China absolutely STUNS on GDP

Population is declining, but short-term signs VERY strong ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ The best of times and the worst of times when it comes to China. For the first time in decades, China's population is declining. Though this is putting it bluntly, a declining population generally is bad news for GDP. Traders usually favor an open market for goods, labor, and migration because it allows everyone to use competitive advantage and maximize efficiency. Of course, once you get out of Econ 101, you realize the world isn't quite that simple. For one thing, people aren't just goods that can cross borders without consequences to society. For another, even free trade imposes certain costs on a country. You may be able to prove that in the grand scheme of things it is more efficient - but there are certain people in the country who are disproportionately going to pay a cost if jobs move to other countries. They shouldn't be expected to just grin and bear it when their jobs are destroyed. More than this, "experts" often overlook the threat that this kind of system can pose to certain political orders - especially China's. China wanted economic growth - but the Communist Party doesn't want to give up political control. We can debate what the right or wrong move is when it comes to the West. What's inarguable is that in China, the government is desperately trying to control the political consequences of economic change. That's the big story of the last few years - the consolidation of power under President Xi Jinping, the sidelining of business leaders (remember Jack Ma?) as the Communist Party regains center stage, the emergence of domestic dissent in response to "zero COVID," and the return of geopolitical competition between the United States and China. That's a lot to have hitting the global economy. In fact, it's not much of a stretch to say that the whole premise of globalization is that there would be a productive working relationship between China and the United States. That suddenly seems questionable. So we've got a strange situation. In broad strokes, China looks like it's in trouble. Economic growth last year was far less than what the government wanted. At the same time, China's recent economic performance actually beat expectations. Though retail sales were down 1.8% from the year before, analysts thought they would see a catastrophic decline of 8.6%. Can China claw back from zero-COVID? And can it find a peaceful replacement for advanced chip production, now that the United States is trying to muscle it out of the market? The future of globalization will depend on the answers to those questions. More accurately, the answers will determine whether globalization even has a future - or whether we all look back and laugh at the predictions of an "End of History" after the Cold War. Keep Moving, TRADE OF THE DECADE THE MOST CRITICAL STOCK TO OWN NOW Mr. X identifies "the most important company that you’ve never heard of…" and how you can take advantage of it to reap potentially life-changing profits. [CLICK THE LINK HERE BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE]( ) WORD ON THE STREET GS Reports, China's Population Declines, Davos Underway - The Powers That Be - The World Economic Forum is underway in Davos, with some of the most powerful people in the world gathering to debate global policies. However, though there may be an overall agenda, some very old fashioned debates are re-emerging. President Joe Biden's focus on American manufacturing, especially for electric vehicles, is leading to anger among European allies, who may offer their own subsidies. For all the talk about conspiracy, it looks like there's still continuing national competition. - Chinese Population Decline Buries The Lede - China's population has declined for the first time in 60 years. However, though that will present some problems for the would-be superpower, the bigger news for investors is the blockbuster fourth quarter it enjoyed. Though fourth quarter GDP was down because of zero-COVID, it was far better than many feared. Yearly GDP was 3% for 2022. Industrial production in December was also a full percentage point larger than anticipated. Some analysts had gone so far as to predict an outright decline in GDP. Didn't happen. China is back. For now... - Goldman Sachs Expected To Post Major Decline - It's no secret that investment banking is in a bad place right now - but how long will it last? We'll get a good look when Goldman Sachs posts earnings... just about the time you are getting this. Earnings are expected to be almost 50% per share lower compared to last year and revenue down by almost 15%. A smaller decline will likely be seen as a major success. - Good News - Dollar Is Dropping - A decline in the value of the dollar isn't generally seen as good news for the American economy, but these are strange times. Morgan Stanley analysts have predicted the dollar would fall modestly against the euro and the pound. The overall impact should reduce global inflation. HOT SPOTS: What's Going on in Geopolitics - Ukraine Faces Tough Choice in Bakhmut - It's been the most consistent headline about the war in Ukraine for weeks - Russia is making tactical gains around the city of Bakhmut in Donbas. However, though Western experts say the city has little strategic significance, the Russians disagree. Perhaps more importantly, it's now become a political symbol. As Russian forces advance, Ukrainian leadership faces a tough decision between fighting for territory or facing a political debacle by withdrawing as the strategic situation deteriorates. Ukraine needs a reserve that can be trained with the new weapons Western nations are promising. But no one wants to admit that the defense of the city may have been a mistake. - British Offer Tanks For Ukraine – Prime Minister Rishi Sunak promised heavy weapons systems for Ukraine including tanks and artillery. Fourteen Challenger tanks have specifically been pledged. The Kremlin shrugged it off. "They are using as a tool to achieve their anti-Russian ends," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. "These tanks are burning and will burn like the rest." - "Operation Mosi" Underway In South Africa - While Western countries are backing Ukraine, South Africa retains its strategic partnership with Russia and China. Joint naval exercises will begin next month in South African territorial waters involving Russian and Chinese vessels, as well as a South African naval platform. The opposition Democratic Alliance blasted the move to go ahead with the exercises, but the dominant African National Congress has ruled South Africa since the end of apartheid and is in no political danger. JPMorgan declares this new oil boom is a SUPER bull for oil and says "an energy revolution is underway." Which is why Chief Investment Strategist, Adam O’Dell, has just released the details on his No. 1 oil stock of 2023. [Click here for more details.]( ) CUTTING EDGE: What[']( )s Happening In Tech - Will Wyoming Ban EVs? - If the last few years have taught us anything, it's that politics can derail things that once seemed politically inevitable. A group of six GOP state legislators in Wyoming have proposed an outright ban on EVs. That doesn't sound so extreme when you consider that other states have already moved towards banning gas powered vehicles. However, Rep. Jim Anderson, who introduced the bill, is saying that it won't outright ban vehicles but is simply a statement of opposition to bans on gas-powered cars. Still, bills like this have a way of taking on momentum of their own. - TikTok Bows To US On Algorithms – The algorithm controls all. It can guide media coverage, make or break businesses online, and even have a big outcome on elections. So it's a big deal that the Chinese company ByteDance, owner of TikTok, has reportedly agreed to give American officials oversight of its algorithms. American officials have been increasingly concerned about the Chinese company's possible impact on American politics and its ability to mine user data. Since President Donald Trump, some American officials have publicly toyed with banning TikTok in the USA. Looks like the threats worked. - Oh Good, Scientists Can Control Lightning Now - Now, look, I know it's probably a good thing but I think we all know how this story will end. French scientists with the Polytechnic Institute of Paris have successfully guided lightning strikes from thunderclouds towards areas where they won't cause damage. "The findings extend the current understanding of laser physics in the atmosphere and may aid in the development of novel lightning protection strategies," said author Dr. Aurelian Houard. Still, I just have to ask - if they can target lightning away from certain areas, doesn't that mean they will be able to direct it towards certain areas? Drone warfare has nothing on commanding the heavens themselves FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION You’ve probably heard me say this before: "I like it… I don’t love it." And when looking at the S&P 500, that’s about where I am… It's a suspenseful day for Wall Street as we wait for the Goldman Sachs earnings report and take in the good news from China's reopening. That leads to the obvious question - is the bottom in? Is the pain over? If you missed it, start your week by carefully reading Corey's breakdown on what to look for when it comes to SPX. Remember, it's not just about getting a prediction about what could happen, but knowing exactly what signals to read in real-time. This is an essential beginning to your trading week. [THE BOTTOM IS IN... AGAIN]( ) Enjoying Dawn Report? Learn something, made some money? SHARE YOUR STORY WITH US OR TELL US HOW TO SERVE YOU BETTER. Let us know at info@rogueinvesting.com You’re receiving this email because you're signed up for alerts from Dawn Report. 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