A Rare Market Setup

Stocks' best first quarter in five years... Inflation is on pace for 5% growth in 2024... Could the Fed 'pivot' – higher?... The 'Next Warren Buffett' is headed to prison... A rare market setup... Don't miss Porter's free presentation... [Stansberry Research Logo] Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 [Stansberry Digest] Stocks' best first quarter in five years... Inflation is on pace for 5% growth in 2024... Could the Fed 'pivot' – higher?... The 'Next Warren Buffett' is headed to prison... A rare market setup... [Don't miss Porter's free presentation](... --------------------------------------------------------------- The S&P 500 just finished its best first quarter in five years... The "churning higher" U.S. stock market, as we described about a month ago, continued trending upward in March. The U.S. benchmark index moved higher by another 3% last month, bringing its year-to-date total to around 10%. That's good for the best first quarter for the S&P 500 Index since 2019, which was also the last time a year began with three consecutive positive months. I (Corey McLaughlin) could almost repeat our analysis from the last time we took a "step back" and looked at the breadth, or market "health" indicators, back [in the February 27 edition](... Long-term technical trends have remained bullish, and market breadth is still relatively strong. Roughly 60% of stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange ("NYSE") are trading above their 200-day moving averages, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high on Friday. As we write today, roughly 64% of NYSE-listed stocks are above their 200-day moving averages and the equal-weighted S&P 500 closed out last week by hitting a new all-time high. This isn't to say there aren't risks to consider in the market today... Consider the "bearish catalyst" that Dan Ferris described [on Thursday]( for instance... or high(er) inflation, which I'll explain momentarily... or escalation of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East (just today, an alleged Israeli air strike on an Iranian consular building in Syria killed a high-ranking Iranian military official) and what that could mean for higher prices in the world. But based on nominal stock prices and trends, Mr. Market is taking the stairs higher, which you typically see in a bull market. The other end of this analogy is that the market likes to take the elevator down. Inflation is on pace for nearly 5% growth in 2024... The biggest economic data to watch last week was the latest round of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge: the core personal consumption expenditures ("PCE") price index. It came out on Friday morning when the U.S. markets were closed for the Easter holiday weekend... Core PCE, which the Fed purports to use to make decisions, showed 2.8% annual growth and rose 0.3% for the month. (Core PCE excludes food and energy prices – two huge costs for people and businesses, of course. As we've said before, ignoring these points makes little sense.) These numbers mean that inflation keeps coming down from its peak of a few years ago, but as we've reported recently, inflation numbers in the shorter term have been picking up in the past few months. Monthly growth of 0.3%, coming after 0.5% growth in January, puts annual inflation on pace for nearly 5% (a monthly average of 0.4%, for a 4.8% annual pace) rather than the Fed's 2% annual goal. Yet Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank's other members have remained steadfast in all recent public statements and projections in saying rate cuts are coming later this year. Maybe they will, particularly if the labor market weakens more. (The next key "nonfarm payroll" report for March comes this Friday, by the way.) But if higher inflation numbers persist and unemployment remains low, the markets could be in for a major shock if the central bank ends up "pivoting" higher rather than lower – much like in 2022. Or the Fed could lose more credibility by cutting rates even amid strong economic growth. In any case, here's a scenario to consider: High(er) inflation continues, which might not be entirely bad news for the stock market in the short term... But eventually, the higher inflation would become recognized as a big problem again – much like in the 1970s, or when the Fed finally got around to acknowledging it in late 2021. The case for inflation hedges... Dan and I talked about this on this week's episode of the Stansberry Investor Hour, which [just came out](. (Our guest is George Gammon of the Rebel Capitalist Show, and we talked about a bunch of different topics, but first Dan and I talked about inflation.) As Dan said... We could be on the verge of making a pretty big mistake here. It could be the Arthur Burns moment from the 1970s, when [the Fed] thought they were OK and weren't. Inflation was up and to the right, but in a sinusoidal pattern. It was up, then it was down, then up higher, then down not quite as lower, then up way higher – and it was really, really difficult. The market didn't seem too concerned with this scenario today, though, but maybe a little... In the first trading day in the U.S. since PCE numbers came out Friday morning, the S&P 500 closed down slightly, the Russell 2000 Index was off 1%, and energy stocks (a good inflation hedge) showed the most significant gains, up nearly 1%. Meanwhile, another proven inflation hedge – gold – continues to rise in price. After breaking above the key $2,000-per-ounce level about a month ago, a price that had been the technical "resistance" level for the past few years, gold is trading higher than $2,200 now. Gold is up another 2% since the latest U.S. inflation data came out Friday. A quick note on 'SBF'... We covered the Sam Bankman-Fried/FTX scandal from [the very beginning in November 2022]( and I like to follow through with the resolution of a major story. So let's put a bow on the "SBF" saga now that we can. On Thursday, the 32-year-old Bankman-Fried – who engineered a multibillion-dollar fraud using the cryptocurrency exchange FTX – was sentenced to 25 years in prison and ordered to forfeit $11 billion. Before the sentence was handed down, Bankman-Fried addressed a New York City court directly for about 20 minutes. He said his "useful life is probably over," said customers' money should be returned in full, and apologized to those who worked for him... I'm sorry about what happened at every stage... It haunts me every day. Judge Lewis Kaplan didn't buy SBF's remorse, saying it was an "act"... He did it because he wanted to be a hugely, hugely politically influential person in this country. He knew it was wrong, he knew it was criminal, he regrets that he made a very bad bet about the likelihood of being caught. And that's that. The "Next Warren Buffett?" as Fortune magazine asked on its cover before the scandal broke... Bankman-Fried is not. He's expected to serve his time in a Northern California prison, close to his family's home. Lastly, don't miss Porter's free presentation... As you may have heard, our founder Porter Stansberry debuted a free presentation last week, and it will go offline by later this week... So make sure you check it out if you haven't made time yet... In short, as we've said recently, Porter has spotted a "market anomaly" that has emerged in a select group of stocks that could lead to unparalleled returns... and soon. And if you know Porter, or even if you don't, you'll want to listen. For new readers who might not be familiar, Porter started Stansberry Research more than 20 years ago. If you've never heard him give a presentation before, well, you should... Among other things, he famously predicted the fall of General Motors... recommended bitcoin when it traded around $10,000... and foresaw much of the financial and cultural unrest we've seen in the U.S. over the past few years. He wrote books about it that have proved prescient. And there's much more we could say... In this new presentation, Porter sits down on camera with our friend Joel Litman, founder of our corporate affiliate Altimetry. They share what this market "anomaly" is... how to take advantage of it in your portfolio... and why the opportunity for unparalleled profits might not last much longer... This story doesn't concern one that you've likely heard already... It's not about a market crash or a banking crisis... the "Magnificent Seven" or the presidential election... or options or cryptocurrency. Yet it could create enormous wealth for those who position themselves correctly, Porter and Joel say. It does have something to do with one of the deepest and longest corrections in one area of the market in more than 20 years... something that shouldn't even exist in the market... but does because of today's interest-rate environment. It's a rare market behavior that folks on Wall Street are quietly talking about, and it recently caused several small stocks to shoot up as much as 170% in a single day... 100% in a month... and 275% in about two weeks. Porter has been trying to bring this story to the public's attention because it happens only once or twice in a lifetime. He says it could be the most important investing story of the year – and much more. As Porter explains during the broadcast... If you understand what is happening today... if you understand why it is happening... and if you have the courage to take advantage of it... it could be the only investing story you need to pay attention to, ever again. So, be sure to check out the free replay now. Because of this setup's short-term nature, the opportunity won't last forever, and the presentation won't be online for much longer. [Click here to get all the details]( from this free, can't-miss event. What's Next? Greg's Technical Signals to Watch In this week's free Diamond's Edge, Ten Stock Trader editor Greg Diamond details why he's expecting an "inflection point" for stocks later this week and early next week... which technical indicators he's watching... and what trades he's eyeing next... As a Digest reader, you get the first look at Greg's new Diamond's Edge video each Monday. For more free videos, [check out our YouTube page](... And, if you're interested in more research and analysis from Greg, [click here for information]( on how to get started with a subscription to his Ten Stock Trader advisory. --------------------------------------------------------------- Recommended Links: [Here's What You Missed Last Week]( A rare market anomaly just caused one company to jump 275% in only two weeks... and another to skyrocket 170% IN A SINGLE TRADING DAY. It has nothing to do with the "Magnificent Seven" or the presidential election... and it doesn't involve trading options or bitcoin. Yet two renowned experts believe it may be the absolute biggest "no-brainer" moneymaking opportunity of 2024. [Get the full details here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- ['Gold's FINAL Bull Market Has Just Begun...']( The last time an event this seismic played out, gold surged 2,382%... yet most Americans had no clue it was even happening. Today, a Stansberry Research senior partner and former Goldman Sachs vice president is pulling back the curtain on this strange story playing out in the upper echelons of world finance. And even if you've never owned an ounce of gold, this could impact everything from your investments to your mortgage. [Get the time-sensitive details here](. --------------------------------------------------------------- New 52-week highs (as of 3/28/24): AbbVie (ABBV), Amazon (AMZN), Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR), Atkore (ATKR), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Brown & Brown (BRO), Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust (CEF), Chord Energy (CHRD), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), Pacer U.S. Cash Cows 100 Fund (COWZ), Copart (CPRT), Cintas (CTAS), Commvault Systems (CVLT), D.R. Horton (DHI), Disney (DIS), Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund (EMD), Enterprise Products Partners (EPD), Equinox Gold (EQX), Enerplus (ERF), Enstar (ESGR), Edwards Lifesciences (EW), Diamondback Energy (FANG), First Trust Natural Gas Fund (FCG), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Fidelity National Financial (FNF), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Core S&P Small-Cap Fund (IJR), iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Lennar (LEN), VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Fund (MOAT), Motorola Solutions (MSI), NVR (NVR), PulteGroup (PHM), Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS), Phillips 66 (PSX), Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Ryder System (R), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Value Fund (SPYV), Summit Materials (SUM), Cambria Shareholder Yield Fund (SYLD), Target (TGT), Travelers (TRV), ProShares Ultra Gold (UGL), ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG), Viper Energy (VNOM), W.R. Berkley (WRB), Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE), and SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Fund (XOP). In today's mailbag, feedback on [Dan Ferris' Thursday Digest](... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Dan's comments in the Digest about the risks of tightly coupled systems made me think of the video of the Key Bridge falling. The boat only took out one or two pillars... I hope we don't see that happen to the stock market." – Subscriber Jim S. "Your post about circuit breakers and potential big market moves down was a great read... on a micro level you're seeing this already, e.g. if you owned Palo Alto Networks or Lululemon earlier this year you saw 'after hours' reaction to earnings reports that dropped each stock 75 points before you had your cereal in the AM!! No wonder folks don't trust those Wall Street types!" – Subscriber Jerry G. "Throughout most of the 1990's the economy was strong. The internet made its debut and there was growing optimism about the ways the new technology would transform the way people live. The tech-heavy Nasdaq increased from approx. 1,000 to more than 5,000 from 1995 to 2000. Companies that had nothing to do with technology or the internet changed their name to include '.com' in the hopes that investors would bid up their shares. "Today, the Fed assures us that the economy is strong. There is growing optimism about the ways that new AI technology will transform the way people live. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has reached all-time highs, increasing from 9,500 [in early February 2020] to more than 16,300 [in] 2024. Companies that have nothing to do with technology are changing their mission statements and for some their names to include 'AI' in hopes that investors will bid up their shares. "On April 14, 2000 the Nasdaq fell nearly 10 percent, its second-biggest single-day decline ever at the time. By the time the market bottomed in October 2002, the index had lost nearly 80 percent of its value. "April 2024? Red sky in the morn, sailors be warned..." – Subscriber Jerry P. All the best, Corey McLaughlin Baltimore, Maryland April 1, 2024 --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,372.8% Retirement Millionaire Doc MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,336.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 02/21/20 1,173.5% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 905.0% Extreme Value Ferris WRB W.R. Berkley 03/16/12 808.9% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 645.6% Retirement Millionaire Doc BTC/USD Bitcoin 01/16/20 624.7% Stansberry Innovations Report Wade HSY Hershey 12/07/07 477.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter AFG American Financial 10/12/12 467.7% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter TT Trane Technologies 04/12/18 381.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 10 Totals 4 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Stansberry Innovations Report Wade 1 Extreme Value Ferris --------------------------------------------------------------- Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Stock Buy Date Return Publication Analyst wstETH Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,291.8% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 1,760.6% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,292.6% Crypto Capital Wade MATIC/USD Polygon 02/25/21 888.5% Crypto Capital Wade AGI/USD Delysium AI 01/16/24 544.2% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. --------------------------------------------------------------- Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Symbol Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia^* NVDA 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft^ MSFT 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Band Protocol crypto 0.32 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra crypto 0.41 years 1,164% Crypto Capital Wade Inovio Pharma.^ INO 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold^ SA 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Frontier crypto 0.08 years 978% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin crypto 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade Nvidia^* NVDA 4.12 years 777% Venture Tech. Lashmet Intellia Therapeutics NTLA 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest [click here](. Published by Stansberry Research. You’re receiving this e-mail at {EMAIL}. 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