🍿 Netflix’s big pivot

…and regulators turn a serious eye on crypto [Disclosures](   The ads are coming (Christophe Archambault/AFP via Getty Images)   Last Week’s Market Moves   Dow Jones 31,288 (-0.16%) S&P 500 3,863 (-0.93%) Nasdaq 11,452 (-1.57%) Bitcoin $20,960 (-3.77%) Dow Jones 31,288 (-0.16%) S&P 500 3,863 (-0.93%) Nasdaq 11,452 (-1.57%) Bitcoin $20,960 (-3.77%) Hey Snackers, [BMW’s]( in the hot seat: the luxury carmaker has ignited heated debate after [launching]( an $18/month seat-warming subscription. Just press the butt-on. Stocks ticked down for the week, though not as dramatically as we’ve been used to lately. The S&P 500 spiked nearly 2% on Friday after news that US consumers [boosted]( their spending in June despite soaring prices. Btw... Do you want to start getting Snacks daily? Or prefer to unsubscribe? Manage your subscription preferences [here](. Down Netflix’s earnings could reveal millions of lost subscribers — now it’s pivoting to ads for growth, but might lose its identity [Netflix]( is down... in more ways than one. On Friday, the struggling streamer was briefly [down]( for some users — putting shows like "The Umbrella Academy" and "How to Build a Sex Room" out of reach. But downtime isn't the Flix's only problem: the stock's down 70% this year as subscriptions sag and revenue growth slows. - Skip intro: Probably what Netflix wishes it could do with quarterly earnings, which it reports tomorrow. If first-quarter results are any indication, things aren't going well. - Sub-pocalypse: Netflix lost 200K subscribers when it was [expected]( to add 2.5M. Blame post-lockdown #subscripturation. - Next episode: Netflix [said]( it expected to lose 2M subscribers in the second quarter (aka: the one it reports tomorrow). This year it’s [cut]( 450 jobs. Stranger things’ve happened... In 2019, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings said his streamer would never do ads, “period.” Now: Netflix is doing ads. In April, it [announced]( it would launch a cheaper ad tier. The goal: attract and retain subs. High prices (#flation) + subscription overload (#subscripuration) have made it harder for consumers to afford multiple streamers. - Soft landing: Last week Netflix said it was [partnering]( with [Microsoft]( to build out ads. Microsoft's ad biz isn't as big as that of its rivals, like [Google]( and [Comcast]( but it's one of the few big techies without streaming ties. - Hard pivot: This year Netflix has [hiked]( prices to make up for sagging growth and support its original content spend, which ballooned to [$13B+]( last year (“Stranger Things” season four reportedly cost [$30M]( per episode). THE TAKEAWAY To keep your identity, you may have to lose it… To maintain its rep as the #1 streamer famous for original content hits, Netflix must do something we thought it never would: Hulu-fy itself with ads. After its first subscriber loss in a decade, Netflix had to choose between cutting down on content spending or cutting the cost of its service. Ads could be a big profit puppy, but might cost Netflix its frictionless prestige. Zoom Out Stories we’re watching... $2 croissant… keep the exchange. One euro was worth one US dollar last week (and briefly less) for the [first]( time in decades. Investors have ditched euros as comparatively higher US interest rates strengthen the $, while Russia’s war on Ukraine darkens Europe’s growth outlook. It’s good for American tourists (think: cheaper paella and prosecco): 7X more Americans are taking Eurotrips this year. But a strong dollar makes US exports more expensive (think: pricier Pop-Tarts), which could dampen spending and investing from abroad. Crypto regulators... mount up. After Celsius' collapse and TerraUSD's [implosion]( regulators are speaking up. The Fed's vice chair said it's time to establish clear rules for what's permitted in crypto, and both the European Central Bank and the Financial Stability Board (a global regulator) called for stablecoin regs. Meanwhile, the US Treasury's asking for public comment on crypto's risks as it preps a report for President Biden. And as retail investors continue to feel crypto winter's chill, regulatory pressure will likely keep heating up. Events Coming up this week... Running on E… [Tesla]( reports on Wednesday, but we already know that its record delivery streak is over. Last quarter, Tesla deliveries [fell]( for the first time in over two years (blame: China’s Covid lockdown). To ramp up output, Tesla’s upgrading its Berlin and Shanghai factories — but that’ll halt production at the major plants for weeks. Elon’s “super bad feeling” about the economy led to 200+ layoffs in June and (another) set of Tesla price hikes. Still, Tesla demand is hot. Its Model Y was China's best-selling [SUV]( in June. A shot in the arm... [Johnson & Johnson]( drops quarterly earnings tomorrow, and investors have good vibes (the stock’s up this year, and that’s saying a lot). Analysts expect quarter-over-quarter sales growth for the 136-year-old company, which has become more associated with vaccines than Tylenol and Band-Aids. J&J had forecast up to $3.5B in vax sales this year, but walked that back as demand for shots sagged. Now health officials are pushing booster shots to combat the "worst version" of the virus, and US Covid hospitalizations are on the rise — nearing 6K a day. ICYMI Last week's highlights... - [Spin]( Former pandemic darling [Peloton]( will stop making its own bikes and treads and start outsourcing all manufacturing. Peloton spent hundreds of millions to build up its hardware production capacity, but is now focusing on subscription revenue. - [NVM]( Elon Musk is trying to back out of buying [Twitter]( for $44B (a 38% premium to Twitter’s value when he sealed the deal). Musk blames bots but Twitter’s suing him to close the deal, saying he blew off meetings. - [Gulp]( From gas and rent to dental care and airfare, US consumer prices spiked 9.1% last month from a year earlier. It was the fastest inflation pace since 1981, and the Fed might get even more aggro with its rate hikes. What else we're Snackin' - [Lipstuck]( These ugly market conditions could give Sephora and [Estée Lauder]( a glow-up: lipstick sales often rise during downturns as shoppers splurge on tiny pleasures. Right now the “lipstick index” is rising. - [Bottom]( Economists are watching for “capitulation,” the final big stock selloff that marks the end of a downturn. But it’s hard to spot in real time, and analysts say this one may last months (or years). - [Cheugy]( Zuck’s era of social dominance may be over: TikTok recently became the first app not owned by [Meta]( to hit 3.5B downloads. Since 2018, the Tok’s been downloaded more than any other app. Want your Snacks daily? The Daily Newsletter Get fresh takes on financial news every week day. Try a sample: 📦 [Amazon’s Prime time]( • Jul 15, 2022 👛 [June inflation gloom]( • Jul 14, 2022 🚴 [Peloton’s hard pivot]( • Jul 13, 2022 [Subscribe to the Daily]( Snack Fact Of the Day “Stranger Things” season four attracted 7.2B viewing minutes from May 30 to June 5 — by far the highest weekly total ever recorded for any streaming [Read more]( This Week - Monday: Earnings expected from Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Prologis, and JB Hunt - Tuesday: Earnings expected from Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Netflix, Hasbro, and Halliburton - Wednesday: Earnings expected from Tesla, Abbott Labs, and Nasdaq - Thursday: Jobless claims. Earnings expected from Domino's, AT&T, Quest Diagnostics, Boston Beer Co., Philip Morris International, Tractor Supply Co., Capital One Financial, Union Pacific, SAP, Equifax, AutoNation, and Dow - Friday: Earnings expected from Verizon, NextEra Energy, and American Express Authors of this Snacks own: shares of Netflix, Twitter, Tesla, Comcast, Microsoft, and Google ID: 2296855 Robinhood Snacks newsletters reflect the opinions of only the authors who are associated persons of Robinhood Financial LLC (Member [SIPC]( and do not reflect the views of Robinhood Markets, Inc. or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. They are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation of an investment strategy or to buy or sell any security, digital asset (cryptocurrency, etc) in any account. They are also not research reports and are not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. 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