesting to me is the remaining 35%, which is invested in six stocks. And here's the cool thing: These were purchased (again, nobody can remember by whom – probably my late grandfather) between 27 and 42 years ago and there hasn't been a single trade since then. In other words, it's the ultimate "sit-on-your-ass investing" (to quote the late Charlie Munger) – not buying or selling a single share for decades. It's a fascinating case study... As we'll show, this case study of long-term investing illustrates the power of owning stocks and staying invested over time. As Whitney shared... To start, here's a table of the six stocks with the estimated purchase date and price, and their total and compounded annual performance [("CAGR")] since then: As you can see, the stocks are JPMorgan Chase (JPM), ExxonMobil (XOM), GSK (GSK), IBM (IBM), AT&T (T), and Pfizer (PFE). Two stocks have greatly outperformed the rest, but overall the portfolio has delivered over the long term. But Whitney wasn't finished with his analysis. He continued by adding in an estimated 3.3% per year in dividends – a feature of these stocks that played a major factor in why they were purchased. When he did this, the projected returns skyrocketed... Let's add the estimated dividend yield to the stock's annual return and re-recalculate the return from that: This blew my mind: by adding in the modest 3.3% average dividend, taking the average annual return from 5.9% to 9.1%, the average total return soared from 1,290% to 3,566%. Talk about the power of long-term compounding... Admittedly, the S&P 500 with (estimated) dividends added since the 1980s returned slightly higher (3,814%), but Whitney says that comparison ignores a key point about psychology and human emotions in the context of what the portfolio was designed for... Had my family owned the index, we would have had to sell an average of 3.3% of our holdings every year to generate the same income as the stock portfolio. That's easy enough, of course... but this would have introduced the opportunity to do something foolish like panic and sell during a time of turbulence. Not be a broken record, but the most important lesson here is that a powerful route to long-term wealth is to invest in a portfolio of blue-chip stocks (whether via an index fund or picked individually – that's what we at Stansberry Research are here to help you with) and then hold for the long run. Cheers to that. This is why I always say "know your goals" first, then make portfolio or trading decisions accordingly only after you've thought them through. The investing game can become a lot easier when you start there, no matter how you play as it goes along. Now, back to the global dumpster fire... Today, global news service Reuters and other outlets published articles about a missile attack by Ukraine on Sunday in the beach city of Sevastopol, part of the Crimea territory that Russia annexed in 2014... The Kremlin on Monday directly blamed the United States for an attack on Crimea with U.S.-supplied ATACMS [Army Tactical Missile System] missiles that killed at least four people and injured 151, and Moscow formally warned the U.S. ambassador that retaliation would follow... Russian state-run media claims four missiles, carrying cluster munitions and provided by the U.S., were shot down by missile defenses. Another missile exploded over the city, causing injuries and deaths... Russia summoned U.S. Ambassador Lynne Tracy to the foreign ministry where she faced accusations that Washington was "waging a hybrid war against Russia and has actually become a party to the conflict." The attack, Russia told Tracy, would "not go unpunished. Retaliatory measures will definitely follow." A major point is that the Joe Biden administration has told the Ukrainian military it doesn't want U.S. weapons used to hit Russian territory (except for some limited exceptions over the past month), but control of Crimea is disputed by Russia and Ukraine. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of current Russian President Vladimir Putin, said he hopes leaders in Washington and Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, will "burn in hell... not only in sacred fire, but even earlier – in earthly fire," according to translated comments on the social media app Telegram. Those aren't exactly heartening comments to see and hear. As of our press time today, U.S. and Ukrainian officials have yet to publicly respond to the claims, though a spokesperson for the White House National Security Council told the BBC: "Ukraine makes its own targeting decisions and conducts its own military operations." The incident came a day after three people were killed and 52 were injured in a Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv that damaged a five-story residential building... and after months of attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that have led to rolling blackouts. The war in Ukraine isn't de-escalating by any stretch. Neither is the one in the Middle East. And we haven't even touched on the third possible hotspot in the South China Sea in a while. As I said last week, war is inherently inflationary, no matter what side of it you are on – and potentially panic-inducing to markets and brutal for those directly involved. Elsewhere, banks are on notice... Buried in the news on Friday were a few warnings sent by the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation ("FDIC") to four of America's eight largest banks after reviewing their "resolution plans" in the event of bankruptcy, financial distress, or failure. The Fed and FDIC said they identified "weaknesses" in the "living wills" – another term for these plans – of Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and JPMorgan Chase. They also named "shortcomings" about the derivatives portfolios of each of the banks. A report released jointly by the Fed and FDIC didn't provide much detail beyond that, although the agencies appeared to suggest that business in foreign countries was one of the issues. Citi appeared to be the worst offender. The Fed and FDIC said Citi "lacks the capability to incorporate updated stress scenarios and assumptions," which "contributed to materially inaccurate calculations" of the capital and liquidity it would need for an orderly wind-down of its derivatives portfolio. Just capital and liquidity. Nothing important, eh? The Fed and FDIC want the four banks to update their "living wills" accordingly by the next time they're reviewed in July 2025. Ending on a good note... Bank of New York Mellon (BK), Morgan Stanley (MS), State Street (STT), and Wells Fargo (WFC) didn't have any "shortcomings" like the others. Finally, a heads up about tomorrow's edition... This week, Dan Ferris and I interviewed Marc Chaikin, our friend and the founder of our corporate affiliate Chaikin Analytics, on our Stansberry Investor Hour podcast. Marc has more than five decades of professional investing experience and wisdom to share. We spoke about how the presidential-election cycle tends to affect stocks, artificial intelligence, and a bunch of other topics. Marc also shared some of his favorite stories, including one about famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller, a former client of his who shares an interest in sailing... I learned you damn well better be prepared when you were in a room with him, because he was the smartest guy in the room... He's a good sailor and he's smart as a whip... And on Wednesday, [Marc is debuting an exciting free presentation]( about his market outlook and tips for navigating the rest of this year and beyond. We'll share excerpts of our conversation tomorrow. But if you want to hear our entire interview with Marc right now, you can find it on our [Stansberry Research YouTube page]( [InvestorHour.com]( or wherever you get your podcasts. Greg Diamond: Buy Weakness When You See It In this week's Diamond's Edge video, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond shares his observations about the conflicting signals from the major U.S. indexes and sectors and makes one suggestion for active traders... As a Digest reader, you get the first look at Greg's new Diamond's Edge video each Monday. For more free videos, [check out our YouTube page](... And if you're interested in more research and analysis from Greg, [click here for information]( on how to get started with a subscription to his Ten Stock Trader advisory. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: ['They All Laughed at Me... Until Banks Started Collapsing']( Some folks laughed at this Wall Street veteran when he predicted last year's bank collapses. Now, he's going public with a new must-see prediction that is virtually guaranteed to surprise you – and could have [huge repercussions for your money through the rest of 2024 (no matter who wins the White House)](. --------------------------------------------------------------- [Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon Get Approval to Trade Soaring AI Currency]( In the biggest AI story that few are talking about, Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon have gotten approval from the U.S. federal government to buy, sell, and trade a little-known currency that will power AI. It's not gold, bitcoin, or any other crypto... But demand is skyrocketing, and prices have soared as much as 10,000% in a single week. The Financial Times reports it could become "a new world reserve currency." Whitney Tilson traveled to the AI epicenter of the world to find the best way to profit. [See his full report here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 6/21/24): Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Brown & Brown (BRO), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Commvault Systems (CVLT), Alphabet (GOOGL), KraneShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index Fund (KEMX), Microsoft (MSFT), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Verisk Analytics (VRSK). In today's mailbag, feedback on [Dan's latest Friday essay about the hype around artificial intelligence]( ("AI")... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Another fun read from Dan, if acerbic." – Subscriber Kristian P. "While Dan's warning is correct that the current hype around AI is overblown, the fact is that this technology is not going away and will influence our future in ways not yet imagined. "Are companies like Nvidia overvalued at this point? Almost certainly. But as with any speculative investment, if you don't understand the underlying metrics, or in this case technology and use cases, you shouldn't be investing in it. For example, AI in clinical trials and developing precision medicine is one of the great use cases for this technology. There will certainly be profitable investment opportunities in this arena if one does the appropriate research." – Subscriber Scott P. "What's the betting that within three years or less, no one will be talking about AI – and everyone will be talking about the latest productive app based on AI?" – Stansberry Alliance member Nick A. "Everybody on the AI bandwagon is missing a key piece so far. Cooling! I supply boiler tubes to all the majors who cool the server farm buildings... They are projecting 100% growth as far as they can see." – Stansberry Alliance member Chuck A. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland June 24, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,433.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,428.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 903.8% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 734.1% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 626.3% Retirement Millionaire Doc HSY Hershey 12/07/07 450.2% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 442.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 434.5% Retirement Millionaire Doc NVO Novo Nordisk 12/05/19 412.0% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Gula TTD The Trade Desk 10/17/19 374.6% Stansberry Innovations Report Engel Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter/Gula 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 1 Extreme Value Ferris 1 Stansberry Innovations Report Engel --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,604.8% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,166.5% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 772.5% Crypto Capital Wade AGI/USD Delysium AI 01/16/24 353.7% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants PNC-WS 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies^ MAXR 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet Silvergate Capital SI 1.95 years 681% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol BAND/USD 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra LUNA/USD 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh POLYX/USD 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier FRONT/USD 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin BNB/USD 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. Or e-mail info@stansberryresearch.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2024 Stansberry Research. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Stansberry Research, 1125 N Charles St, Baltimore, MD 21201 or [stansberryresearch.com](. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Stansberry Research does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Stansberry Research forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Stansberry Research (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.