Interest rates at highest level in 20+ years
â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â â Is there a difference between a recession and a "noticeable slowdown?" We are about to find out. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by a quarter of a point, bringing the benchmark borrowing rate to 5.25%-5.5%. That means interest rates are at the highest level in 22 years.
There will be a lot of excitable commentary about all this... but the truth is that this was precisely what was expected. If anything, it's a good sign because Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doesn't seem too worked up either about inflation or about the possibility of a recession. However, if I had to worry about one or the other... I'd worry about recession. Here's why. Consider the Chair's comments...
"If you go through a period where inflation expectations are not anchored and inflation is volatile, it interferes with people's lives and with economic activity," he said. "That's the thing we really need to avoid, and will avoid." Emphasis mine... but I think it's warranted. The fact is that Powell has established his reputation as an inflation hawk and put the credibility of the Fed on the line in the inflation fight. If there's a recession... well, that's what most people were expecting. If there's an inflation comeback, that's the entire legitimacy of the central bank.
Consider this too, which sounds almost like a high school football coach telling a kid who is hurt on the field to suck it up. "The worst outcome for everyone, of course, would be not to deal with inflation now and not get it done," he said. "Whatever the short term social costs of getting inflation under control, the longer term social costs of failing to do so are greater and the historical record is very, very clear on that."
That's practically insane in its clarity. Yeah, there are costs to what we are doing, but the alternative is worse. So suck it up, there will be no relief this year. Powell practically ruled it out. "I'm saying we would be comfortable cutting rates when we're comfortable cutting rates, and that won't be this year, I don't think it would be," he said. Look, say what you will about the Fed... but the signals are clear. There's no mystery here. Fighting inflation > economic growth.
Right now, the economy is holding up and earnings look good. But I'd worry more about the economic engine sputtering than inflation spiking.
It's clear Powell will crash this plane before letting that happen again. Keep Moving, Corey Snyder
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