Instead of NVDA Let’s Talk About This

It's a mad, mad market. Hi Reader, Hello and Happy Friday. Big Bill Spencer here… Normally, you’d be reading today’s True Market Insider article on the TMI website. But we rolled out a major upgrade to our AI-powered portal recently and we’re experiencing some issues. So instead of asking you to click over, I’m going to put the entire update in this email. Thank you for your patience! Monday is Labor Day and the stock market and TMI are closed. My family and I plan to celebrate the meaning and dignity of work by doing literally none of it. Earlier this week I received an email from a subscriber named “All of Us” saying: “Dear Bill, could you please NOT talk about Nvidia? Just this once?” Happy to oblige, All of Us! (Just kidding about the email of course…) We’re in what TMI Founder Chris Rowe memorably calls a “Bambi market.” Like the famous Disney deer, it has weak, skinny legs. Here’s my analogy for the current stock market. Imagine you walk into a grocery store and see that all the shelves look full. Products are stacked end-to-end in every aisle. You grab a box of pop tarts and notice that there are no other boxes behind the one you chose. Just empty space. The adjacent shelf holds boxes of cornflakes. You grab one and again see nothing but empty space behind it. This happens in aisle after aisle. The shelves look filled, but really there’s only one layer of product. Bottom line? The inventory of this establishment is not nearly as strong as it appears from the outside. If you have this same shopping experience in store after store you’d conclude that something was wrong. If the media tried telling you the economy was bursting with strength, you’d conclude that something was wrong with the media. The current market is giving investors a version of that experience. The major averages have been breaking new all-time highs (the shelves look full)... But there’s scant volume to go along with advances in price (there’s a lot of empty space). Low volume is everywhere. It’s in the mega-cap SPY… In the small-cap IWM… And In the micro-cap IWC… There’s more… Last Friday, our #1 indicator, the NYSE BPI flipped from a bearish column of O’s to a bullish column of X‘s. Here’s the BPI as of yesterday’s close. Look at the number by the blue arrow – 51.33. That number tells us that 51.33% of stocks that trade on the NYSE – barely half of them – currently trade on Buy signals on their own price charts. That means just half of the stocks out there are strong enough to break above key resistance levels. The red-shaded rectangle in the middle extends left-to-right from January, 2022 to the present. And it rises from the 50% box to the 60% box. The last time the chart was at a reading of 58 or higher – meaning, the last time 58% of stocks or more were trading on Buy signals – was back in January of 2022. That’s more than two and a half years ago. Here’s the S&P 500. Not only is the index above that long green uptrend line, but it’s only about a single percentage point away from its recent all-time high. So we’re in a strange landscape. On the one hand, we have an S&P poised to put in a new high (the S&P has posted a 17% gain so far in 2024). On top of that, we have a key indicator (the NYSE BPI) that just made a bullish reversal. But for all that, it’s been more than two and a half years since we saw more than 58% of stocks trading on Buy signals. And if you look at that red rectangle on the BPI chart again, you can see that, over that time frame, there were usually only around 50% of stocks on Buy signals. But it bears repeating. Long-term we’re in a strong bull market. The US stock market is the only game in town for investors needing a place to park their capital. FIxed Income… Cash… Currencies… Those assets are nowhere. It’s US stocks or the highway. This is a market that will reward caution and punish excess. So don’t back up the truck on a dip. And don’t devote too much of your portfolio to bearish positions, just some of it, say, 5%. Sell some laggards to raise cash. Get some bearish exposure in case a decline does come. When price/volume action shows the market heading higher with strong momentum, you’ll be glad you have that cash to put into new bullish positions. Or add to positions that were strong during the previous rally and held their own during the decline. Have a great long weekend and don’t labor too hard. Or at all. Thanks for reading, DISCLAIMER ©2024 by True Market Insiders, LLC, Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This Newsletter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of: True Market Insiders, 3301 N University Dr Suite 100, Coral Springs, FL 33065 The information contained herein has been prepared without regard to any particular investor's investment objectives, financial situation, and needs. Accordingly, investors should not act on any recommendation (express or implied) or information in this material without obtaining specific advice from their financial advisors and should not rely on information herein as the primary basis for their investment decisions. True Market Insiders LLC is not an investment advisor and is not licensed to give specific financial advice. The chairman of True Market Insiders, Chris Rowe, is also the CEO, CIO and owner of Rowe Wealth Management LLC, which is not owned by and is not the owner of True Market Insiders. True Market Insiders will remove email addresses from our mailing lists if that email address hasn’t interacted with our content during a prolonged period. If you think your email was removed in error, please contact customer service at 855.822.0269 or support@truemarketinsiders.com. [Unsubscribe]( | [|]( Policy](