If youâre looking for a reason to be optimistic about our future, here it is. [The Jolt with Stephen McBride] The next transformational innovation Matt Ridley (the original [Rational Optimist]() and I talked about the next big megatrend over breakfast a few weeks ago. Megatrends are ignited by transformational innovations. Matt pointed out that transformational innovations often come in 50-year waves. His grandparents were born before cars. They lived to see a man walk on the moon. Transportation was totally transformed in one lifetime. Matt enjoyed the digital revolution. He grew up using rotary dial phones. Now, he carries a supercomputer in his pocket. - Matt believes biotech is the next transformational megatrend. A mechanic can plug a cable into a car, instantly diagnose a problem, and fix it in an hour. Yet the human body largely remains a mystery. There are still thousands of uncurable diseases. Thatâs about to transform. I recently told you about the [first-ever gene-editing (CRISPR) therapy that was just approved in the US and the UK](. This involves extracting cells, editing them in a lab, and putting them back into a patientâs body. Now, weâre seeing new tech that allows doctors to edit cells inside patientsâ bodies. This is a game-changer for two reasons⦠#1: Most cells canât be extracted for editing. So weâll be able to tackle more diseases. #2: Itâs far less expensive, making treatment more affordable. This is a huge deal. Diseases from breast cancer to Alzheimerâs are caused by a few rogue genes. By editing a handful of genes, we could all but eliminate todayâs biggest killers. If youâre looking for a reason to be optimistic about our future, here it is. The medical leaps we can make over the next 50 years could make iPhones look inconsequential. My research even shows that enhancing intelligence with gene editing will become a real âthingâ in the next decade. Say âhelloâ to the future. Investors must pay attention to this industry. Chris Wood and I recently added a world-class biotech company to the [Disruption Investor]( portfolio. - Physical AIs are coming. [Chatbots like GPT-4 are amazing, and you should be using them.]( But AIâs biggest impact will come from getting âphysical.â A new demo from startup Figure AIâwhich just raised $675 million from OpenAI, Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT)âtells me weâre on the cusp of a breakout moment for robotics. Watch this [two-minute clip](. In it, a humanoid robot puts dishes away, holds a natural conversation, and answers complex questions. Source: Figure AI There are lots of robots already. But theyâre mechanical and made for one specific task. Figure AI is unlike anything before because it has ChatGPT for a brain. This gives it the ability to learn from what it sees. The robot wasnât preprogrammed to pick up trash, or even taught what trash is. It learns by watching. For example, the guy in the demo tells the robot heâs hungry. The robot hands him the apple from the table. âWhy?â he asks. âIt was the only edible item I could provide you from the tableâ responds the robot. Impressive. Figureâs upcoming fleet of robots will all share a centralized brain. That means when one robot learns something, theyâll all know that thing. Imagine having a coffee-making, pancake-flipping, dish-washing assistant. And just like AI, this is the worst robots are ever going to be. I think these AI robots will revive âMade in the USA.â Theyâll soon do human-like work in factories. They could pluck empty bins off a shelf, then turn around and weld bolts onto a door. Imagine a handful of people overseeing an army of robots to run a factory. Weâll have 100Xâeven 1,000Xâmore factories producing stuff for a fraction of todayâs cost. My âmental modelâ for this is ATMs and bank tellers. When ATMs were introduced in the 1980s, bank tellers worried theyâd be out of a job. But ATMs made it cheaper to operate a branch⦠leading to more branches⦠and ultimately more tellers. When American factories automate, we could make quality stuff cheaper than China. If THAT happens (itâs already started), take whatâs possible and multiply it by 100X. This could create trillions of dollars in wealth for Americaâand the companies behind it. But investors, beware. Robotics ETFs (BOTZ and ROBO) are duds. Theyâre packed full of bad businesses that barely grow. [Remember the Disruption Investor way.]( A megatrend alone isnât enough. You need a great business operating within that megatrend to be worthy of your investment. Itâs no wonder these ETFs have underperformed. Continue to avoid them. Instead, be selective and only own fast-growing, profitable robotics businesses. [Thatâs what weâre doing in Disruption Investor.]( - Todayâs dose of optimism⦠Iâm sure youâve heard humans are destroying the Amazon by chopping down football fieldsâ worth of rainforest each day. But did you know there are more trees on planet Earth today than at any other time in the past century? In fact, an area the size of Texas and Alaska combined was added to global tree cover since 1982. This great chart from our friends over at Human Progress shows the amount of land covered by trees in major countries. The US,  Japan, the UK, and France are at or near record highs⦠and trending higher. Source: Human Progress Score one for the Rational Optimists. Have a great weekend. See you on Monday. Stephen McBride
Chief Analyst, RiskHedge PS: With bitcoin recently hitting new highs, Iâve been getting more crypto questionsâincluding what to expect with âthe halvingâ right around the corner... Iâd like to get your thoughts, too. If you have a minute, [please fill out this three-question survey](. Iâd appreciate it. Suggested Reading... [Start investing
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