🛍️ The Prime Day effect

…and school districts ban smartphones   Hot Prime summer (Sherwood)   Last Week’s Market Moves   Dow Jones 39,119 (-0.08%) S&P 500 5,460 (-0.08%) Nasdaq 17,733 (+0.24%) Bitcoin $60,234 (-6.86%) Dow Jones 39,119 (-0.08%) S&P 500 5,460 (-0.08%) Nasdaq 17,733 (+0.24%) Bitcoin $60,234 (-6.86%) Hey Snackers, Chipotle’s [burrito surveillance]( problem intensifies: as social-media users complain that burrito bowls are getting smaller, an analyst [studied]( 75 identical orders to show that the portion-size beef may be justified. Markets [closed out]( the first half of the year and investors checked “AI frenzy” off their resolutions list. The techy Nasdaq rose 19% in H1 and the S&P 500 climbed 14%, even as Nvidia volatility gave markets whiplash last week. On Friday the Fed’s fave inflation gauge signaled prices could be cooling, boosting rate-cut hopes. Primed Amazon braces for a Prime Day showdown as rivals ramp up summer sales events Breakin’ out the wish list… for Amazon’s 10th Prime Day next week. The Prime membership, launched in 2005, has been a key growth driver for the $2T company, luring subscribers with perks like its members-only two-day sales event (in 2021, Bezos’ baby said it had ~200M global Prime subs). Amazon said it had its largest sales day on record during last year’s Prime Day (analysts estimated shoppers splurged nearly $13B). Now Amazon’s hoping to run it back: - A-lists: It teamed up with Megan Thee Stallion to showcase the rapper’s “must have” picks and drop a music video called “It’s Prime Day”. Amazon also got actor Millie Bobby Brown and influencers like Alix Earle to promo deals ahead of the event. The Prime effect… 65% of Americans said they planned to do more bargain hunting this year as sticky inflation strains wallets. Rival retailers have been taking a page from Amazon’s playbook by ramping up their own July sales. Walmart recently announced its first “Walmart Deals,” and it’s billing the five-day sale next week as its largest savings event ever. Target debuted “Circle Week” in April with discounts for loyalty members, and will have another this month. And Best Buy’s bringing back “Black Friday in July.” - Perk’d up: Retailers have also taken on Amazon by rolling out paid memberships that are cheaper than Prime (like Target Circle 360 and Walmart Plus), with offers like unlimited same-day delivery and early deal access. - Not just summer: Target, Walmart, Walgreens, and others have announced price cuts across thousands of items as consumers cool on discretionary buys. US consumer spending barely rose in May, after a drop in April. THE TAKEAWAY The bargain bin is the new battleground… Spending has been resilient, but Americans are increasingly hunting for deals. Chinese ecomm titans Shein and Temu are rapidly gaining US market share with ultra-affordable offerings. Amazon’s trying to protect its empire: it said last week that it [planned]( to launch a new discount section (think: sub $20 price tag) to sell unbranded goods from China. [Read this online]( Events Coming up this week Corona and lime… Booze biggie Constellation Brands — which sells beers like Corona, Modelo, and Pacifico in the US — cracks open earnings on Wednesday as Americans stock their coolers for BBQs. Last year, Modelo Especial surpassed AB InBev’s Bud Light as America’s best-selling beer. In April, Constellation reported that quarterly beer sales bubbled up 10.5% while wine and spirits sales sagged. Mexican brews like Pacifico and Modelo are [gaining buzz]( Constellation said Pacifico, already a staple in California, is growing in East Coast “beach markets.” Baby, you’re a firework… and apparently you’re worth a lot. July Fourth firework sales are expected to boom this year. The American Pyrotechnics Association forecast a record $2.4B in sales — up from $1B prepandemic — as revelers pop off Black Cats, Roman candles, and Snakes. One reason: the industry group said supply-chain kinks got smoked out, making consumer fireworks 5% to 10% less expensive. But not everyone’s sparkler-ing with joy. Cities concerned about air quality and fires have cracked down, with some turning to drone shows. Zoom out Stories we’re watching Passin’ notes… is back. The US’s No. 2 school district (Los Angeles) just banned smartphones and social media, and the biggest district (NYC) said it’s going to do the same. CA and NY want to pass statewide bans, similar to those in Indiana and Florida. To make the measures stick, many districts put teens’ phones in lockers and pouches. Anti-phone actions follow a growing wave of concern over teens’ mental health: the surgeon general’s called for social-media warning labels as social cos (Meta, TikTok, X) go to court to answer for their platforms’ negative effects. Hoistin’ the sails… As streamers keep jacking prices, online piracy has made a comeback. Now Hollywood’s cracking down. The Motion Picture Association last week hired a head pirate chaser from the FBI. It’s also lobbying for more power to block piracy sites. Visits to illegal streamers are up 13% since 2019, costing the US ~$30B/year in lost revenue. This month, five people were convicted of running an illegal streamer that prosecutors say offered more content than Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video combined for $10/month. The crackdown’s working: the # of piracy sites has plummeted ~85% since 2019. What else we're Snackin' - [WFH]( As techies like Meta and Amazon keep pushing RTO, workers across the US have refused to swap their slippers for leather lace-ups. Last year, 35% of all US employees did at least some work from home. - [Pill]( Insurance cos are charging folks for contraception that under the Affordable Care Act should be free. One survey said that 25% of women with private insurance are unnecessarily paying for birth control. - [ETA]( Boeing further delayed the return of its first crewed Starliner flight, which carried NASA astronauts to the ISS more than three weeks ago. NASA said they’re not stranded in space. Snack Fact Of the Day A Tour de France cyclist burns about 6K calories a day — the equivalent of 58 bananas [Read more]( This Week - Monday: US manufacturing activity data. National Postal Worker Day in US. Wimbledon begins - Tuesday: US job openings. Earnings expected from MSC Industrial Direct - Wednesday: ADP private-payroll figures. US services activity data. US trade data for May. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published. US markets close at 1 p.m. ET ahead of the July Fourth holiday. Earnings expected from Constellation Brands - Thursday: US markets closed for Independence Day. Nathan's hot-dog-eating contest - Friday: US jobs report for June. 30th anniversary of Jeff Bezos founding Amazon. F1 British Grand Prix weekend revs up. Earnings expected from Holcim Authors of this Snacks own shares of: Amazon, Nvidia, and Walmart Sherwood Media, LLC produces fresh and unique perspectives on topical financial news and is a fully owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc., and any views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of any other Robinhood affiliate... [See more]( [Sherwood Terms and Conditions]( • [Our Editorial Standards]( • [Contact Us](mailto:hellosnacks@sherwoodmedia.com) • [Privacy Policy]( • [Advertise with us](mailto:advertising@sherwoodmedia.com) [Unsubscribe](